Super Bowl LIX Specials: A 10-Point Win or an Overtime Contest?

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00:00What is more likely Donnie right side either team when Super Bowl 59 by exactly?

00:07Ten points not nine not eleven exactly ten or the game goes to overtime

00:13What is more likely a ten-point win for Casey or Philadelphia or an additional ten minutes in Super Bowl 59?

00:23Five years ago Ben

00:24I would have said give me either team to win by exactly ten points because it makes sense because in the past

00:30analytically, you weren't maybe so

00:32Opportunistic if we can use that word kindly

00:34The reason I bring this up is overtime has a great chance because if you're down eight if you're down seven

00:4030 30 27 27 24 24 you're down three points with 30 seconds up to go

00:45You're not trying for a touchdown. You kick the field goal

00:47The reason I bring up the ten points is how many times do we see Ben where the analytical approaches, right?

00:52You're down 17 points with five minutes to go you score the touchdown most people like yes

00:58Just kick the extra point and make it ten

01:00but the analytics actually say you should go for two to make it nine because the chances of you scoring the touchdown to make it

01:06Ten you kicking the field goal, then you know scoring the touchdown

01:10You still have to go to extras and then you might not even get the football and then you lose just by that sense

01:14Because the other schemes was a touchdown you stop them in extras

01:17You see what I'm getting or it doesn't go your way because the Super Bowl is actually a little bit different than the regular

01:21Season in overtime, but for me the analytics come in where I don't think you ever try to get it to ten anymore

01:26It's usually you always want to get it under ten an opportunity

01:29understand this the game could end up 30 to 20 because that's just what the score is with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter

01:34And nobody scores the rest of the way, but I can see it happen

01:38Like oh, I'm gonna get this exactly attend dick

01:40Most people probably like why is he going for two?

01:42Don't you just want to make it that to score a game and not miss it now get an actual touchdown and a two-point conversion

01:48That's the only reason why the new analytics would push me to say the game goes to overtime at 13 to 1 the way

01:54I would want to go