French Rafale warplanes deal part of EU 'carrot/stick method to get Serbia to move away from Russia'

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00:00Well, he is on a two-day mission to help bring Serbia closer to the European Union as it seeks membership of the bloc

00:06Emmanuel Macron is describing as historic a deal that will see Belgrade purchase 12 French warplanes

00:12The fighter jet agreement marks the latest in a series of moves that have seen Serbia seek closer ties with Brussels

00:19But it's raised concerns about the possibility of Belgrade transferring technology to its traditional ally

00:26Moscow Tom Kennedy has more

00:30In the midst of a political crisis in France

00:33Emmanuel Macron traveled to Belgrade to meet his counterpart Alexander Vucic to conclude the sale of 12 Rafale aircraft

00:42A strategic and sensitive sale at a time when Serbia maintains diplomatic relations with Russia

00:48But for Paris the purchase of these fighter jets is a strategic change for Serbia

00:53Hailed on Thursday by the French president who sees it as a way of contributing to strengthening Europe's autonomy

01:00This strategic autonomy which we can consolidate together by strengthening our security is not exclusive to the European Union

01:11But also within the European political community and with countries destined to join the EU

01:16This is why Serbia's choice of Rafale fighter jets is a clear choice

01:20That of a long-term alliance between our two countries within a stronger more sovereign Europe

01:27Macron claims to have received full guarantees from Vucic to prevent any transfer of Rafale technology to Russia

01:34or any pressure on Kosovo

01:37It will be the second visit of the French president to Serbia in the last five years

01:41following the strengthening of relations between the two countries

01:47For more let's bring in Helena Ivanov. She's associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society

01:53Thank you so much for being with us on the program, Helena

01:56So we saw a little bit of the story there in that report

02:00Tell us firstly, Serbia is seeking closer ties with the EU

02:04But does that mean it's actually moving further from Russia?

02:08Well, I think that President Vucic has been very clear when speaking during the press conference yesterday

02:14He obviously restated Serbia's desire to join the European Union

02:18and the willingness of Serbia to take the necessary steps to join the EU

02:22However, he has also highlighted that despite everyone's wishes and despite Macron's wishes in particular

02:28Serbia is not going to impose sanctions on Russia

02:31So on the basis of what we've seen yesterday

02:33I think we can expect more of the same from the Serbian government

02:37where on one hand, I'm sure they will continue to cooperate with the EU

02:41take part in normalization talks with Kosovo mediated by the EU

02:45take high state visits like the one that we are seeing for the last two days

02:49But we can also expect that Serbia will continue to work and cooperate with Russia

02:55and that at the very least, it is not going to impose sanctions on Russia anytime soon

03:00But in that case, if it isn't going to be applying those sanctions, as you say

03:04how much pressure do you think is actually being applied behind the scenes

03:07when it comes to securing the deals that we saw secured yesterday in terms of these French fighter jets?

03:14Well, I think that definitely the European Union is trying to exert as much pressure as possible

03:19on President Vucic to get him to impose sanctions on Russia

03:22or at the very least, decrease the intensity of relations with Russia

03:26When it comes to Rafale specifically

03:28we have strong reasons to think that President Vucic will stay committed to his pledge

03:32and that he will not sell the technology to Russians

03:35I think equally, we can expect that he's not going to abuse it or misuse it against Kosovo

03:40especially because if Vucic was to do any of these two things

03:43the price for that would be extremely high

03:46However, I also think that EU's ability to exert leverage on Serbia

03:50when it comes to imposing sanctions on Russia has been very limited

03:53partly because the people in Serbia do not support imposing such sanctions on Russia

03:58So I think in a way, the EU has accepted this dynamic that Vucic has been playing for a while now

04:03and is playing into this balancing act

04:06where it is allowing Serbia to continue the talks for joining the EU

04:10is willing to cooperate and work with Serbia on one hand

04:13but at the same time is sort of accepting that sanctions against Russia

04:16are really not on the table for Serbia

04:19But apart from those pledges, is there any way to actually ensure

04:22that Serbia isn't going to pass on certain technology to Moscow?

04:26Well, I do think that again, Serbia benefits quite a lot

04:30from being in the accession talks with the EU

04:33I think that there are huge financial benefits of cooperation between Serbia and the EU

04:38I think that when it comes to Kosovo as well

04:41the normalization talks are basically one of the ways in which

04:44the Serbian community in the north remains protected

04:47So I think all of these things accumulate to a very beneficial relationship

04:51with the EU that Serbia currently has

04:53And of course, if Vucic was to dishonor the pledge that he has made

04:56all of those benefits with the EU would be gone in a blink of a moment

05:00So I do think that that is exactly the reason why Vucic has no interest

05:04to dishonor the pledge that he's made yesterday to President Macron

05:08And in terms of actually joining the EU

05:10how close is Serbia to realizing that objective?

05:14Well, obviously many would love to say that it is very close

05:18However, I think on a closer inspection

05:20that date is probably not coming anytime soon

05:22I think the EU has been clear for quite some time right now

05:25that there is no appetite for enlargement

05:27and that Serbia needs to resolve certain issues

05:29specifically Kosovo issue

05:31before accession can really become an option

05:34I think equally we have a huge problem

05:36that the popularity of the European Union

05:38is substantially decreasing in Serbia

05:40according to some research

05:42There is a chance that more people vote against joining the EU

05:45than in favor, all of which obviously complicates the accession

05:48But to end on a more optimistic note

05:50it was very surprising to hear President Macron yesterday

05:53say very explicitly that Serbia belongs to the EU

05:56and given that President Macron was one of the people

05:58who thought it's not the time to enlarge now

06:00this kind of a comment coming from him

06:02is definitely encouraging for all of those

06:04who hope to see Serbia join the EU anytime soon

06:07But is it making any real progress

06:09in terms of things like the rule of law, democratic reforms

06:12these are some of the preconditions for membership

06:15Obviously, and that is exactly one of the things

06:18that the EU is demanding Serbia resolve

06:20and Serbia as of yet has not completely resolved those problems

06:24So the question is, is it going to be able to do that

06:27and is the EU going to be willing once Serbia

06:30hopefully does implement all of those reforms

06:33will the EU then be willing to have Serbia join the bloc

06:37And in terms of Emmanuel Macron reaching out to Serbia

06:40he's on a two-day state visit there

06:42Is this simply all about moving Serbia

06:45out of the Russian sphere of influence

06:47what is in it for the EU so to speak

06:49and France particularly?

06:52Well, I think that definitely one big step

06:54that the EU is hoping to make

06:56is to further move Serbia away from Russia

06:59and towards the EU

07:00I think the EU has been sort of trying

07:02this mixture of stick and carrot method

07:04in trying to get Serbia to move away from Russia

07:06and this is part of the carrot

07:08the selling of the raffles and the high-level state visit

07:11is always something that's very beneficial for Serbia

07:13and I definitely think that's one of the reasons

07:15as to why President Macron has done this

07:17but I also think that bilaterally

07:19from Serbia-France relations

07:21there are also clear benefits to it

07:22like multiple different things are going to be discussed

07:24in the next two days

07:25it's also about artificial intelligence cooperation

07:28about energy cooperation

07:29about nuclear energy cooperation

07:31so there are specific things that will be discussed

07:33over the course of the two-day visit

07:35that I think also benefit France

07:37and just generally improve the bilateral relations

07:39between France and Serbia

07:41Helena, we'll have to leave it there for now

07:43but thank you so much for joining us

07:44on the programme this morning

07:45That is Helena Ivanov

07:47Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society

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