Rebel forces claim Aleppo: HTS capitalises on 'popular discontent'

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00:00Now, to get a better sense of what's happening in the north of Syria, we can speak now with

00:04Marc Perrini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and former EU ambassador to Turkey.

00:11Thank you, Pierre. Thank you for joining us on France 24. Now, Syria has been in civil war for

00:18more than a decade, but intense fighting had somewhat subsided. Why has it flared up again now?

00:25Well, I think the surprise operation by HTS in the province of Aleppo rests primarily on popular

00:35discontent, because as you've said, the Assad regime has retaken control of the province and

00:43the city of Aleppo in 2016, but has not restored the state authority in the city, and more

00:52importantly, has not restored normal life for the citizens. So there is a huge discontent.

00:59And at the same time, Russia is, of course, otherwise busy in Ukraine, and the Iranian

01:07forces, the Pazdurans, have seen their command and control system in Syria degraded by Israel

01:16for other reasons linked to the situation in Lebanon. So that was the opportunity for

01:22Ayatollah Shah. Now, how long this is going to last, we don't know. It all depends, I think,

01:30at this point, on the Russian attitude. So kind of capitalizing on an opportunity. So

01:36the surprise attacks then began on Wednesday. That was the day when a ceasefire between Israel

01:41and Lebanon's Hezbollah took effect. Is there then any significance to the timing of this?

01:47Probably only remotely. I think the hope of the HCS leadership in this operation is to capitalize

01:59on popular discontent, on the fact that the Syrian army, the regime army, is very weak,

02:07and is really sustained and operational only because Russia is there. And also, as I said,

02:17the Iranian fighters were a little bit lost at this point. Now, Russia cannot afford to lose

02:27Syria for two reasons. One is diplomatic. Whether we like it or not, Syria is the only diplomatic

02:37success, so to say, of Russia. It's a success typical of Russian operations outside. That is,

02:45they prevail. Their client regime, Assad, is prevailing, but they are sitting on a field of

02:51rubble. Yet it is a small operation for Syria, for Russia in Syria, I mean. So they can afford

03:01to continue. They have an important airbase in Latakia. So they will continue. The second reason

03:09is that Russia, this airbase in particular, is a springboard for Russian operations in Africa,

03:18in the Sahel, in Central Africa. Their airplanes, their cargo planes can stop there. Their fighter

03:24planes can stop there, be refueled, and fly towards Russia. So it has also a strategic

03:32importance for Russia. And could you tell us more about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,

03:39the Islamist group that's leading the fighting now and its influence in northern Syria?

03:46Well, they are influential in the province of Idlib, immediately west of Aleppo, and now in

03:53Aleppo, not so much elsewhere. They've been initially trained and equipped by Turkey.

03:59And now the difficulty is, of course, that Turkey is indirectly involved in this operation. Not

04:06probably that it triggered the operation. It's not looking like it's in the interest of Turkey.

04:12But they've been historically behind HTS. Turkey's overwhelming objective in Syria is different.

04:21It's to keep a large, very deep buffer zone in the north of Syria, at the border of Turkey,

04:29to keep the Syrian Kurdish forces away from Turkish territory. They've done that in several

04:37places, mostly to the east of Aleppo. They're present also in the Idlib province to the west.

04:45They want to keep that. They also want to reconcile with the Assad regime that has been

04:52stated officially by President Erdogan. But of course, the main condition that Bashar

04:58al-Assad is putting to normalization, let's say, is that the entire Turkish contingent

05:05evacuates to the north of Syria, which, of course, is not the objective of Ankara.

05:12So we're stuck, essentially. And the likelihood in the coming days is that in order to

05:21rescue the Assad regime and help it regain control of the Aleppo province and city,

05:28they will do it as they've done everywhere, that is, with massive air force strikes,

05:35which involves few soldiers, few airmen, but will destroy a bit further the city of Aleppo and

05:49will kill a number of people and also damage the historical heritage that is present in Aleppo.

05:57So many regional players are involved in this. Israel also says it struck Hezbollah targets

06:02near Syria's border with Lebanon. Is there a risk that the situation in Syria could

06:07threaten to reverse the relative calm in Lebanon?

06:14Probably not in the sense that whenever Israel wanted to strike either Hezbollah or

06:23the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, at least their command and control and their ammunition depot

06:33in Syria, they've done it. So the link there is not very direct. This is a Syrian-Syrian operation

06:45with immense confusion and probably a very strong assault of the Russian and Syrians

06:56combined through the air force, which will do a lot of damage, alas.

07:02Well, Marc Pierini from Carnegie Europe, thank you so much for your analysis.

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