State of the Union: Germany's border politics and US election campaign fever

euronews (in English)

This week, State of the Union focuses on the latest round of immigration politics in Germany and voting patterns in the US and elsewhere.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to State of the Union, I'm Stephan Grobe in Brussels.

00:10The recent gains of the far right in regional elections in East Germany continue to make

00:15waves this week.

00:17Not that anything productive came out of the ranks of the AFD party, the alternative for

00:23Germany.

00:24It was rather the center-left coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz trying to seize back

00:29the initiative.

00:30In an attempt to further crack down on illegal immigration, Germany is now tightening controls

00:36at its borders, undermining, at least for six months, the Schengen system, Europe's

00:42visa-free area of unrestricted movement.

00:46This in reaction to a 33% rise in illegal border crossings, according to the latest

00:52official numbers.

00:54With this move, Berlin hopes to win back voters in the next regional election in East Germany

01:18a week from now.

01:20Meanwhile, the latest row between the EU Commission and Hungary over immigration is about to escalate.

01:26Budapest vowed to retaliation for a 200 million euro fine imposed by the European Court of

01:32Justice over Hungary's treatment of asylum seekers.

01:49Budapest's threats triggered sharp criticism from Belgium and the EU Commission.

02:04No bus transfer has taken place yet, and that might never happen at all.

02:08Yet the recent sharp focus on immigration shows how the rise of populism in elections

02:14in Europe throughout the year is influencing the political debate.

02:19Speaking of debate, in the United States, where far-right populism is making another

02:24run at the presidency, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris faced off in what was probably their

02:31only televised debate.

02:33Polls taken immediately afterwards saw Harris as the clear winner, but the race remains

02:38tight.

02:40A race both campaigns have claimed is all-important for the survival of democracy.

02:46Joining me now is Ben Ansell, political scientist at the University of Oxford, host of the podcast

02:53What's Wrong With Democracy and author of Why Politics Fails.

02:58Welcome to the program.

02:59Thank you so much for having me, Stefan.

03:01So is democracy in decline?

03:04And do the elections of 2024 so far reflect that?

03:08This year, four billion people went to the polls to vote, half of them in countries with

03:14free and fair elections.

03:16And for the most part, the results of those elections should encourage us.

03:21So for example, in Turkey, Erdogan has not succeeded in controlling some of the local

03:28cities.

03:29So he's sort of on the defense.

03:30Narendra Modi, again, in a fair and free election, but one that people thought he was going to

03:34dominate and strengthen.

03:35He did worse than expected.

03:37Last year, PIS in Poland finally lost.

03:40So actually, in lots of places where we were concerned that democracy might be weakening,

03:45it hasn't.

03:46Let's focus on the US presidential elections being just around the corner.

03:51Are identity politics, something typically American, and misinformation tearing democracy

03:57apart?

03:58The kind of identity politics that is used in misinformation that people get excited

04:02about has always been with us.

04:04People have always voted by their demographics.

04:07You know, what we're seeing in the US election with Hispanic and African-American voting

04:11looks pretty similar to 2008, maybe also to the 1990s.

04:15So the fact that people vote their identities is nothing new in American politics.

04:20What's new maybe is the polarization in the media around that.

04:24There has been a special focus this year on first-time voters in the US.

04:32What can we expect from them in the presidential elections?

04:36Kamala Harris has a lead among younger Americans, and that's where she's really changed the

04:42narrative from Joe Biden.

04:43Biden actually did very well, maybe not surprisingly, among senior citizens in America, cut into

04:49Trump's edge there.

04:51But he lost a lot of young voters concerned about Gaza, yes, but also concerned about

04:56inflation, concerned about the housing market, and concerned about voting for somebody in

05:00their 80s.

05:01And so I suspect that we will see many more young people out to vote than we would have

05:06done with Biden, and then in most recent elections.

05:10There's also a growing gender divide when it comes to voting, women voting differently

05:15than men.

05:16How do you explain this?

05:18It's always been true that women and men have voted differently.

05:22But what is new about today is that the gender gap is just enormous, right?

05:27So right now, it looks like there's a 20-point gender gap.

05:31So if you like, Harris is sort of plus 10 with women, and Trump is plus 10 with men.

05:37So that's a huge difference.

05:38Now, women turn out to vote more.

05:40So actually, that's an inbuilt advantage for Kamala Harris.

05:44Why is that happening more this election?

05:47Maybe because of having a woman on the ballot, I think more likely because of abortion.

05:50All right, Ben Ansell, professor at the University of Oxford, thanks for helping us understand

05:54this complex issue.

05:55I appreciate it.

05:56Thank you so much for having me.

06:00One issue that voters are particularly interested in is, according to polls, climate change.

06:06The reason is that more and more people experience firsthand extreme weather events or other

06:11phenomena like sinkholes.

06:15Most recently, an area in central Turkey is troubled by the proliferation of sinkholes

06:20up to more than 2,600.

06:23The cause, most of them, is droughts and uncontrolled use of underground water, typical consequences

06:30of climate change.

06:32Turkish emergency management authorities are closely monitoring the development of the

06:36giant holes, looking for ways to prevent their formation.

06:41Now, if you feel the ground beneath you is going away, don't panic.

06:46The collapse process is usually so gradual that you can leave the affected area safely.

06:54That's it for this edition.

06:55I'm Stefan Grober.

06:57Have an excellent week.

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