Major winter storm brewing for next week

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter breaks down the risk of a major winter storm expected to be brewing by next week with several regions of the U.S. at risk of heavy snowfall.

Transcript

00:00You know, John, we've been talking about this pattern, the long range team highlighted this

00:05back in December. Paul Passlock, meteorologist, both meteorologists and John and Joe Lumberg

00:12both mentioned how stormy February was going to be. We called it February frenzy 10 days ago.

00:19Now there's a little light at the end of the tunnel next week.

00:23Yeah, that's right, Bernie. Joe and Paul and our entire long range team,

00:27they identified that risk months in advance ahead of other node sources so that people could be

00:32best prepared for that very active and energetic weather pattern. And we do see a light at the

00:37end of the tunnel here, but there's always a but and the but on this one is that there'll

00:41be less storms next week. But the one that happens looks like a major storm.

00:47Yeah, and a lot of and behind that, Joe Lumberg talked about this yesterday.

00:51He feels as if this is the final storm and then a little bit of a break. All right,

00:56whenever we're talking about a snowstorm, John, old school AccuWeather meteorology,

01:01we were taught this the second we walked in this door. Always beware of an injection of Arctic

01:07cold air. That's where it always begins. Yeah, we've learned to in regards to this

01:12setup. There's two components here. One is watch for a fresh injection of cold air. That's item

01:17number one. And number two, in a very active weather pattern, watch the caboose. That's the

01:22last storm in the in the end of the storm train, because a lot of times that's associated with a

01:27pattern change when there's a lot more energetics in the atmosphere. And this storm has got those

01:33both of those setups. Let's talk about the upper air, John. There's the cold air. And you know,

01:37cold air goes all the way down the interstate 20. So now we have a boundary stuck there.

01:42And all you need is additional energy to form a storm along that boundary. And there's that

01:48energy. Now, the key is, John, you and I were talking about this where there's going to be a

01:52storm. What dictates where this storm goes will be the strength and the location of the upper low

02:00across the upper Midwest. Right. You often talk about these upper level areas of low pressures

02:05being bringing mischief and mayhem. And this one is going to be a similar type of setup because

02:10how deep the upper low is and exactly its timing coming crossing the Great Lakes. It's going to

02:16be interacting with a new storm system that's going to come in all the way from the Pacific

02:21coast down into the plains. And as those two storm systems interact, how they do and when

02:27they do that will really have a very important impact on the track of the eventual storm,

02:33because if that storm then comes up the coast, we're going to have the biggest snowstorm of the

02:38season in the big cities from Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, up to Boston.

02:44However, if there's not as much interaction between those storms, it can be drawn out to

02:48sea and there can be some snow on the northern edge down in the mid-Atlantic. So a couple

02:53different scenarios there. Big storms going to happen. It's just what's the track. Now,

02:57it's early for a snowfall accumulation, but you know, we are always concerned that we want to give

03:02you as much notice as possible, John. So let's talk about the risk of six inches or more with

03:08this storm. Yeah, this is another exclusive AccuWeather tool. You won't see this anywhere

03:12else today other than AccuWeather because we're showcasing what our team of over 100 expert

03:18meteorologists, what's in our mind. We're communicating that so you can be best informed

03:23and have the most advanced notice. Take a look at this. This is the risk of six or more inches

03:27of snow, and the colors show the percent risk. So one to 15% in the green, up to 30 to 45% in the

03:35red. And look at what we've got here, highlighting this corridor right along the I-95 corridor in

03:40the big cities with the greatest risk for six or more inches of snow. Now, that is a bucket between

03:4530 and 45%, so it's not a huge risk at this moment because we're several days out, but this is where

03:52we're most concerned about six or more inches. And you can see it tails back into the interior as

03:58well, but a greater risk for six or more inches in the big cities right along the coastline.

04:02And then we come back toward portions of the plains as the storm gets going. We also think

04:06there could be a separate area there, northwestern Arkansas over toward southwest Missouri, parts of

04:13Kansas and Oklahoma as well, as the storm system gets going. So you notice a big area here with

04:18risk for significant snow. Here you want to check back with us here at AccuWeather

04:23through the next several days, the AccuWeather.com app, a great resource. And of course, here on the

04:28AccuWeather network, that AccuWeather app is a free app. It has a great tool called Wintercast

04:33that allows you to track the specifics of the storm for wherever you're interested in.

04:37Really quickly, let's take this full really quick. The other thing is, where are we starting to get a

04:42little more confidence that we can get that six inches or more? It's not high yet, but we are

04:48starting to increase our probability from Boston, Washington, D.C. toward Charleston. We're going to

04:53keep an eye on it. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Border. John, thanks for joining us here

04:58on AccuWeather Early.

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