Oregon vs. Michigan: Ducks Favored by Over Two TDs

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00:00The spread for this game, it is more than two touchdowns in favor of the Ducks.

00:08The third time this year that Michigan, the reigning national title winners, will be booked

00:13as an underdog inside the big house.

00:16The fourth time overall this season, the Maize and Blue have been booked as a dog.

00:21Is it a deserving number in favor of Oregon on the road today?

00:25I believe so.

00:26What I would say to you is I don't have any issues with this number.

00:29If it was under 14 and a half, I think I'd have to start to look towards the Ducks winning

00:33this game by two touchdowns.

00:35If this thing was 17 and a half, certainly if it was in the 21 range, then okay, I would

00:39start to look towards Michigan here.

00:41But the Wolverines did a great job winning against Michigan State in that matchup.

00:46We talked about the spread math heading into that game where the books completely sold,

00:50sold, sold on the Wolverines.

00:52But all of a sudden, they get a little bit of a bounce back here.

00:55I think Oregon is tricky, man.

00:57The Ducks defensively have done a phenomenal job.

01:02The only team that's thrown a passing touchdown against them in Big Ten play was Ohio State.

01:08What does that say about the Big Ten or what does that say about Oregon's defense?

01:12But again, is Michigan back on QB4, QB1 with Davis Warren?

01:18Do they really have the chops here to change that?

01:21And I think just to add this quickly, Joe, you know, it's funny, but we're looking at

01:24this as, can Michigan cover?

01:27I am not, and I don't know if you are, I am not looking at this as, can Michigan pull

01:31off their win of the season?

01:33I don't think it's on the board.

01:34Yeah, I think it's a long shot, but you can never say never in terms of college football.

01:39The one reason why I would buy in, Kev, to saying Michigan potentially could strike the

01:44upset, they still only have one home loss in three years.

01:47You have the number one ranked team in the country coming into your house, right?

01:51So that is always from an emotional standpoint, added intensity for the home team.

01:58And they are the defending national champs, whether you want to buy into that or not,

02:01different type of roster.

02:03But you know, they need to run the football to be in this matchup.

02:06The one thing that I have been impressed with from Oregon is after they get the victory

02:10over Ohio State, they then pound Purdue and cover.

02:14They pound a very good Illinois team that was catching 21 and a half.

02:17They beat them by double digits.

02:20They put up 500 total yards of offense, 298 through the air, another 200 on the ground.

02:26And they contained Luke Altmeier in that rushing attack as well, held them to a buck 32.

02:31They were in long third down situations throughout the day.

02:34We know this is going to be a difficult effort for Michigan's offense.

02:37The way that they could stay within this number, run the football, get it to a four quarter

02:41game, win the turnover battle.

02:44It's a tough ask, but the more that this plays out throughout the day, I'm starting to like

02:48the points with Michigan.

02:50I did take Donovan Edwards for 60 plus, and I think he gets paid there today at plus 240.

02:55Fourth game as a dog this year for the Mays in blue.

02:58Third time as a home underdog in the big house this season.

03:02Only five total times in the nine years under Jim Harbaugh was Michigan a home underdog.

03:08Only once in the last three seasons prior to this campaign.

03:12That was at the end of 2021 in the game at home against Ohio state.

03:17Now Lisa, you got, we talked about the ducks early in this season.

03:21They did not cover in their first two big 10 games.

03:24They have covered in their last three in four of their five big 10 contests.

03:28They have held the opposing offense to 300 yards or less Ohio state.

03:33The only one to go over that margin.

03:35And of course the Buckeyes offense still very, very solid.

03:38And when you look at what this defense has done up front on the other side of the football

03:43is key as well.

03:44Dylan Gabriel sacked seven times in the opening two games of this year, just three times in

03:49the last six.

03:50And Dylan Gabriel, Joe enters this Saturday against the Wolverines with a passing yards

03:54prop of two 74 and a hook and the second best price to win a Heisman trophy.

03:59What does Oregon's offense need to do to win this game comfortably in Ann Arbor?

04:03Push tempo.

04:04Averaging 300 passing yards per game.

04:06They were able to push tempo against Ohio state.

04:09Get that game into the thirties.

04:10You get this game into the thirties.

04:12It's lights out.

04:13I believe for Michigan and Davis Warren, the only way that they could be in this matchup,

04:17I think a 24 20 type of game, 21 17 low scoring sustained drives.

04:23If Dylan Gabriel goes off and throws for two 98 and two or three touchdowns, it's going

04:27to be lights out.

04:28That'll open up the rushing attack for Jordan James.

04:31We've seen this back end too of Oregon right now.

04:33They've given up 173 passing yards per game.

04:37The only game that they were really exploited was with Will Howard and those playmakers

04:41on the outside.

04:42We know that up until this point, Michigan hasn't done that or has shown that exhibited

04:47that throughout the season.

04:49So if you're Michigan, you have to take some shots to open up the rushing attack.

04:53Tough ass, but I still like the points with the home dog.

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