2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: A Wide-Open Race

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00:00But just because Riza Shay went first does not mean that everybody believed that Riza

00:07Shay was a better prospect or would have a better NBA career than Alex Tsar.

00:13And we see that reflected ever so slightly in the odds to win Rookie of the Year.

00:17Tsar opens as the favorite on Fandulit, plus $4.50, a dollar and a half in front of Riza

00:24Shay, who has the second best number at 6-1.

00:27Yeah, here's the interesting part about it this year, which again, we didn't get last

00:30year.

00:31We thought it would be a runaway here for the Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so

00:34in Victor Webinyama.

00:35Started out a little bit slow, if that can be kind there, and was tremendous the rest

00:39of the way.

00:40But also, you had that sort of outside influence for a player in Chet Holmgren for OKC, who

00:45didn't play the year before but then stepped in, so it was quite fun to see two of those

00:48guys go toe-to-toe.

00:49This team's been so wide open at this point of who's going to win it.

00:53Now granted, in order to win a Rookie of the Year, what do you need?

00:56Opportunities.

00:57It can't be like, if you say to yourself, well, I think Kinect's going to be the steel

01:00of the draft.

01:01Well, is Kinect going to be a star in the Lakers' lineup, averaging 19 points a game?

01:04Probably not.

01:05So it's hard to win Rookie of the Year from that facet when you picture some of these

01:07guys on worse basketball teams, just looking to make their way around.

01:11So I take a look at Saar and Riza Shay, obviously those two guys are the favorite, but you don't

01:16put out guys like Castle, even Bouzelis.

01:18The problem is, I'm not too familiar with these guys, because the last couple years,

01:22you usually have that bona fide number one, the superstar coming into the league.

01:25As long as they're healthy and playing 65 games, they get it.

01:27This year?

01:28Boy oh boy.

01:29And the odds reflected here.

01:30There's a lot of players between 20-1 or less with a legitimate chance to win this.

01:35Should be a fun year.

01:36Historically, a couple of things to note.

01:38Even before the 2023 NBA draft, Victor Wembenyama was close to a $2 favorite to win NBA Rookie

01:45of the Year.

01:46Those prices shifted just a little bit throughout the NBA campaign, jostling with Chet Holmgren

01:51of the OKC Thunder, but ultimately, Wembenyama, with a great home stretch of his rookie campaign,

01:57despite the Spurs struggling and only winning 22 games, won NBA Rookie of the Year and became

02:03a very heavy odds-on favorite once again to win that hardware.

02:08Even before the NFL draft, Caleb Williams was the favorite to be the NFL Offensive Rookie

02:12of the Year before he was drafted first overall.

02:16These odds were not out until the end of last night's opening round.

02:20And DRS, you mentioned not knowing some of these names, so it's hard to project really

02:26how they are going to perform in the association in their first year.

02:31This was the second consecutive season a non-U.S. college basketball player was drafted first

02:36overall.

02:37Victor Wembenyama last year, Zachary Resache this season.

02:41First time that's ever happened in NBA draft history.

02:44Two consecutive years of a non-U.S. college basketball player from 2010 to 2022.

02:49It was a U.S. college freshman after completing his first year in collegiate hoops, making

02:54his way to the NBA.

02:56But I do still believe there is some value out there.

02:59Steph Castle, could we see back-to-back San Antonio Spurs win NBA Rookie of the Year?

03:04He went fourth last night at plus $7.50.

03:06Matas Bouzelis on a slide down to Chicago at the 11th overall pick, but the fourth best

03:11price at plus $8.50.

03:13I think Reed Shepard has value at 10-1.

03:16And listen, maybe I have a soft spot in my heart for the guys that battled down to the

03:20post.

03:21The big men, 12-1 on Zach Eaddy, ninth overall selection to the Grizzlies, and the guy that

03:26I think is the best pro prospect out of this draft class, who will have the best NBA career,

03:31Donovan Klingin, 20-1, Portland, seventh overall pick.

03:34I think there's a lot of value on the big man from Yukon.

03:36I mean, shout out to the handicappers on this one, that if you're doing deep dives on these

03:40players and know exactly what you're talking about, because for me, I'm just looking at

03:43names here and what I've seen out of college basketball and saying, oh, I guess Saar and

03:46Reece Ashae are going to be very good.

03:48But if you know, you might look at, we're only taking a look at some of those guys at

03:5120-1.

03:52There might be other guys in this class that really step up that you can get a great number

03:55on.

03:56Because as I said, typically, it's paint by numbers in rookie of the year.

03:59It's going to be a guy that's drafted number one, number two overall, because they were

04:02superstars in the international game, like Victor Reminiama, or just a great player in

04:06the NCAA game at this point.

04:07So if you are a true handicapper, you probably absolutely love this rookie of the year setting.

04:12Thanks for watching.

04:13We'll see you next time.

04:14Bye.

04:15Bye.

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