AgriCast Episode 12: November 29, 2024 | BOM’s summer weather predictions - video Dailymotion

BOM climatologist Caitlin Minney discusses what Australians can expect this summer, from rainfall patterns to temperature trends and potential risks.

Transcript

00:00Welcome to AgriCast, Kirsten Dipros here and to look at our summer forecast, we have climatologist

00:14at the Bureau of Meteorology, Caitlin Minney. So I think the biggest question on everybody's

00:18lips is rainfall. How much is it going to rain over summer in different parts of Australia?

00:24The summer long range forecast is forecasting that it's likely that most of Australia

00:29will have above median rainfall over summer. And the signal is strongest in December. So

00:36it is likely to very likely, especially across northern parts of Western and Eastern Australia,

00:43for rainfall to be above average for December. How hot is it going to be this summer? We've

00:48had some cooler climates in parts of the country. It is likely to be warmer than average over

00:55parts of the east and the far southwest. However, typical summer temperatures are more likely for

01:02parts of Western Australia and also parts of New South Wales. Our long range forecast indicates

01:08that it's likely to be cooler than average over parts of Northern and Western Australia. Minimum

01:13temperatures forecast to be very likely in the top 20% on record for much of Northern and Western

01:21Australia. So the heat is likely to be coming more from the minimum temperatures rather than

01:26the maximum temperatures. What about Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia in particular? Are

01:32they looking at a typical summer? Parts of eastern New South Wales are likely to have close to typical

01:39summer temperatures. But there is an increased chance of maximum temperatures being higher than

01:47average across most of Victoria, Tasmania, much of South Australia, as well as Western New South

01:54Wales. What about the risk of bushfires? Australia's fire agencies have released the seasonal bushfire

02:02outlook for summer and it's looking for there to be an increased risk of fire for large parts of

02:08the southern states. It's important to note that areas that don't have an increased risk of fire

02:13can still have serious and destructive bushfires over the summer. Back on rainfall, in the eastern

02:20states we're likely to see higher rainfall in parts. Any idea what parts those might be? It's mostly

02:29around eastern Queensland and southeast Queensland, but much of New South Wales and parts of Victoria

02:35as well as eastern Tasmania do have increased chances of above average rainfall. Caitlin Minney,

02:42thank you so much for giving us the summer forecast.