NCAAF Best Bets: Georgia vs Alabama Epic Showdown Preview

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00:00The game of the year in college football week number five on a

00:10Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. It's number two,

00:14Georgia. It's number four, Alabama. Joe, for just the

00:19third time in the regular season since 2015, these two teams

00:24meet up. Of course, a long series history between these two

00:28conference foes in many more meetings than just regular

00:31season affairs in recent memory. In fact, since 2021,

00:36they have met three times as many times since 2021 in

00:40postseason play as they had throughout the regular season

00:44in the last decade. So, let's get to the game on Saturday

00:50because we might be seeing history and in a man that knows

00:53his markets and his handicapping, this must be

00:57noted. The Crimson Tide is currently listed as a two and a

01:00half point home underdog against the Bulldogs. It would

01:05snap a 113 consecutive home streak for Alabama being booked

01:11as at least the favored side in all 113. The last time Alabama

01:18was a home underdog was the very first year that Nick Saban

01:21was the head coach in Tuscaloosa back in November of

01:252007 against LSU. Let me start with the spread, Joe. Will

01:31Alabama end as the home underdog by the time we get to

01:35730 PM Eastern time on Saturday night?

01:40You know, Ben, I can't help but to feel that maybe this

01:45number is a little bit off. I mean, Alabama coming off the

01:50route of Wisconsin in Wisconsin. Georgia, I mean,

01:55squeaked by Kentucky, barely gets by Kentucky. I don't know

02:00if I'm putting a whole lot of stock into either of those

02:03games. To me, Wisconsin's a bad football team and I don't

02:07think, you know, Georgia knew this game was coming up, right?

02:11So, it was a clear look ahead spot. I don't think Georgia

02:13ever thought they were really in danger of losing Kentucky

02:16here. I still think Georgia is the better team. I don't think

02:21it's close and I do think that this number is actually a

02:25little bit, little bit light here. So, to me, Georgia, I

02:29would lay it. I'd take them on the money line. I mean,

02:33Georgia is now on 28 straight SEC games, 16 in a row on the

02:38road. Yeah, no. I'll lay the two and a half. I'll lay the

02:43125 in this one. Georgia wins this game. Georgia has not lost

02:48in the regular season in a very long time. I believe the

02:52win streak is now at forty-one. I will double check that in

02:56just a moment. Let's go back to the start of 2021 for UGA. It

03:00was the resurgence in college football, their first national

03:04championship in more than four decades. From the start of the

03:072021 season, Joe. Georgia as a favorite. Twenty-two, twenty-three

03:12and one against the spread. Alright, not great. They have

03:16been the favorite in virtually every single game including

03:20against Alabama. We'll talk about that in just a moment but

03:23that's often because UGA and non-conference play is not

03:27great at covering numbers. Now, in their SEC opener, now two

03:32weekends ago in Lexington as a three touchdown road favorite,

03:35they only won by a single point which I do believe

03:39influences this line but an SEC play, Joe. Since the start of

03:432021, Georgia is sixteen and thirteen against the spread. If

03:48the Dogs are to win this game by even a field goal, they

03:51cover. Alabama has been an underdog. Only five times in the

03:56last decade of college football since that 2015 game against

04:01Georgia in the regular season. In four of those five times, the

04:05Crimson Tide has been booked as an underdog against these

04:09Georgia Bulldogs. The only other time last year's Rose Bowl

04:13against Michigan in the college football playoff semifinal.

04:16Alabama in those instances is both three and two straight up

04:21and against the spread. Joe, Georgia has lost two football

04:25games. Two. Only two football games since the middle part of

04:29the 2020 college football season and each came to Alabama

04:34in the SEC title game. Two year or three years ago by seventeen

04:38points, forty-one twenty-four but Georgia got the last laugh

04:41in the national championship in a season ago as a six and a

04:45half point favorite losing by three. I agree with you. I know

04:51this is a night game under the lights in Tuscaloosa. I know

04:56they are a road favorite against Alabama. Principal and

05:00president should tell you to just take the points with the

05:03Crimson Tide but I think we often forget just how good

05:07Georgia is and even with a one-point road win in

05:11Lexington, I think Georgia makes a statement on Saturday

05:14night. Yeah, I agree with you. I mean now, granted, this is the

05:20first step of a few ridiculous challenges here for Georgia

05:24because when you gotta go on the road to Kentucky, you got

05:28the win. The only other matters if you're Georgia is win and

05:31continue to move on but when you look at not only do they

05:35have trips here to Alabama this week, they have to go to Texas

05:39and they have to go to Old Miss. So, this is a grueling

05:44schedule for Georgia but none of that is gonna matter if they

05:48lose this game against Alabama. I like that it's early enough

05:51in the season. This will be really the first road test to

05:55Georgia. They don't, I don't bet against Kirby Smart in these

05:58games without Nick Saban. This isn't the Nick Saban era

06:02anymore, guys. It's the Kalen DeBoer era and I have yet to

06:05see it. Uh I'll see it when I believe it but until then,

06:08Kirby Smart is a guy I am not looking to fade in this spot.

06:12And listen, in the first three games of the Kalen DeBoer era,

06:15Alabama also had a bye during week four. They have been

06:18really good. The Crimson Tide two and one against the spread.

06:21The only time they did not cover. They came back to win by

06:24nearly thirty against South Florida but they were a thirty

06:28and a half point favorite. That game of course was just a

06:30one-point game in the fourth quarter. All of that to say

06:34though, Joe, I agree with you. Coaching advantage is with

06:38Kirby Smart. Now, with that being said, even if Georgia

06:42wins this game as they are slightly expected to, I think

06:46both of these teams, Joe, are in the college football playoff

06:48and the odds would agree. Georgia remains the favorite in

06:52the SEC ever so slightly not just in front of Alabama by a

06:56dollar and a half but in front of the number one team in the

06:59country. That is Texas. Plus 250 for the Bulldogs to win yet

07:03another conference crown. Minus 550 for UGA to reach the

07:07college football playoff. I bet Alabama's price with a profit

07:12boost right before the year got started at minus 115 up to plus

07:16109 on the FanDuel Sportsbook. That minus 115 price, a virtual

07:22pick'em, has now become minus 350. Even if Alabama loses at

07:28home, the reaction should not be overwhelming. The Crimson

07:32Tide in my estimation are at least a ten-win football team

07:35this year and will be back into the college football playoff

07:38for a second consecutive season. The first, the debut

07:41year under Kalen DeBoer. Yeah, and the the great part about

07:47having that grueling schedule, Ben, is that even if they

07:49weren't to win this game, a win over Texas or Ole Miss down a

07:53stretch on the road, they basically have to get to

07:56Atlanta and if they win the SEC championship game, then they're

08:01the number one seed regardless. That's what Georgia is. That's

08:04how good they are. You don't want to get in front of this. I

08:09think they beat Alabama. Texas and Ole Miss are going to be

08:12totally different animals when they get to that point but

08:16either way, they're going to the SEC championship game.

08:20They're going to represent and they're going to be the

08:21favorite one way or the other. Forty-two game regular season

08:27win streak for Georgia, by the way. That is how good they have

08:32been. Again, there are only two losses since the middle

08:35portion of the 2020 season. If I do the math quickly, 48-51.

08:39Out of 51, they are 49-2 since that middle part of 2020 have

08:45come against Alabama both in the SEC championship game. Keep

08:50an eye on Carson Beck on Saturday night. Jalen Melro has

08:53made history for the Crimson Tide in each of the first three

08:57games this year. Multiple passing touchdowns, multiple

09:00rushing touchdowns. The only quarterback in Bama history that

09:04can say that. It is going to be sensational on Saturday in

09:10Tuscaloosa. These are the kind of games that you yearn for in

09:15college football and I bet you it delivers on Saturday night.

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