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Report
Macron's choice on Western Sahara may end up affecting energy supplies, analyst says
FRANCE 24 English
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10/31/2024
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00:00
There's a special UN session on the future of the Western Sahara.
00:04
It's a territory disputed between Morocco and Algeria.
00:07
The UN Security Council has voted to extend the mandate of the UN mission for the referendum
00:13
in Western Sahara, that's known as MINORSO, for another year.
00:18
They're calling on the parties to resume negotiations to achieve a just and lasting and mutually
00:24
acceptable solution for the region.
00:26
Now Emmanuel Macron, on his visit to Morocco, where he met with King Mohamed VI, pledged
00:33
French support for, and he called it, Moroccan sovereignty in the Western Sahara.
00:42
After a speech asking the Moroccan government to do more to stem the tide of illegal immigration
00:46
into France, the French president gave Moroccan lawmakers something to cheer about.
00:53
France publicly took a stance on the future of Western Sahara.
00:57
For France, the present and future of this territory fall within the framework of Moroccan
01:01
sovereignty.
01:06
France now joins other nations, including Spain, the United States and Israel, in backing
01:11
Morocco's control over the contested area.
01:14
The translation of this principle into concrete images was to update the maps.
01:23
This has been done an hour ago.
01:25
Indeed, on the website of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the map of Morocco now
01:30
includes Western Sahara and the following text.
01:34
For France, the present and the future of the Sahara lie within the framework of Moroccan
01:38
sovereignty.
01:39
The autonomy plan proposed by Morocco in 2007 constitutes the only basis for achieving
01:45
a just, lasting and negotiated political solution, in accordance with the resolutions of the
01:51
United Nations Security Council.
01:54
The territory of Western Sahara has been a centre of conflict for 50 years between Morocco,
02:00
which has sent hundreds of thousands of settlers into the area, and the indigenous Sahrawi
02:05
independence fighters of the Polisario Front, which are supported by Algeria.
02:11
France's backing of Morocco's territorial claim has angered Algeria, which responded
02:16
by withdrawing its ambassador to Paris.
02:19
Nonetheless, French recognition of Moroccan control has a strong economic draw.
02:25
On Tuesday, Macron pledged an unspecified sum of investments in sustainable support
02:30
initiatives to benefit local populations in Western Sahara, and a French cultural institute
02:36
is due to open in Dakhla.
02:39
Several French companies have also signed agreements to produce green energy and e-fuels
02:44
in its vast expanses of sun-drenched land.
02:49
That's the scene.
02:50
Let's get the analysis.
02:51
William Lawrence joins us, professor of political science at the American University.
02:55
William Lawrence, thank you for joining us here on France 24.
02:57
We always appreciate your time and your expert knowledge on the area we're speaking about.
03:02
Has Emmanuel Macron made an error in endorsing Morocco's claim and thereby snubbing Algeria?
03:10
He hasn't made an error vis-a-vis France's overriding interest of having a strong relationship
03:15
with Morocco, and we can get into some of the aspects of that.
03:18
But he's made an error vis-a-vis Algeria, no question.
03:22
I mean, Macron is doing this because of the huge business upside for Morocco to fix the
03:28
crisis that had been going on with Morocco since 2020, which was making a lot of the
03:32
existing cooperation, including all the trade and investments, not work properly.
03:36
You know, there's the migration issues, the security cooperation issues.
03:40
All of those have an upside with Macron doing what he's doing.
03:45
But as you know, this is sort of a zero-sum problem in North Africa when it comes to Western
03:50
Sahara, and by making the crisis with Algeria worse, which can even affect energy supplies
03:57
in Europe in the context of the Ukraine war and all of that, you know, pushing away the
04:02
Algerians creates its own set of problems.
04:05
So France has gone from a balancing act, which was leading to sort of problems with both
04:10
sides, to not a balancing act, choosing a side, going with Morocco and, you know, sort
04:17
of double be damned on the Algerian side of the equation, which will have consequences.
04:21
Indeed, Algeria has undoubted resources in reserve there, obviously oil, massive amounts
04:29
there perhaps yet to be tapped into.
04:31
Morocco, on the other hand, forging ahead, creating massive fields of solar panels to
04:38
create electricity which can be exported.
04:40
Both countries have a really big case economically going forward, don't they?
04:46
Absolutely.
04:47
I mean, Morocco is linked to the European energy grid now, that huge desert tech project
04:52
and other renewable energy projects.
04:54
I was the NATO project director for several years of a wind hydrogen project in Morocco,
04:59
which is cutting edge.
05:00
I mean, in renewables, Morocco is leading the way, and Algeria is actually not too happy
05:04
about that either.
05:06
But you know, Morocco put huge investments in this.
05:10
The investments in renewables, for example, were an environmental positive, but a financial
05:14
negative.
05:15
They were more expensive than what they were yielding, and Morocco makes big sacrifices
05:20
economically and otherwise because of its Western Sahara policies, which is so much
05:24
of a focus of its foreign policy.
05:26
As you know, the king famously said, we see the whole world through the prism of Western
05:30
Sahara, which is true, but it has an upside and a downside.
05:34
You know, whereas Algeria has lots of resources too, human resources, energy resources, interest
05:40
in trade, interest in rapprochement with Europe, and they're getting pushed away these days
05:45
which has its own consequences, pushed more towards Russia, towards China.
05:50
They're trying to have strengthened ties with Egypt and Libya and Sudan as sort of a counterbalance
05:54
to what Morocco is doing.
05:56
And that has geopolitical consequences, which are unforeseen, you know, in creating more
06:02
friction between Algeria and its neighbors to the north.
06:05
What is it that they want about Western Sahara?
06:08
I mean, clearly there's this issue of pride and a national sense of belonging, I suppose.
06:14
But is there something else under the ground that they're after?
06:17
Well, under the ground is a loaded question.
06:20
There's a lot under the ground, but there's minerals and energy resources and lots of
06:25
other things.
06:26
But, you know, I've been writing and studying this issue for nearly 40 years.
06:30
And I think, you know, each side tends to instrumentalize the interests of the other.
06:35
You know, one side says it's our political and our cultural heritage.
06:39
And the other side is just interested in economic benefits.
06:42
And increasingly in the last 15 years, which I've also published on, they're framing it
06:46
in religious terms.
06:48
So Morocco says, you know, it's our sacred duty to defend this.
06:51
And the Algerians are saying, you know, national liberalization, like for the Palestinians,
06:55
is a sacred duty for us, too.
06:57
And it's preached in the mosques.
06:58
And in the end, each side, I think, and the world community has to take the other side's
07:03
views more seriously.
07:05
You know, self-determination for Sahrawis is really, really important.
07:10
And Morocco's views that its kingdom was broken up in, you know, in the Middle Ages
07:14
by or perhaps the Middle Ages by the European powers is a viable argument, too.
07:19
And ultimately, you know, my rubric for all of this, you know, whether analyzing domestic
07:24
politics or Western Sahara, is what's the best benefit for the population?
07:29
And we have not yet seen a best benefit yet for the Western Sahara population, a lot of
07:36
which is still in exile in camps in southern Algeria and not agreeing to what's going on.
07:42
And, you know, when those tens of thousands of people can go home, we will have accomplished
07:47
something.
07:48
And right now they don't want to go home because what has been set up for them in Western Sahara
07:52
is not independence, which they've been fighting for for so many years, but it's Moroccan sovereignty,
07:59
a sovereignty which can be heavy handed at times.
08:02
And that's what the Sahrawi people are afraid of.
08:06
You know, they often say we have no problems with Morocco or its government.
08:08
We just don't like their mohabbarets, you know, they're tough guys, you know, that make
08:14
life tough for us down here.
08:16
So, you know, I've been saying for decades, you know, as the region democratizes and as
08:22
human rights are a higher concern, this problem resolves itself.
08:26
And instead, we're having backsliding, you know, all around.
08:30
And until those human rights and human dignity issues gets resolved, something the U.S. should
08:35
be caring about more in the world, too, we'll have more peace and security in the region
08:40
and a future that people can sign up to rather than be told to sign up to.
08:45
William Lawrence, as always, thank you for joining us and shedding light on what is a
08:49
very fraught story.
08:50
And, of course, we'll come back to it at a later date.
08:53
Thank you once again, William Lawrence, professor of political science, excuse me, at the American
08:57
University, joining us there from Washington, D.C.
08:59
Time for business.
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10:02
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