Macron's choice on Western Sahara may end up affecting energy supplies, analyst says

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00:00There's a special UN session on the future of the Western Sahara.

00:04It's a territory disputed between Morocco and Algeria.

00:07The UN Security Council has voted to extend the mandate of the UN mission for the referendum

00:13in Western Sahara, that's known as MINORSO, for another year.

00:18They're calling on the parties to resume negotiations to achieve a just and lasting and mutually

00:24acceptable solution for the region.

00:26Now Emmanuel Macron, on his visit to Morocco, where he met with King Mohamed VI, pledged

00:33French support for, and he called it, Moroccan sovereignty in the Western Sahara.

00:42After a speech asking the Moroccan government to do more to stem the tide of illegal immigration

00:46into France, the French president gave Moroccan lawmakers something to cheer about.

00:53France publicly took a stance on the future of Western Sahara.

00:57For France, the present and future of this territory fall within the framework of Moroccan

01:01sovereignty.

01:06France now joins other nations, including Spain, the United States and Israel, in backing

01:11Morocco's control over the contested area.

01:14The translation of this principle into concrete images was to update the maps.

01:23This has been done an hour ago.

01:25Indeed, on the website of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the map of Morocco now

01:30includes Western Sahara and the following text.

01:34For France, the present and the future of the Sahara lie within the framework of Moroccan

01:38sovereignty.

01:39The autonomy plan proposed by Morocco in 2007 constitutes the only basis for achieving

01:45a just, lasting and negotiated political solution, in accordance with the resolutions of the

01:51United Nations Security Council.

01:54The territory of Western Sahara has been a centre of conflict for 50 years between Morocco,

02:00which has sent hundreds of thousands of settlers into the area, and the indigenous Sahrawi

02:05independence fighters of the Polisario Front, which are supported by Algeria.

02:11France's backing of Morocco's territorial claim has angered Algeria, which responded

02:16by withdrawing its ambassador to Paris.

02:19Nonetheless, French recognition of Moroccan control has a strong economic draw.

02:25On Tuesday, Macron pledged an unspecified sum of investments in sustainable support

02:30initiatives to benefit local populations in Western Sahara, and a French cultural institute

02:36is due to open in Dakhla.

02:39Several French companies have also signed agreements to produce green energy and e-fuels

02:44in its vast expanses of sun-drenched land.

02:49That's the scene.

02:50Let's get the analysis.

02:51William Lawrence joins us, professor of political science at the American University.

02:55William Lawrence, thank you for joining us here on France 24.

02:57We always appreciate your time and your expert knowledge on the area we're speaking about.

03:02Has Emmanuel Macron made an error in endorsing Morocco's claim and thereby snubbing Algeria?

03:10He hasn't made an error vis-a-vis France's overriding interest of having a strong relationship

03:15with Morocco, and we can get into some of the aspects of that.

03:18But he's made an error vis-a-vis Algeria, no question.

03:22I mean, Macron is doing this because of the huge business upside for Morocco to fix the

03:28crisis that had been going on with Morocco since 2020, which was making a lot of the

03:32existing cooperation, including all the trade and investments, not work properly.

03:36You know, there's the migration issues, the security cooperation issues.

03:40All of those have an upside with Macron doing what he's doing.

03:45But as you know, this is sort of a zero-sum problem in North Africa when it comes to Western

03:50Sahara, and by making the crisis with Algeria worse, which can even affect energy supplies

03:57in Europe in the context of the Ukraine war and all of that, you know, pushing away the

04:02Algerians creates its own set of problems.

04:05So France has gone from a balancing act, which was leading to sort of problems with both

04:10sides, to not a balancing act, choosing a side, going with Morocco and, you know, sort

04:17of double be damned on the Algerian side of the equation, which will have consequences.

04:21Indeed, Algeria has undoubted resources in reserve there, obviously oil, massive amounts

04:29there perhaps yet to be tapped into.

04:31Morocco, on the other hand, forging ahead, creating massive fields of solar panels to

04:38create electricity which can be exported.

04:40Both countries have a really big case economically going forward, don't they?

04:46Absolutely.

04:47I mean, Morocco is linked to the European energy grid now, that huge desert tech project

04:52and other renewable energy projects.

04:54I was the NATO project director for several years of a wind hydrogen project in Morocco,

04:59which is cutting edge.

05:00I mean, in renewables, Morocco is leading the way, and Algeria is actually not too happy

05:04about that either.

05:06But you know, Morocco put huge investments in this.

05:10The investments in renewables, for example, were an environmental positive, but a financial

05:14negative.

05:15They were more expensive than what they were yielding, and Morocco makes big sacrifices

05:20economically and otherwise because of its Western Sahara policies, which is so much

05:24of a focus of its foreign policy.

05:26As you know, the king famously said, we see the whole world through the prism of Western

05:30Sahara, which is true, but it has an upside and a downside.

05:34You know, whereas Algeria has lots of resources too, human resources, energy resources, interest

05:40in trade, interest in rapprochement with Europe, and they're getting pushed away these days

05:45which has its own consequences, pushed more towards Russia, towards China.

05:50They're trying to have strengthened ties with Egypt and Libya and Sudan as sort of a counterbalance

05:54to what Morocco is doing.

05:56And that has geopolitical consequences, which are unforeseen, you know, in creating more

06:02friction between Algeria and its neighbors to the north.

06:05What is it that they want about Western Sahara?

06:08I mean, clearly there's this issue of pride and a national sense of belonging, I suppose.

06:14But is there something else under the ground that they're after?

06:17Well, under the ground is a loaded question.

06:20There's a lot under the ground, but there's minerals and energy resources and lots of

06:25other things.

06:26But, you know, I've been writing and studying this issue for nearly 40 years.

06:30And I think, you know, each side tends to instrumentalize the interests of the other.

06:35You know, one side says it's our political and our cultural heritage.

06:39And the other side is just interested in economic benefits.

06:42And increasingly in the last 15 years, which I've also published on, they're framing it

06:46in religious terms.

06:48So Morocco says, you know, it's our sacred duty to defend this.

06:51And the Algerians are saying, you know, national liberalization, like for the Palestinians,

06:55is a sacred duty for us, too.

06:57And it's preached in the mosques.

06:58And in the end, each side, I think, and the world community has to take the other side's

07:03views more seriously.

07:05You know, self-determination for Sahrawis is really, really important.

07:10And Morocco's views that its kingdom was broken up in, you know, in the Middle Ages

07:14by or perhaps the Middle Ages by the European powers is a viable argument, too.

07:19And ultimately, you know, my rubric for all of this, you know, whether analyzing domestic

07:24politics or Western Sahara, is what's the best benefit for the population?

07:29And we have not yet seen a best benefit yet for the Western Sahara population, a lot of

07:36which is still in exile in camps in southern Algeria and not agreeing to what's going on.

07:42And, you know, when those tens of thousands of people can go home, we will have accomplished

07:47something.

07:48And right now they don't want to go home because what has been set up for them in Western Sahara

07:52is not independence, which they've been fighting for for so many years, but it's Moroccan sovereignty,

07:59a sovereignty which can be heavy handed at times.

08:02And that's what the Sahrawi people are afraid of.

08:06You know, they often say we have no problems with Morocco or its government.

08:08We just don't like their mohabbarets, you know, they're tough guys, you know, that make

08:14life tough for us down here.

08:16So, you know, I've been saying for decades, you know, as the region democratizes and as

08:22human rights are a higher concern, this problem resolves itself.

08:26And instead, we're having backsliding, you know, all around.

08:30And until those human rights and human dignity issues gets resolved, something the U.S. should

08:35be caring about more in the world, too, we'll have more peace and security in the region

08:40and a future that people can sign up to rather than be told to sign up to.

08:45William Lawrence, as always, thank you for joining us and shedding light on what is a

08:49very fraught story.

08:50And, of course, we'll come back to it at a later date.

08:53Thank you once again, William Lawrence, professor of political science, excuse me, at the American

08:57University, joining us there from Washington, D.C.

08:59Time for business.

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