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00:00 Let's look at some of these props here.
00:04 We start with Christian McCaffrey.
00:06 We'll look at his rushing yards.
00:07 We'll look at his total rushing yards, total receiving yards,
00:09 and on and on we'll go.
00:11 And let's have the conversation.
00:12 Let's go.
00:14 Look, he had a phenomenal season last year.
00:15 Christian McCaffrey was over 1,400 rushing yards last year.
00:18 He led the league in rushing yards.
00:20 So for him to lead it again, that's three to one odds.
00:23 I would shy away from that and instead
00:25 go for the rushing yard total, which
00:26 is 1,200, which I think is a pretty reasonable number.
00:29 So we're going to say there's going
00:30 to be regression of 259 yards year over year.
00:35 That I can live with as an over.
00:36 I think that is a much better investment, much safer
00:39 investment.
00:39 Is it as sexy as the three to one?
00:41 No, because you're getting minus one down.
00:43 So again, it's more of an investment than a bet,
00:46 quote unquote.
00:48 But Derrick Henry is really intriguing
00:50 with the Baltimore Ravens.
00:51 This is an offense--
00:52 the problem is the Tennessee Titans couldn't move the chains.
00:55 So no matter how good Derrick Henry was,
00:57 his opportunities were limited.
00:59 When Lamar Jackson can take a third and long
01:01 and turn into a first down on his own,
01:03 there's more opportunities for Derrick Henry.
01:05 He's going to keep on the field more.
01:07 And you could have a situation where Derrick Henry gets back
01:09 to being that guy that leads the leagues
01:10 and going back to that 1,300, 1,400 yard guy.
01:13 So he could get back into that conversation.
01:16 It's hard because there's not a lot of Belcal running backs,
01:17 a lot of three down backs, a lot of teams
01:19 that want to run the football.
01:21 So you are limited in your choices
01:23 there of who is going to lead the league in rushing.
01:26 But I think the over on the 1,200 and a half,
01:29 excuse me, for Christian McCaffrey makes a lot of sense.
01:31 The receiving yards is 500 and a half.
01:35 Last year, 564.
01:37 I would go maybe on the under on that one.
01:39 Again, a little bit of regression here, potentially.
01:42 And I think that certainly could be the case.
01:44 They did draft Ricky Pearsall too.
01:45 So if Debo's there and Kittle's there and Ayuk's there
01:48 and Pearsall's there, McCaffrey's still
01:50 going to work in the passing game a lot.
01:53 But I think on a scale back a little bit,
01:55 I think it would be smart, especially trying
01:56 to get him through playoffs if they have their designs on that.
01:58 And I know they do.
01:59 Total rushing touchdowns, 10 and a half.
02:01 That's the number.
02:02 Now, that's an interesting number.
02:03 Last year, he had 21 total touchdowns.
02:07 So of all the numbers where typically I'm
02:08 staying away from touchdowns, 10 and a half
02:12 for Christian McCaffrey is total rushing touchdowns.
02:15 Again, we're talking about 14 last year, combined 21.
02:19 I would look for the combined number
02:20 and see if we could do that instead.
02:22 For the rushing touchdowns at 10 and a half,
02:25 I think I would still go the over on that.
02:27 I mean, that's a four difference from last year.
02:29 And you saw the goal line, they're willing to use him.
02:31 So I think as long as he's healthy, that's a good one.
02:33 Then total receiving touchdowns, 5 and a half.
02:35 That one I would stay away from because it's too close.
02:37 So Christian McCaffrey, again, I think the best thing to do
02:39 is just look for that rushing yards total at minus money
02:43 and take that instead.
02:45 (upbeat music)
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