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Marvin Harrison Jr.'s High Expectations & NFL Prop Bets
SportsGrid
Follow
5/26/2024
Category
🥇
Sports
Transcript
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00:00
(upbeat music)
00:02
- Joe, let's start with Marvin Harrison Jr.
00:07
because this is the one where I think the book
00:08
is gonna take in a windfall of handle.
00:11
How do we handicap Marvin Harrison Jr.?
00:13
- Well, it's tricky because the expectations are very high.
00:18
We talked about him.
00:18
I already have him ranked as a wide receiver one
00:20
and Vegas is kind of telling you the same thing
00:23
because these over-unders that they set for the props
00:26
are basically projections and they're setting them already
00:29
at a thousand yards receiving.
00:31
And I think he can go over this in his first season.
00:33
If he's healthy and Kyler Murray healthy,
00:35
regardless of the offensive line issues,
00:37
and there are issues there still to work out.
00:40
It's hard to imagine not going over a thousand yards
00:42
this year, just from the sheer volume he's gonna have.
00:45
And let's also keep in mind too,
00:47
in our brains we keep thinking of a thousand yards
00:49
the last couple of decades as a 16 game season, right?
00:53
Well, now it's not 17.
00:55
So you have an extra game to get a thousand yards.
00:57
That used to be the standard, right?
00:58
The thousand yards of the 16 game season.
01:01
Well, now you have an extra game to get.
01:02
And I think he can absolutely do that.
01:04
Minus one 10 right now, I would go with the over on this.
01:07
I think it's very reasonable for him to get to that number.
01:10
And it's also telling you that Vegas sees things
01:13
the same way as the fantasy community,
01:15
which is this guy is going to be ready to be good from jump
01:18
and to kind of take the world by storm, if you will.
01:21
And already the projections of fantasy pros
01:23
have met 1200 yards.
01:25
So this is not close.
01:26
This is, we're talking like a 200 yard difference.
01:30
- Sure.
01:30
- I'm a broken line,
01:33
but a line where Vegas is protecting itself a little bit.
01:36
But I think you smash the over right now on this
01:38
before it scoots up to 1050 to 1100.
01:41
And then ultimately closer to 12,
01:43
as we get maybe to September,
01:45
especially if he has some really good looks
01:46
in the preseason and all of a sudden in training camp,
01:49
things look really good.
01:50
But the touchdown totals again, five and a half.
01:53
I would lean towards the over on that.
01:56
You're getting a better number at the minus 112,
01:59
but at the same time,
02:00
touchdowns can be a little wacky sometimes.
02:02
So I would stay away from that.
02:04
And instead just double up on the over
02:06
on the thousand yards and a thousand and a half.
02:08
'Cause to me, I think that's the one
02:09
you can really control.
02:11
Touchdowns are tough to control.
02:13
There's a lot of arbitrary moments
02:14
that happen in a football game,
02:16
but volume you can control.
02:18
And I think that's always the thing to come back to
02:20
in your wagering on a weekly basis,
02:22
when you're looking at individual performance games too.
02:25
And the same thing, you step back
02:26
and you look at the futures, it's the same thing.
02:27
I can kind of get where the volume's coming from,
02:30
the touchdowns at the end of the day,
02:32
a little bit more volatile.
02:33
(upbeat music)
02:36
(bells chiming)
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1:42
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