💸DEVALUACIÓN EN BRASIL Y SOJA PARA ABAJO: ¿CÓMO IMPACTA A LA ARGENTINA?

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El real de Brasil alcanzó un nuevo mínimo histórico al cerrar en 6,135 por dólar, marcando una depreciación de más del 1% en la jornada, en una economía que tiene un 4% de inflación anual.

Transcript

00:00Good evening everyone, welcome to the night of the 24th, welcome to MMC.

00:04Today was a day in which the dollar was still moving,

00:09which was totally asleep, and for the third consecutive day,

00:13it rose again, ending a little above the 1,200 pesos, the dollar.

00:19And the economic team showed that,

00:23despite the variations being just over 10% in three days,

00:29the government showed that it doesn't want the financial dollars to move much,

00:36that mark the rhythm of the dollar blue.

00:39In fact, today there was, when the financial dollars were also rising,

00:43the dollar MEP, which is the dollar within the financial system,

00:47with the purchase and sale of public securities, the dollar BOLSA,

00:51when it was also rising 2-3% per day,

00:55and completing an increase of 10% in the last three days.

00:59Remember that the dollar was almost perforating the 1,000 pesos a week ago,

01:07and now it is going to the 1,200 pesos.

01:12A very strong intervention, very strong in the bond market.

01:16Everyone there started to see the central bank of Bauxili,

01:20where, evidently, today there was a strong move to put a limit on the rise of the dollar,

01:27and that generated that the financial dollar,

01:30which is the one that operates much more importantly than the dollar blue,

01:34at some point in the day, when it was already rising to 1,160, 1,165 pesos,

01:41accompanying the rise of the blue, well, it went down.

01:46And the government stopped that financial dollar,

01:50and in some way that is the dollar that arbitrates with the dollar blue,

01:53which also, as I was saying, today closed at 1,205 pesos.

01:59The Minister of Economy has said, nothing happens,

02:01this has to do with people who go abroad and want to buy dollar bills,

02:06the blue moves because of that, it is not relevant,

02:10but evidently the government wants to have everything controlled,

02:15and in the intervention with the CEPO, the official dollar,

02:18it adds intervention to the financial dollar,

02:20so that the gap does not reopen, does not open again.

02:25What does exist is a concern with what is happening in Brazil,

02:29with two key prices for the Argentine economy at the moment.

02:34On the one hand, what is happening in Brazil,

02:36which today continued to devalue, depreciating the real,

02:39that is, there is a very strong race against the real,

02:42the Brazilian Central Bank is selling a lot of dollars,

02:45trying to stop the rise of the dollar,

02:48increasing the interest rate, trying to stop that exchange rate,

02:53and it is not achieving it.

02:54Today the dollar in Brazil, in fact,

02:57got close to six reals with 30 cents,

03:01a rise of 3%, a rise in the day of 3%,

03:06to give you an idea, it is an economy that has 4% annual inflation,

03:10and the dollar rises 3% in a day.

03:14And this dollar, which is now almost 6 reals with 30 cents,

03:20a scenario that no economist predicted two or three months ago,

03:24no one thought that the dollar in Brazil could exceed 6 reals.

03:28At the beginning of the year, in January, last summer,

03:32the dollar in Brazil was 4 reals with 80,

03:364 reals with 70 cents.

03:38Today it is exceeding 6 reals with 30 cents,

03:4330% up, an economy that, I insist, has 4% inflation.

03:47Brazil is cheapening very quickly in dollars.

03:50This, obviously, for the Argentines who go to Brazil,

03:53means a benefit, because everything will be much cheaper in Brazil

03:57than last summer.

03:59Argentina has had more than 170% inflation in dollars in the last year,

04:04and Brazil is cheapening in dollars.

04:07This is a very big incentive for Argentines going to Brazil,

04:10but the main concern of the government is not the Argentines

04:13who are going to spend the summer in Brazil,

04:15but what happens with the industry, with the Argentine productive sector,

04:19if Brazil is depreciating its currency,

04:22it is also decelerating its level of activity,

04:25and if in that context there is an incentive for Brazilian imports

04:31to cover the Argentine market.

04:33The other data is soy.

04:35Since the beginning of Javier Milley's government,

04:38soy has gone from $480 to $350.

04:43That is, the dollar is rising in Brazil.

04:45There it is, the next chart.

04:47Let's show it quickly, you can see the curves.

04:49Be careful, that plays against economic policy,

04:54that is, there is wind against it.

04:57Compared to this, soy was almost $500 a ton,

05:04today it is $350,

05:06at the beginning of Javier Milley's government it was $500,

05:08today it is $350,

05:10and the dollar in Brazil, which was below 5 reales per dollar,

05:13is above 6 reales with 30 cents.

05:17Now let's talk to Pablo Goldín,

05:19what does this imply for Argentine economic policy,

05:21which is trying to stabilize, a stabilization plan,

05:24with at least Brazil and external prices playing against it,

05:29in an economy that obviously needs to anchor the dollar to anchor prices.

05:33I'm calling Javier Mozo on the phone,

05:35he's in San Fernando because today a real tragedy happened

05:38at the San Fernando airport.

05:40Javier, how are you?

05:43Maxi, how are you? Good afternoon.

05:45Yes, unfortunately a real tragedy here around 1 and 18 in the afternoon.

05:50A plane that came from Punta del Este,

05:56the causes are not known, it will have to be unveiled,

05:58for that the experts of the Argentine Federal Police are working,

06:02for that, until a few minutes ago,

06:04the Federal Judge Sandra Arroyo Salgado,

06:06who is in charge of the investigation,

06:09will have to reveal the causes for which this plane

06:13did not land at the 1,800 meters long

06:16that the San Fernando International Airport has,

06:20but unfortunately, as is usually said, it went on for a long time.

06:25It went on for a long time.

06:26Let's show, look, we have a dome and a camera on the mobile phone.

06:30In the dome we are going to show the runway,

06:32because at this precise moment the runway is illuminated.

06:35The airport is obviously not operational.

06:37The runway is illuminated and until a few minutes ago,

06:40Mario Polese, our mobile phone technician,

06:42told me, you can clearly see the marks of the plane's deck

06:47at the end of the runway that suddenly bend to the right.

06:53Of course, they bend to the right because if the plane,

06:56at the speed that it followed, followed to the right, Maxi, guys,

07:01it was very likely that it would impact with a much larger number of houses

07:07that are no more than 100 meters from what is the end of that runway

07:12that you are seeing in images.

07:14What the pilot of the plane Fernández Loza did

07:19is try to dodge and try to get into one of the streets here.

07:25He did what he could, because it is speculated,

07:29the researchers are believing that the plane was coming

07:32at a higher speed than it should to be able to land.

07:37So that means that along the runway,

07:42it landed in the last quarter of the runway

07:46when it should have done it much earlier.

07:49This made it, unfortunately, unable to stop it.

07:52This is calculated, we will have to see the reasons.

07:55And it impacted against a tree, against vehicles,

07:59and ended up exploding.

08:02It exploded on several occasions, but the final explosion

08:05and the smoke columns, the dense smoke,

08:08were against a house where there were people.

08:11Many people were saved.

08:13They had several gods apart.

08:16Many inhabitants, many neighbors of the area.

08:19Unfortunately, the pilot and co-pilot of this aircraft

08:23belongs to the businessman Jorge Brito.

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