Predicting Game Total and Team Strategies for Super Bowl LVIII

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00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:03 You're really having to, in your head,

00:07 figure out what you think the game

00:08 plan with the game script is going to look like.

00:10 This total at 47, very sharp, but we're

00:13 trying to figure out high scoring, low scoring.

00:16 What's generally the way you like to attack it

00:18 from the start if you're talking totals?

00:20 Well, first of all, a little disclaimer.

00:22 Totals are not necessarily my area of expertise.

00:25 I typically try and bet sides probably 95% of the time.

00:30 But obviously, this is a game, an isolated, an island game,

00:35 if you will, where you don't--

00:36 I mean, you have a ton of options in the prop market.

00:39 But otherwise, you have to just pick one side or one total.

00:42 We don't have 16 games on the schedule anymore.

00:45 So yes, I've been looking at the total,

00:47 and it's interesting to see that it really

00:49 has hardly moved at all.

00:50 We did see a tick here in Las Vegas up to 48 for a minute.

00:54 It came back down to 47 and 1/2.

00:58 I talked to a lot of people on Radio Road today,

01:00 interviewed a number of handicappers,

01:02 professional bettors, what have you, media types.

01:04 And the first half a dozen people we spoke with

01:07 all liked the under.

01:09 Then we started to get some leans towards the over.

01:13 I looked at the average scoring for both of these teams.

01:15 The Niners throughout the year scored a little over 29 points

01:18 per game, and it was roughly the same number when they played

01:21 against playoff teams.

01:23 And same for the Kansas City Chiefs.

01:25 They scored about 22 and 1/2 points per game,

01:27 and I think it went to 23 or so against playoff teams.

01:31 So you're looking at 29-23 as a final score.

01:34 That's 52 points.

01:36 I kind of think it will go over.

01:39 Now you look at the shift towards the running game

01:42 and Isaiah Pacheco for the Kansas City Chiefs.

01:45 Obviously, the well-established running attack

01:48 for the San Francisco 49ers.

01:50 That will tend to take time off a clock, tick, tick, tick,

01:53 when you rush that football.

01:54 Keep the ball in bounds.

01:55 Don't throw incomplete passes.

01:57 And that will tend to lead towards a game that

01:59 goes under the total.

02:02 But it's hard to wrap my head around this game

02:06 being so slow-paced.

02:08 I think both of these teams can score.

02:10 Now San Francisco, you look at EPA per play.

02:14 Basically, all the ratings you can find out there.

02:16 Number one offense in football.

02:17 Absolutely.

02:18 All the weapons.

02:19 The Kansas City Chiefs, the Niners

02:21 have played better offenses in the last couple of weeks

02:23 in the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.

02:26 So Will San Francisco's defense is woes.

02:30 Their defense has fallen off a lot ever since week 11

02:34 when Telenoa Hufanga got injured.

02:37 That really opened up the Niners' run defense.

02:41 In week 11, they were fifth in EPA per play.

02:44 And now they are currently 14th.

02:47 So it's real what you're seeing about their defense falling

02:49 off.

02:50 It has been a real deal.

02:53 And maybe--

02:54 And particularly, Brady, their inability

02:55 to get off the field on third down.

02:57 Their third down defense has been a massive issue.

02:58 That's really been a problem more so the entire season.

03:01 But you're exactly right.

03:02 Getting off the field on third down has been a huge issue.

03:05 So maybe this Kansas City offense

03:07 that's a little bit more sputtering than we're used to

03:10 will have more success against the 49er defense that

03:12 has been having some struggles as of late.

03:15 And we know that the weakness of the Kansas City

03:18 defense for years, really in the Patrick Mahomes era,

03:21 has always been defending the run.

03:23 So I think if Patrick Mahomes and company can

03:25 have some success on offense, and the Niners can have success

03:29 rushing the football, I think there

03:31 are going to be points scored.

03:33 I'm looking at-- I would say the game will land right

03:36 around 50 is my guess.

03:38 49 to 51 would be my window.

03:42 (upbeat music)

03:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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