00:00Is it a surprise to see Cooper Flagg even as a minus money favorite to an NBA Rookie of the Year in 2025-26?
00:08Absolutely not.
00:09It's probably what we expected.
00:11But is it a good bet?
00:12Because minus money can still be value if the guy closes at minus $100,000 to win a market as we saw last night to go first overall.
00:22Ultimately, if Cooper Flagg remains healthy and plays the 65-game minimum, I expect him to win NBA Rookie of the Year.
00:29Because to me, he is still a generational talent.
00:32And that, of course, is what everybody expects out of Cooper Flagg immediately in the association.
00:38Instant impact player who is going to be a difference for Dallas next year.
00:43But we talk about this a lot in NFL Rookie of the Year markets where you see a quarterback often booked as a favorite.
00:50But when you look at Rookie of the Year around the National Football League, at least in the decade or 15-year history that we have seen recently,
00:56quarterbacks don't just run away with the award like they do with the MVP or the Heisman Trophy in college football.
01:02Why?
01:03Because a quarterback, fair or not, is tied to team success.
01:07Cooper Flagg does not go to a program or a franchise now that is expected to win 20 games next year.
01:13He goes to a team that is expected to be a playoff contender immediately in the Western Conference.
01:19So, Donnie, to your point, he's not the guy.
01:22Might he be guy number two or guy number three?
01:25Can he still put up 17-8 next year and have great numbers?
01:28For sure.
01:30But if he's putting up 15-9 and the Mavericks are below 500 and missing out on the play-in tournament,
01:36does that hurt the Rookie of the Year stock of Cooper Flagg?
01:39I would say so.
01:41And it might not be the same comparison to a guy like Ace Bailey, who goes to the Utah Jazz,
01:46who had the worst record last year at 17-65.
01:49But Ace, who likes to get his shots up, and basically will have the green light we expect in Salt Lake to do the same.
01:56If Ace Bailey's out there averaging 25 points per game, even if Utah's won 12 of them,
02:01hey, well, that's a pretty good sign for his Rookie of the Year candidacy.
02:04Yeah, and we take a look, too, like the extracurriculars, Ben, that I like to take a look at.
02:09In the NFL, like a Joe Burrell throws for a ton of yards but doesn't make the playoffs.
02:13And you say, well, how can he be the MVP of the league and your team's not even in the playoffs being at the quarterback position?
02:18We see it so many times as well in other sports, even like Major League Baseball,
02:21where sometimes like, okay, the MVP, do you give the guy the nod if he's hitting 50 home runs in a playoff race?
02:26Or do you give the nod to a guy with 55 home runs that team is not in the playoffs?
02:30It's not fair to be a most valuable player because the rest of your team isn't performing.
02:33But we know it's a human element that sort of dips into the equation.
02:36And you're right.
02:37What happens if the Dallas Mavericks are the number one seed next year in the NDA,
02:41in the Western Conference, when it's all said and done, and Flagg was averaging 15-9?
02:46Is he going to get a bump up there?
02:47Or would you say, well, if Flagg actually got drafted to Utah number one overall,
02:50let's just say if Utah had that pick, and he averaged 25-9, like, oh, he's the Rookie of the Year.
02:55But he's not the Rookie of the Year because he's playing on a team and playing team basketball
02:58and still excelling at that point.
03:00Those are the questions.
03:01So when we talk about, and you're right, like, Cooper Flagg is the best of the bunch.
03:04We're not even doubting that here.
03:05But it's just that how are the voters going to vote because what is a Rookie of the Year to you?
03:10Typically, it's a stat-driven business because most of the time, Ben, a generational talent at number one,
03:16he went to a franchise that won nine games, and he's only going to be the focal point.
03:20That didn't happen this year.
03:21So it's almost like a case study we're going to have.
03:23Like when Webb and Yama goes to San Antonio, it's like, hey, kid, learn the business, work it out.
03:27We're going to put you in every scenario you need to be in and have a high usage rate
03:31so by the next couple years, you'll be ready to be an NDP of the league.
03:35Cooper Flagg doesn't have that.
03:36He's with a veteran team here, expected to win right away.
03:39He's not going to be the go-to guy on day number one.
03:41But hear me out.
03:43He averages 20-plus points on that Dallas Mavericks team this year.
03:46His number by, like, February will be minus 50,000.
