Geno Smith's Big Game: Passing Yard Predictions now & Outlook

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00:00Joe, let's talk over-unders here, because a lot of times you can find some decent numbers.

00:04All right, here we go.

00:06Geno Smith, 239.5 passing yards.

00:09Over or under, what says you, Joey P?

00:13Joey P says over.

00:14You're going to see a lot of overs today.

00:16I will give you a couple unders at the end here, just to be a little balanced.

00:21But yeah, I'm looking at the way Geno Smith has played.

00:24I'm looking at the total for that game.

00:26And I think Geno Smith, especially, look, returning Ken Walker, that's great.

00:29But this is his first game back, so I think Charbonnet will still get a little work as

00:32well.

00:33So it's really on Geno's shoulders.

00:35And you know that Detroit can put up points, right?

00:38So that's a good thing.

00:39So this is like the big prove-it game for Geno Smith.

00:41And so far, he has looked really sharp.

00:43Now he's looked sharp against some lesser teams.

00:46This is the real test.

00:47But I think he's going to be up for it.

00:49DK Metcalf has played great.

00:50He's got Lockett.

00:51He's got JSN.

00:52He's got a full complement of healthy weapons.

00:55So I think this could be a really big fantasy week for Geno Smith.

00:57I would start him over Richardson this week.

01:00I would start him over Love this week in this matchup against Detroit, for better or worse.

01:04And it feels like he could certainly go even past that 250 mark, 260 mark.

01:09And when you have guys like DK Metcalf who can have these big plays, it really pads those

01:13stats.

01:14So give me the over on Geno Smith in what I think is going to be a game where Seattle

01:17covers at the very least.

01:19And I would not be shocked if they came away with a W.

01:22I think the Lions are playing a little tight so far this year.

01:25They got to loosen up a little bit.

01:26It's harder when you're at the top of the mountain and everybody's coming for you.

01:30And I think you're seeing a little bit of that from the Lions so far in 2024.

01:33All right.

01:34Now, when I said stay away from those parlays, I meant those wild four and five legs.

01:39I know they return a nice number, but two, I get it.

01:43For instance, I see Justin Fields' any time touchdown.

01:46I'm interested in that.

01:48Now I come across Justin Fields' 39 and a half rushing yards.

01:52Maybe I pair that.

01:53But before I go with Joe here, over or under on this number?

01:58I'm going to go over.

01:59Again, you have Najee Harris only this week working in the backfield.

02:03So I would not be shocked to see a lot more designed runs when it comes to the Pittsburgh

02:08Steelers offense this week.

02:10So if you're looking here for the rushing total for him, I think Justin Fields can go

02:13over it.

02:14Now, last week he did not.

02:15Obviously, it was not as big of a rushing day for him.

02:18And I also see him potentially scoring a touchdown in this game on the ground.

02:23Because let's be honest, everybody, that Indianapolis defense is not good.

02:27Now, to answer your question, since we've got to figure it out here, that number of

02:32plus 160 for any time touchdown scorer that was there Friday is now plus 150 for Justin

02:36Fields.

02:37So clearly Vegas seems to agree.

02:39If you put those two things together, the over for the rushing total and the touchdown

02:43scorer for Fields, you get plus 235.

02:46So that kind of two-leg parlay I've had a lot of success with this year.

02:50Last week with Jamar Chase to go over 80 and a half and score a touchdown.

02:54Well, that happened in the first half.

02:56This week already, Steve Lamb to go over his total and score a touchdown.

02:59Well, guess what?

03:00That worked too.

03:01So this is another situation where, again, Justin Fields, can he get over 40 rushing

03:05yards in this game?

03:06Yeah, I think he can.

03:07And can he get that touchdown?

03:08Absolutely.

03:09You better both separately and then put them together in that parlay too to have some fun

03:13and hedge yourself a little bit.

03:14That's a smart way to do it.

03:15Fields is a top 10 QB in the ranks this week for a reason.

03:19And every week he looks very comfortable and I think this is a really good opportunity

03:22on the turf for him to run amok all over the Colts.

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