Snowstorm to bring up to a foot of snow to parts of the Northeast

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter looks at the complicated Northeast storm forecast, which is expected to bring significant snow to the region.

Transcript

00:00 There's lots of challenges with this forecast.

00:04 Let's take them one by one.

00:05 Yeah.

00:06 Cold air, not a lot, but some.

00:09 Just enough.

00:10 This is what we've been talking about.

00:12 There was an injection of cold air focused especially across the interior parts of the

00:17 Northeast.

00:18 But take a look at this map of high temperatures today.

00:20 50 in New York, 51 in Washington, 48 Pittsburgh.

00:23 There's not a lot of cold air to start with.

00:25 That's issue number one.

00:27 Number two, though, when you take a look at this, John, dew point temperatures, they're

00:31 low.

00:32 They're not in the teens, but they're dry enough for if you get heavy precipitation

00:38 for some snow.

00:39 That's right.

00:40 And that maybe is the key to what we've been talking about here over the last several days

00:43 because the air is drier, which means when you start to moisten it, those temperatures

00:47 will fall.

00:48 And you can see those dew points, 27 in New York and Boston, and they're in the mid-20s

00:52 from Northern Pennsylvania into interior Southern New England.

00:55 That's why we've always been concerned about those areas in terms of where the core of

00:59 the snow will be.

01:00 All right, let's talk about the storm itself.

01:02 So we have enough cold air for snow.

01:05 The question is now storm track.

01:07 And when you look at the radar, you're drawn to the Southeast because there's lots of lightning,

01:12 lots of rain.

01:13 But that is not the storm in itself.

01:15 No, that's part of it.

01:17 That's the associated moisture.

01:18 And there will be ample moisture surging up the East Coast to promote heavy precipitation

01:23 with this storm as it intensifies.

01:25 But here's the swirl Bernie.

01:26 This is what we've been talking about, this rotation here, the swirl in the clouds and

01:31 the rain and snow that are occurring across the Southern Plains.

01:34 That's the key to this, one of the keys to this forecast.

01:37 And you know, John, it was last week that, remember that map that we made, it had the

01:40 two areas of energy, the Northern piece and the Southern piece, how they interact with

01:45 each other.

01:46 That is the key.

01:47 Right.

01:48 Well, here they are.

01:49 And here's that storm.

01:50 That's the one we just pointed out swirling in the Southern Plains as we head toward later

01:54 tonight at 11 p.m. that moves up into the Ohio Valley.

01:58 That's part number one.

01:59 Here's part number two coming across the Great Lakes.

02:02 And the question has always been, how do these interplay in order to get a big storm?

02:07 It comes down to very small details into how these storms or how these two systems interact.

02:13 Looks like this storm is going to continue to make its way off to the north and east

02:15 here.

02:16 The question will be, does it come up the coast or take a little bit further of a southward

02:21 jog?

02:22 If that happens, then we're going to have to reduce the snow amounts as the storm will

02:25 be drawn further to the south.

02:27 It all comes down to the intensity of this jet stream disturbance coming across the Great

02:32 Lakes.

02:33 And our team of over 100 expert meteorologists are watching that minute by minute.

02:36 Now, let's take a look at future radar here quickly, John, and then we'll get into some

02:40 snow accumulations here.

02:42 Now, listen, it's starting his rain in New York City, Philadelphia.

02:45 No problem, Washington, D.C.

02:47 Let's start right here at around 7 o'clock in the morning.

02:52 John, take it over.

02:53 You'll notice that everything starts to change over to the snow.

02:56 See, look at the blue in here.

02:57 This is indicative of where the snow is going to be occurring.

02:59 And see how that collapses toward the coast as some of that colder air gets drawn into

03:03 the storm system.

03:04 And the rate of snowfall increases even close to the coast.

03:08 Now, as we get toward tomorrow morning, tomorrow afternoon, everything ends.

03:12 In New York City and Philadelphia, the tricky part is, does it precipitate hard enough to

03:18 accumulate?

03:19 Here's a big map, then we'll zone in.

03:21 Overall, north of Interstate 80, Pennsylvania, southern New England, that appears right now

03:26 where the air is cold enough for mostly all snow.

03:29 Right.

03:30 That's from the Poconos into northern New Jersey, the Catskills into interior southern

03:34 New England.

03:35 So Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and much of Massachusetts, including Boston.

03:39 Pretty good snowstorm there.

03:41 Now, there's our Wintercast forecast for Boston, 6 to 10 inches of snow.

03:44 You'll notice there is a possibility of a little more than that noted by Wintercast.

03:50 That's correct.

03:51 And these details for your community available in the AccuWeather app for every location,

03:55 great resource to understand when it's going to start and how much may fall.

03:59 Now, there's New York City, and this is the real tough forecast, John.

04:02 That's right.

04:03 Look at how a sharp variation here, right in the city, could be dealing with 1 to 3

04:08 inches out to Long Island, but 3 to 6 just to the north.

04:12 Yonkers, the northern part of the Bronx up to Westchester County.

04:15 So that's the kind of sharp variation we're going to be talking about with these temperatures

04:19 very borderline for heavy snow.

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