NCAAF Best Bets: College Football Week 3 + Notre Dame's Struggles

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00:03Our number three certainly rolling along right here on the early line on a Wednesday morning

00:07down the right side and now we welcome in the one, the only, it's Joe Lisi into the

00:12program Wednesdays with Lisi has a nice little ring to it here as we get down to all the

00:17hitting details.

00:18Joe, how do we feel?

00:19I feel good.

00:20I thought I was going to see you tomorrow and here it is on Wednesday hump day.

00:24I get an early morning fix of DRS so I'm looking forward to it.

00:30Now look on other shows, you might ask the questions when I'm supposed to ask the questions,

00:33but on this show, Joe Lisi, we go in order and I like to ask the questions first, which

00:38again, college football right up your alley.

00:41I watched this game just about last week.

00:42Joe, start to finish Notre Dame and NIU, one of the biggest upset you are going to see

00:47and where does that leave Notre Dame is the biggest question.

00:51Last week, Joe, they were number five this week.

00:53They're now number 18 before we get to the matchup on Purdue.

00:56What happened with Notre Dame last week?

00:58Four touchdown favorite at home.

00:59You can't lose that game.

01:00Oh, absolutely.

01:01And I talked about it with Kevin and game time decisions.

01:05The fact that they came out for a season opener after the beating that they gave Texas A&M

01:11in the interior and they come out flat, they couldn't run the football, they couldn't shut

01:15down NIU.

01:16They lost the turnover battle.

01:19Riley Leonard was completely inconsistent and that's on Marcus Freeman.

01:23That's a coaching type of situation.

01:25Donnie, the numbers were amazing.

01:27I mean, Notre Dame, I believe, and I have to double check, but when I did that game,

01:31they have never lost to a Mac opponent.

01:33A week one matchup opening up in terms of South Bend since the days of the 1800s, whenever

01:39they started, they had like a 910 winning percentage opening day.

01:44So it's fine that they didn't cover, but to lose the game outright as a 28 and a half

01:49point favorite to Northern Illinois, not even picked as one of the better teams in the Mac,

01:54that was a pitiful performance and that falls solely on Marcus Freeman.

01:59I'm pretty surprised here because we're going to take a look at some of the numbers here

02:02for Notre Dame now on the season and what is left of it here.

02:05As I said, at one and one, to make the playoffs, it's a three to one price, which I do think

02:09is substantially lower than what I would actually rate it at.

02:12You see the, to win it all, that is at a hundred total number, which I agree with there.

02:17I don't think there's any chance of that.

02:18So moving forward, and here's some of the topics that I'd love to bring up.

02:22Like typically Joe, if you're in a conference, right?

02:24And we make, we can equate this to like Florida state.

02:26They're down and out.

02:27They lost their first two games, but theoretically they can still win the ACC, which means it

02:32doesn't matter what anybody else does in college football.

02:35You get that automatic bid into the playoff.

02:38Notre Dame is not in a conference.

02:39They don't get the automatic bid.

02:40Is the season over already for Notre Dame after just in the expanded playoff era?

02:46No, I don't think it is.

02:48I think three to one is fair.

02:49They went from minus one 70 in the off season to now three to one.

02:53They still play USC, assuming that USC is for real, right?

02:57They get the victory over LSU.

02:59They're going to face Michigan in a couple of weeks, they're already eight and a half,

03:03or they were preseason eight and a half point dogs in that matchup.

03:07If they go into the big house and get that victory, and let's say they're going toe to

03:11toe with Ohio state is the best team in the big 10 and Notre Dame could get that win,

03:16Donnie, then that'll catapult them to potentially a top 10 ranking.

03:20But there is no margin of error.

03:21They play Army and Navy on the schedule.

03:23They play Miami of Ohio, another Mac opponent.

03:26You have to run the table.

03:28At worst, you have to be 11 and one, I believe right now, unless Florida State can

03:33right the ship, because they get them in South Bend later in the year.

03:38Now let's take a look at this week's game, because you're going to take on a big 10 opponent,

03:41Purdue, when they're open, or they're one and oh.

03:42Notre Dame obviously comes in this game one and one.

03:44If we see the graphic here that's going to be posted, Notre Dame is a favorite.

03:48They're supposed to be a favorite, but the look ahead lines show 17s, 16 and a half.

03:53They plop to below 10 now, minus nine and a half and a total of 45 and a half.

03:57Like the way most of our handicapping minds work is we're trying to find the team that's

04:01like buy low and sell high at this point.

04:03Notre Dame might not be lower at any time over the next 10 years after a loss to NIU.

04:08Is there a chance that you're buying back on them this weekend going up against Purdue?

04:12Or was that loss last week indicative of what's to expect from the Notre Dame Fighting

04:16Irish?

04:17No, I think it could be a bounce back spot, but it is a tricky line, right?

04:21It opened up at like 11 and a half, 12.

04:23Now we're seeing nine and a half.

04:25Stani, they've won eight straight in the series against Purdue.

04:28The last time Purdue beat Notre Dame was back in 2007.

04:32The last time they played in regards to this matchup was back in 2021.

04:36Here's the thing.

04:37Hudson Card, the quarterback for Purdue, threw four touchdowns, completed 70, I believe 90%

04:43of his passes, 24 or 25 in regards to the beat down of Indiana State.

04:48And they get basically 12 days of preparation.

04:52They only played on August 31st.

04:54So it's like a buy right after the first game of the regular season, which is ridiculous

04:58if you think about it.

04:59So the extra prep is why I think you're seeing the line come down in favor of the Boilermakers

05:05and they're typically a live dog.

05:07But if I'm gonna bet this game, I probably would take Notre Dame in a bounce back spot,

05:13but I don't love it, Donny.

05:14I'm not betting this game in any capacity.

05:16I would probably go Notre Dame and I would take a shot on over 45 and a half.

05:22Marcus Freeman said they bought into the hype last week, taking on NIU.

05:25You can buy into whatever hype you want.

05:27It's not as if it's like, hey, we're playing a division opponent or a conference opponent

05:30favored by four and a half.

05:31You're favored by four touchdowns at home.

05:32You should walk onto the football field and win that with ease.

05:35They didn't.

05:36How did they get the best version of Notre Dame this week?

05:38Why?

05:39Because the coach certainly is going to have their ears.

05:41Let's take a look at another top 25 matchup this weekend, 1245 PM, Missouri, the home

05:45team, Boston College, the road team, but both teams, two and O and two and O.

05:50So four wins combined, Boston College comes in ranked 24th, Missouri ranked number six.

05:55How are we lining this football game off as a heavy favorite towards Missouri here at

05:5816 and a half?

05:59I'm going to shock some people.

06:01I think this is a fishy line.

06:02I think they're begging you to take Boston College and Thomas Castellanos and a rushing

06:07attack that's averaging 282 rushing yards for a game that goes right into the strength

06:12of Missouri.

06:13They're only giving up around 68 yards on the ground.

06:16They're converting Missouri is 60% in regards to third down offense.

06:21They do have, I believe the better quarterback in regards to the passing attack, Brady Cook

06:26over Castellanos.

06:27And again, the last time these two teams played was a couple of years ago, went right down

06:32to the fourth quarter.

06:33But again, I do feel Missouri has a speed advantage in this matchup, Luther Burden going

06:39against that secondary.

06:40I think Missouri starts fast.

06:42It could be maybe a 10 point game, 13 point game, and they tacked one on to win this ball

06:47game by 20.

06:48I'm going to lay it here shockingly in this ball game.

06:51Yeah.

06:52Castellanos certainly a fun quarterback to watch play.

06:55You saw him in that Florida state game.

06:56They were the better team all the way through, maybe the building of some good things by

07:00Bill O'Brien back up there for BC.

07:02Let's move to another one here, Midwest action.

07:04The Oklahoma Sooners at home 2-0 in the season, ranked number 15 going up against Tulane.

07:10One and one, lost a tough one there to Kansas state.

07:13This line minus 13 and a half, just below two touchdowns and a total of 47 and a half.

07:18Tulane, Oklahoma, expectations here, Joe.

07:21Yeah.

07:22I'm going to go with the dog here.

07:23I was on Tulane against Kansas state and I was on Houston against Oklahoma.

07:28Part of it is I'm not a big buyer of Jackson Arnold, still a little bit inconsistent in

07:33the passing attack.

07:34They're only averaging around 166 passing yards per game.

07:38And you look at the rushing attack of Tulane, 195 yards per game.

07:42Their quarterback, Mensah is pretty good, four touchdowns, no interceptions.

07:46They're battle tested.

07:47I know they lost a tough home game against the top ranked opponent in K state, but they're

07:52going on the road.

07:53I just don't think Oklahoma is all that good, even though they're very good in run support.

07:57Give me the points with the green wave on the road in this matchup, Donnie.

08:02By the way, let me ask you another quick one here before we get to the break, Michigan

08:05and Arkansas state.

08:06It's the same thing that we talk about, like with the Notre Dame fighting Irish, not a

08:09great performance on their end, but Notre Dame losses a four touchdown dog.

08:13Michigan was actually a dog on their own building.

08:14Let's call it a touchdown bounce back performance from Michigan this week.

08:17They're favored by close to 24 points with a total around 50 here.

08:22What can we expect from Michigan coming off of that embarrassing loss to Texas the week

08:25before?

08:26I mean, they might win, but I'm not going to bet that game.

08:28I would take the points with Arkansas state.

08:30Jerome Moore, they just signed this contract, I believe this morning.

08:34So that's a boost.

08:35I would wait until Michigan gets one cover.

08:39Then I would take them.

08:40I can't bet this game, hoping they cover this game.

08:42They get a win, but Arkansas state keeps it close, I think.

08:45Yeah, it should be a good weekend of college football, and again, we are moving quickly

08:49throughout the season.

08:50Big games we played.

08:51We're certainly going to determine who those final playoff spots will be a little bit later

08:55down the line.

08:57A lot is going to go to determine that here.

08:58We're going to flip it over to the NFL up next year, because we've got an awesome game

09:02on Thursday Night Football that you're certainly not going to want to miss, and we'll preview

09:06that.

09:07And also, Pro Football Today crew in the building tomorrow night.

09:10It's Joe Lisi, it's Donny Rightside, and I can't remember the third guy that shows up

09:15to that TV show.

09:17Maybe it'll come to me over the break at this point, but it's Joe and Donny talking football.

09:20We'll be right back after the break.

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