What will a 'supercharged' hurricane season look like?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva talks about the potential for major hurricanes in 2024 with the start of hurricane season being less than a month away.

Transcript

00:00You know it was a several weeks ago we talked about the supercharged season because of many

00:05factors and we've gone over them quite a bit here but for anybody that missed this

00:10let's go over the forecast that you and the long range team issued several weeks ago.

00:16Yeah it looks like it's going to be all systems go for a very active hurricane season this year.

00:21We are calling for 20 to 25 named storms well above the historical average of 14 named storms

00:278 to 12 hurricanes again above the historical average of 7 and we expect 4 to 7 of those

00:32hurricanes to turn into major hurricanes which would be category 3 or above. We're also calling

00:38for 4 to 6 direct impacts on the United States. You know Alex and when you take a look at the

00:44hurricane season you know obviously we tend to see most of the storms during the peak of the season

00:51mid-August through September and you'll see that secondary season October 1st in well the month

00:57of October but early season development is something that we've seen quite a bit early

01:02season during the months of June and July. Well we took a look at 11 years which have similarities

01:08to this upcoming hurricane season and out of those 11 years six years actually had tropical

01:14development prior to June 1st which is the official start of the hurricane season so yes

01:19it can happen and it is possible that we do see early season if not a pre-season development this

01:25season. And what makes that tough Alex it's not like when we see the development early in the

01:29season we're tracking this tropical days away for days that we can really get a sense in a

01:36longer period of time of tropical development because during the month of June it's more what

01:41we call homegrown development. Absolutely it's going to be closer to home we get development

01:47early in the season typically closer to home so we're talking Gulf of Mexico,

01:51Western Caribbean and right off of the Southeastern United States. Yeah and how this happens is it's a

01:57little different it's not tropical waves that's developing it's the interaction between the jet

02:02stream and the tropics. Typically early in the season we see the jet stream dip to the south

02:08across the Western Caribbean or even the Gulf of Mexico and we get little areas of spin that can

02:12form off the end of the trough or off the end of some cold fronts that may dip down and that's

02:17where our tropical systems early in the season are born. And again it could be anywhere across the

02:22Gulf, Mexico, Caribbean and the Southwest Atlantic. So the question is Alex and I have our ocean

02:29temperature anomaly if that is the case there are some clues on where that would be most likely to

02:36develop. Yeah you can see based on the orange there above average sea surface temperatures in

02:40the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. So I think over the next couple of weeks and into the

02:45beginning of June I think these are the areas we're really going to have to watch for tropical

02:50development. All right Alex Da Silva our hurricane expert we'll be talking with you throughout the

02:58season Alex as you and the long range forecast team has highlighted it's going to be a busy

03:02busy year. Thanks Alex.

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