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Predicting Game Total and Team Strategies for Super Bowl LVIII
SportsGrid
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2/8/2024
Category
🥇
Sports
Transcript
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00:00
[MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03
You're really having to, in your head,
00:07
figure out what you think the game
00:08
plan with the game script is going to look like.
00:10
This total at 47, very sharp, but we're
00:13
trying to figure out high scoring, low scoring.
00:16
What's generally the way you like to attack it
00:18
from the start if you're talking totals?
00:20
Well, first of all, a little disclaimer.
00:22
Totals are not necessarily my area of expertise.
00:25
I typically try and bet sides probably 95% of the time.
00:30
But obviously, this is a game, an isolated, an island game,
00:35
if you will, where you don't--
00:36
I mean, you have a ton of options in the prop market.
00:39
But otherwise, you have to just pick one side or one total.
00:42
We don't have 16 games on the schedule anymore.
00:45
So yes, I've been looking at the total,
00:47
and it's interesting to see that it really
00:49
has hardly moved at all.
00:50
We did see a tick here in Las Vegas up to 48 for a minute.
00:54
It came back down to 47 and 1/2.
00:58
I talked to a lot of people on Radio Road today,
01:00
interviewed a number of handicappers,
01:02
professional bettors, what have you, media types.
01:04
And the first half a dozen people we spoke with
01:07
all liked the under.
01:09
Then we started to get some leans towards the over.
01:13
I looked at the average scoring for both of these teams.
01:15
The Niners throughout the year scored a little over 29 points
01:18
per game, and it was roughly the same number when they played
01:21
against playoff teams.
01:23
And same for the Kansas City Chiefs.
01:25
They scored about 22 and 1/2 points per game,
01:27
and I think it went to 23 or so against playoff teams.
01:31
So you're looking at 29-23 as a final score.
01:34
That's 52 points.
01:36
I kind of think it will go over.
01:39
Now you look at the shift towards the running game
01:42
and Isaiah Pacheco for the Kansas City Chiefs.
01:45
Obviously, the well-established running attack
01:48
for the San Francisco 49ers.
01:50
That will tend to take time off a clock, tick, tick, tick,
01:53
when you rush that football.
01:54
Keep the ball in bounds.
01:55
Don't throw incomplete passes.
01:57
And that will tend to lead towards a game that
01:59
goes under the total.
02:02
But it's hard to wrap my head around this game
02:06
being so slow-paced.
02:08
I think both of these teams can score.
02:10
Now San Francisco, you look at EPA per play.
02:14
Basically, all the ratings you can find out there.
02:16
Number one offense in football.
02:17
Absolutely.
02:18
All the weapons.
02:19
The Kansas City Chiefs, the Niners
02:21
have played better offenses in the last couple of weeks
02:23
in the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.
02:26
So Will San Francisco's defense is woes.
02:30
Their defense has fallen off a lot ever since week 11
02:34
when Telenoa Hufanga got injured.
02:37
That really opened up the Niners' run defense.
02:41
In week 11, they were fifth in EPA per play.
02:44
And now they are currently 14th.
02:47
So it's real what you're seeing about their defense falling
02:49
off.
02:50
It has been a real deal.
02:53
And maybe--
02:54
And particularly, Brady, their inability
02:55
to get off the field on third down.
02:57
Their third down defense has been a massive issue.
02:58
That's really been a problem more so the entire season.
03:01
But you're exactly right.
03:02
Getting off the field on third down has been a huge issue.
03:05
So maybe this Kansas City offense
03:07
that's a little bit more sputtering than we're used to
03:10
will have more success against the 49er defense that
03:12
has been having some struggles as of late.
03:15
And we know that the weakness of the Kansas City
03:18
defense for years, really in the Patrick Mahomes era,
03:21
has always been defending the run.
03:23
So I think if Patrick Mahomes and company can
03:25
have some success on offense, and the Niners can have success
03:29
rushing the football, I think there
03:31
are going to be points scored.
03:33
I'm looking at-- I would say the game will land right
03:36
around 50 is my guess.
03:38
49 to 51 would be my window.
03:42
(upbeat music)
03:44
[BLANK_AUDIO]
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3:35
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