Understanding NFL Betting: Insights on Consistency & Strategy

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Transcript

00:00Where do you kind of lie when it comes to, as far as just when you really, really like

00:08a game?

00:09It really all depends on the spot.

00:12Usually in NFL, if you're looking at a side or a total for a full game, if you see something

00:17that you think is way off, again, typically you're the one that's, that's mistaken because

00:21you just don't get massive errors in the NFL.

00:24So for the most part, for full games, sides and totals, it's very consistent.

00:30It's a standard bet amount.

00:31Anything that I'll do in media rarely is significantly stronger or weaker than things that were given

00:37out in the past.

00:38Now, when you get into more of the prop markets or secondary derivatives, you can find things

00:44that have a pretty big variance and that's standard, not just through NFL, but for every

00:49sport too.

00:50And so in some circumstances you can look at those and say, this is way off because

00:55a guy was injured and they got the depth chart wrong on this, or they're mispricing the usage

01:00for this third string wide receiver, who's now going to be the second string.

01:04A lot of times in play as well.

01:07Something that's typically missed by sports books is if a team is trailing and you're

01:12looking at in play props, the second string or third string running back is typically

01:17used in the passing game more than the starter is.

01:20And so if a team is trailing by two plus scores and they're trying to pick up the tempo, they'll

01:26bring the passing game back in and that guy may often be priced a little bit shorter.

01:30There's a lot of things like that.

01:31Like the backup would be getting a lot of pass plays.

01:36Yep, exactly.

01:38Lots of situational things like that tend to be missed.

01:42And that's where you're like, okay, I want to get as much as I can on, on this.

01:46And then it becomes like, what are you limited to by the sports book?

01:48So it really depends on the circumstance, but in an ideal world, you could just bet

01:54the same amount of money on everything and we'd all be pretty happy, but that's just

01:58not, that's not reality.