Marvin Harrison Jr.'s High Expectations & NFL Prop Bets

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00:00 (upbeat music)

00:02 - Joe, let's start with Marvin Harrison Jr.

00:07 because this is the one where I think the book

00:08 is gonna take in a windfall of handle.

00:11 How do we handicap Marvin Harrison Jr.?

00:13 - Well, it's tricky because the expectations are very high.

00:18 We talked about him.

00:18 I already have him ranked as a wide receiver one

00:20 and Vegas is kind of telling you the same thing

00:23 because these over-unders that they set for the props

00:26 are basically projections and they're setting them already

00:29 at a thousand yards receiving.

00:31 And I think he can go over this in his first season.

00:33 If he's healthy and Kyler Murray healthy,

00:35 regardless of the offensive line issues,

00:37 and there are issues there still to work out.

00:40 It's hard to imagine not going over a thousand yards

00:42 this year, just from the sheer volume he's gonna have.

00:45 And let's also keep in mind too,

00:47 in our brains we keep thinking of a thousand yards

00:49 the last couple of decades as a 16 game season, right?

00:53 Well, now it's not 17.

00:55 So you have an extra game to get a thousand yards.

00:57 That used to be the standard, right?

00:58 The thousand yards of the 16 game season.

01:01 Well, now you have an extra game to get.

01:02 And I think he can absolutely do that.

01:04 Minus one 10 right now, I would go with the over on this.

01:07 I think it's very reasonable for him to get to that number.

01:10 And it's also telling you that Vegas sees things

01:13 the same way as the fantasy community,

01:15 which is this guy is going to be ready to be good from jump

01:18 and to kind of take the world by storm, if you will.

01:21 And already the projections of fantasy pros

01:23 have met 1200 yards.

01:25 So this is not close.

01:26 This is, we're talking like a 200 yard difference.

01:30 - Sure.

01:30 - I'm a broken line,

01:33 but a line where Vegas is protecting itself a little bit.

01:36 But I think you smash the over right now on this

01:38 before it scoots up to 1050 to 1100.

01:41 And then ultimately closer to 12,

01:43 as we get maybe to September,

01:45 especially if he has some really good looks

01:46 in the preseason and all of a sudden in training camp,

01:49 things look really good.

01:50 But the touchdown totals again, five and a half.

01:53 I would lean towards the over on that.

01:56 You're getting a better number at the minus 112,

01:59 but at the same time,

02:00 touchdowns can be a little wacky sometimes.

02:02 So I would stay away from that.

02:04 And instead just double up on the over

02:06 on the thousand yards and a thousand and a half.

02:08 'Cause to me, I think that's the one

02:09 you can really control.

02:11 Touchdowns are tough to control.

02:13 There's a lot of arbitrary moments

02:14 that happen in a football game,

02:16 but volume you can control.

02:18 And I think that's always the thing to come back to

02:20 in your wagering on a weekly basis,

02:22 when you're looking at individual performance games too.

02:25 And the same thing, you step back

02:26 and you look at the futures, it's the same thing.

02:27 I can kind of get where the volume's coming from,

02:30 the touchdowns at the end of the day,

02:32 a little bit more volatile.

02:33 (upbeat music)

02:36 (bells chiming)

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