What to know about the heavy exchange of fire between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah

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00:00Israel, Hezbollah, bitter enemies.

00:02Does either of them really want an outright war though at this moment?

00:05Well, I think the simple answer to that, Brian, is no, they don't.

00:08And it's not in either's interest that this would spiral out of control and become a much

00:12wider conflict because they have far more to lose by that happening than just the sort

00:18of tit-for-tat retaliatory measures that we've seen over the past 24 hours.

00:22What we're talking about here was, of course, the assassination of Fouad Shakir, who was

00:27a top military commander by Israel in Beirut.

00:30So Hezbollah has said, well, we're going to have to take action.

00:33And they've been waiting to see how the peace talks are carrying on with Hamas before they

00:38made a decision about whether or not to attack.

00:40They see these peace talks for a ceasefire are not getting anywhere.

00:44So that's why they took the decision yesterday to launch these raids.

00:48What they're doing here is saying, OK, we have to react.

00:51We're going to hit military targets only, but we've got to do something to show that

00:55we are a military power, not only for Israel, but also for the opinion back home.

01:00And there's been quite a lot of criticism of Hassan Nasrallah for being too weak, of

01:05not being strong enough, of not making the right decisions.

01:08They've even been comparing him to someone who's been attacking chicken farms and not

01:13Israeli sites that should be attacked.

01:16So it was important that this was underlined by Hezbollah, that they were going to pay

01:22Israel for what they did.

01:25Israel will pay you back for what you did.

01:27Israel is saying, well, we're going to pay you back as well and we're going to add some

01:29more onto that.

01:30So that's the situation we're in at the moment.

01:34The final word from Israel right now is, OK, this is not going to be over yet, even though

01:41they say two thirds of the rocket launchers that Hezbollah were planning to use were destroyed

01:46by the Israelis afterwards.

01:48So we're in a situation where this could start again.

01:50But for the moment, it appears that there is a bit of a belief that things have calmed

01:56down a little bit.

01:57I mean, so both sides obviously taking a breather, we can say, Hassan Nasrallah, speaking about

02:04this being the first stage, what might the next stage be?

02:07Well, we don't know.

02:08We don't know what's going on in the minds of the military strategists within Hezbollah.

02:12What I think Hezbollah is trying to do here is to pull the rug under the feet of Israel

02:17by saying, OK, we have retaliated for the death of our top military commander.

02:23We have done what we were expected to do and now that's done.

02:27It's up to you now, Israel, to make the next step.

02:30The ball is on your side.

02:31If you want to attack us, then we're going to attack again.

02:33But we're in the position of the people who are defending Lebanon.

02:38We are the victims.

02:39It is Israel that is the perpetrator.

02:42That's the image, I think, that Hezbollah is trying to paint of Israel at the moment.

02:48And I think there's a lot of expectation that, right, this might be out of the way.

02:51We still don't know what Iran is going to do following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh

02:57last month.

02:58That's another possibility they could be attacked.

03:00Will the Houthis get involved?

03:01Another proxy involved in the conflict in the Middle East, another proxy of Iran.

03:07I think all eyes on the discussions for a ceasefire.

03:10A lot of deception going on there in Cairo that there seems to be no ceasefire in the

03:14pipeline right now.

03:16So that might mean there could be more strikes.

03:18All right.

03:19We will be, of course, keeping a close eye on that.

03:22France 24 International Affairs, Editor Philip Trill, thanks so much for that analysis.

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