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  • 12/3/2023
Election Results of 2023 assembly polls in Telangana, MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh unfold. Follow OneIndia English for real-time coverage. Political Analyst Rajalaksmi Joshi provides exclusive insights as the BJP widens lead in Madhya Pradesh and Challenges Exit Polls. Get the latest vote counting details and data. The results promise crucial insights into states' political landscapes and in the run up to 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

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00:00 in your opinion, starting with Madhya Pradesh, how crucial is it for Mamaji Shivraj Singh Chauhan
00:05 to wish for and to hope that his last minute bout, his last minute punch, you know, with the
00:12 Ladli Behna and other programs would bear him results? Contrary to what you're saying, I don't
00:19 think that Ladli Behna is a last minute push. You know, he has been around for the last 18 years
00:25 and whatever the exit polls are indicating, if they're any way close to reality, you know,
00:33 just imagine that after this heavy anti-incumbency, I mean, there is an expected anti-incumbency,
00:40 just imagine 18 years. So he must have definitely done some things right. And, you know, so he is
00:47 a very popular face there. So he has always been looked up as Mamaji, you know, so that is how
00:55 all the ladies look up to him. And, you know, that is the kind of rapport that he has built
01:01 with the women force. And in today's times, the very interesting fact is that, you know,
01:07 even in Chhattisgarh and even in Madhya Pradesh, the women voters are more in number than the
01:14 men voters. So then, you know, that is this important factor that all these political
01:20 parties are trying to appeal to. So this Ladli Behna has made him a ladla, I think of the voters.
01:27 That is the kind of results that you can see. One thing we have to give it to Shivraj
01:35 Sunchohan is his popularity. And you're right, women folk taking him as his, you know, brother
01:41 and the whole state calling him Mamaji only proves that he has been able to strike the right chord.
01:47 And as far as women voters are concerned, we have seen two states, you know, relying heavily. First
01:53 was Uttar Pradesh. We saw how even Yogi Aditya came back to power, much to the credit to the
01:59 women voters and the guarantees also that came. And likewise, Madhya Pradesh. What is so unique
02:06 about Madhya Pradesh? I mean, politically, Kamal Nath, you know, 2020, he was again ousted and
02:14 Shivraj Sunchohan has been defeated for, I guess, 15 years now. Do you believe that
02:19 a law of averages factor is there or is just good work that will see them through?
02:25 See, what I feel is, you know, initially, even Uttar Pradesh and even Bihar, they were part of
02:34 this thing called as a bimaru state. So just so this turnaround, you know, so there was this
02:42 huge problem of law and order, and especially the ladies, they had a lot of difficulty,
02:50 say, maybe stepping out of their houses or getting into, maybe in terms of education or even
02:57 pursuing any career. So they had very few opportunities, especially looking at the
03:02 women folk, I'm saying, and even law and order in general and education, you know, all of these
03:08 factors, they were a bimaru state. So I'm talking about Uttar Pradesh as well, since you mentioned
03:13 it. So, you know, so this, this thing definitely is a big factor. And, you know, a lot of people,
03:21 they look at the Yogiji's measures as extreme measures, but then like they say, you know,
03:28 some desperate situations, they definitely need desperate measures also. So similarly,
03:34 even Shivraj Singh Johan, I think has turned around a lot of things. And that is a major part
03:42 there. And, you know, there were a lot of issues like say, for example, with the Congress. Now,
03:49 the thing is that especially say, maybe during the Bhopal gas tragedy, now, you know, a lot of
03:55 us have not really mentioned any of that in the past so many days. But then that is something
04:02 that definitely is still there in the memories of a lot of people. And the inaction of the Congress
04:08 government at that time, and all of that is definitely something that is playing into
04:15 the minds of the voters even now. So the and they have the Congress has to do a lot, they have to
04:23 promise a lot, they have to show something really drastic for the voter to completely shift their
04:30 mind and shift themselves from the BJP. Now, the thing is that in Madhya Pradesh, interestingly,
04:37 it's like, you know, they have there are six different regions, as you might be aware,
04:42 and each of them has their own kind of food, they have their own kind of issues, they have their
04:47 own kind of different accents. And so it's like six different elections, if you look at it. So
04:53 all of them have their own issues. And in three of them, BJP is a strong factor. And to add to it,
05:00 now, Jyotiraditya Singh also is a part of the BJP. So just imagine the Congress were not able to
05:08 hold on to that one strong factor, who had this huge influence over the Chambal region, you know,
05:17 so that is a big setback to the Congress, I think. So then he has taken this huge chunk,
05:25 and contrary to what most people used to believe that, you know, that is going to upset the voters.
05:31 See, it was the indication was that in fact, immediately after that, whatever bypaws happened,
05:38 you know, the BJP came back with 22. So then just imagine out of those 26 seats from that region,
05:46 22 came to the BJP at that time also, even with the elections. So I think that, you know,
05:53 that was something that the Congress lost heavily on. So they are not able to keep their people,
05:59 they're not able to give the next line of leaders, the next rank of leaders. So if you look at it,
06:06 Kamal Nath being one phase there, that actually would be a plus for the Congress also, but at the
06:12 same time, they don't have any other leaders to be actually mentioned here right now, apart from
06:19 Rigvijay Singh, who I think, you know, that he has been known for making all kinds of statements,
06:26 which go against the interests of his own party. So there are a lot of things that the Congress
06:31 needs to look into, they have to build up the next line of leaders to be able to actually
06:37 hold their force in Madhya Pradesh and in other places also. So this thing about not wanting to
06:43 change that old guard, I think that also is a very important factor there for the Congress.
06:48 Absolutely. I mean, you know, 14 such a generations in, you know, these elections and
06:56 Congress, the definitely will have to look for at least a next generation leader, be Kamal Nath,
07:01 Rigvijay Singh, I think, I think, you know, could be one of the last elections that these
07:08 gentlemen would be contesting. Rajiv Akshay, you're right when it comes to
07:13 in what Congress would have done better, and what BJP has been continuously working at,
07:20 is it connected with the people and also giving them what they want. When it comes to Rajasthan,
07:27 the scenario between Sachin Pilate and Ashok Ganglod earlier was not amicable. Congress
07:34 tried hard to get the house in order. But this time around, what appears is, do you believe that
07:39 BJP right now with Vasundhara Raj, not the primary base, not a chief ministerial base, again, from
07:46 the BJP in Rajasthan, you believe that BJP needs to do some soul searching and getting the house
07:52 order in Rajasthan? In Rajasthan, what the BJP has done is they have done a seed by seed kind of
08:02 a strategy. So they have approached every seed differently, every, whatever the ground issues
08:10 might have been, they have looked at it differently, just as say, maybe the BJP learned from
08:16 the Congress, what the Congress did in Karnataka, the BJP has done in Rajasthan. So what they have
08:23 done is, instead of actually focusing on the main face or whatever, they have actually tried to look
08:29 at every seed differently. And they have approached it in that way. So that then at the end of the day,
08:37 you know, whatever the situation may be, then accordingly, you know, looking at the numbers,
08:43 then they can take a call. So that is how the BJP has approached this. So I think that was a smart
08:49 strategy. And they have not really put Vasundhara Raj out of the race. But at the same time,
08:57 they are not focused on her either. So, you know, whatever strengths and weaknesses are there,
09:02 it's of the entire party. So it's not focusing on one particular individual. But it's looking at
09:08 the entire thing is one party and looking at what the entire party has to offer rather than one
09:14 particular individual. And that is what they have done in all the states. So you cannot really say
09:19 that this person was a failure or this person was a success. And so that is why they are focused on
09:25 this person and not focused on this person. That was the kind of a general standing rule that they
09:30 have just simply focused on every particular seat as an individual. And then that is not they have
09:37 offered whatever it is as a party, rather than focusing on one individual as a leader. So that
09:45 is I think that's smart. I think. Absolutely. Rajalakshmi, since this broadcast is going live
09:54 on YouTube and the viewers are also interacting as we speak. Shiva DJ, Ramajan Gujarat Congress,
10:06 Congress, and one gentleman Ashok Singh says, Rahul's Bharat Jodo Yatra
10:17 uste fayda hua hai. Now, this Bharat Jodo Yatra is also one key aspect. And obviously, after
10:24 Karnataka, Congress has been, you know, not failing to mention that it has been able to connect with
10:31 the masses. On one hand, we have the Bharat Jodo Yatra which started last December ended mid January
10:37 or even earlier last year. But one key aspect that the Congress also bears in mind and also
10:47 the voters of the country is that Prime Minister Modi, his popularity, his connect is also a lot,
10:54 you know, a big, big factor for BJP's success. Do you believe that somewhere down the line,
11:00 it has become that Modi's popularity is directly connected to the electoral outcomes? And the
11:07 second aspect that I want to know from you is the role of Bharat Jodo Yatra, both of them,
11:11 and our viewers are asking that. See, the BJP knows, and we all know that Narendra Modi ji is
11:21 definitely the biggest star campaigner for the BJP. And you know, he is such a big asset that he is,
11:27 he is the kind of connect that he has with the masses. Definitely, that is something that no
11:32 other leader can match up to. You know, in recent times, you can see that, you know, he has that
11:38 kind of a connect. And quite obviously, that is the reason why the BJP definitely uses Narendra
11:45 Modi ji as their star campaigner for, for most of the elections. So that is, that is quite
11:53 understandable. So it will be silly, I think, if somebody doesn't use their best asset. So,
12:01 and he has been picking on the right issues in all the states. So it's not just as if, you know,
12:08 he also talks about the achievements of the party on the national level and in the state. And also
12:16 at the same time, he picks on the issues of the particular state or as well. And obviously, you
12:21 know, he picks on the right issues. Now, now connecting it with Bharat Jodo Yatra, I agree
12:28 that that is a very, you know, it's an appreciable effort on the part of the Congress. So it's a
12:35 huge effort. I think in recent times, they have not really had that kind of an effort. So this
12:40 definitely is an appreciable effort. But at the same time, I think that the issues like say, Mr.
12:46 Adani, for example, I think that can backfire on the Congress because see in Rajasthan, for example,
12:54 in Rajasthan, when Ashok Yalurji, he talks about how Mr. Adani, he is a very appreciable factor,
13:02 and he has investments of 65,000 crores in the state. And then Mr. Rahul Gandhi,
13:09 when he picks on Adani as an issue, so you know, then the effect or the impact of the Bharat Jodo
13:15 Yatra, it's diluted by such kind of instances, where you can see that the national leadership
13:21 of the Congress is not on the same page as the state leadership. So then, you know, that kind
13:28 of an impact or that kind of a whatever could have been achieved from Bharat Jodo Yatra definitely
13:35 gets diluted by this kind of a disconnect. So I think that they could have actually done that in
13:41 a much better way. And they could have utilized it, or maybe, you know, they could have benefited
13:49 from it much better if they had picked on the right issues, if they could have maybe portrayed
13:55 themselves in a much better way. So I think that they lost out on a few key factors there. And
14:02 things like the Adani issue, for example, instead of actually helping them, I think that will
14:08 backfire. Even in Chhattisgarh, they are investing, I mean, Mr. Adani, investing in Chhattisgarh,
14:14 as well as in Rajasthan. So when Rampalli Gandhi talks about Adani as a bad person,
14:20 or as somebody who's eating away the people's opportunities,
14:24 He should watch his states.
14:25 Yes, absolutely.
14:28 Well, you know, that's, as they say that business and politics definitely go hand in hand,
14:33 irrespective of the fact, whoever is in power, they need the tacit support of the business
14:40 conglomerates and as you know, is being understood by the general public also. Rajalakshmi, one final
14:47 question before I let you go. Obviously, the sentiments are high and so are the states.
14:53 In your opinion, if you have to list out these four states, we will touch upon Mizoram tomorrow,
14:58 as a huge aspect of the neighboring state of Manipur, how the situation has been handled so
15:05 far, whether it will have an impact or not. But what is your assessment, if I may ask you,
15:10 the results, the ballpark figures for these five states, how do you see both parties working there?
15:15 See, the way I have assessed it on the terms of say, maybe the mathematics and the aspects,
15:25 the general issues that have been happening, and in the last few days, also, whatever was happening,
15:31 what I have assessed is that, you know, in Rajasthan, it looks as if the BJP is definitely
15:38 coming back in large numbers, that has been the trend. And that it's not and, you know, a party
15:45 will have to do something really drastic, in order for people to be able to change that trend. So I
15:51 don't see that the Congress has really been able to achieve that. So I feel that the BJP definitely
15:56 is coming back there in large numbers. And in Madhya Pradesh, I think that, you know, looking
16:03 at the huge heavy anti-incumbency, what I feel is the BJP will definitely come back, but maybe not
16:09 with so much of a margin. But say, my figures would be say around 120, 130, that would be my
16:18 figure around that. And in Chhattisgarh, I look at it as a very tight finish. So I'd see that it
16:25 could go either way. And maybe the Congress has a slight edge there. But then I think that in
16:32 Chhattisgarh, it's going to be a very tight call there. And in Telangana, I think that, you know,
16:40 again, the BRS, I feel has a little edge over there. And the Congress will do definitely much
16:48 better than what it has in the last few years. And I think even the BJP is definitely going to get a
16:56 much better hold and they're going to make inroads into Telangana, which was definitely lacking
17:03 over all these years. So this is how I look at it. Absolutely. Absolutely. Since, you know,
17:10 you mentioned Rajnath Meen Telangana, obviously, it doesn't look that it will be proving like a
17:16 West Bengal for BJP, where it did not come to power. But last time, the number of seats that
17:21 it gained, the vote share that it gained, unparalleled, I mean, a great improvement there.
17:27 How do you see Telangana, by the way, for the BJP? It tried to, you know, distance itself from
17:34 the KCR's government as politics would have it, you know, multi-pronged attack on both KCR and
17:41 Congress there. Making inroads into southern states very important for BJP.
17:49 Yes. So I think the BJP has kept itself away from the BRS as well as from,
17:54 I mean, the Congress, obviously they will not join hands with. So, you know, very clearly,
18:02 the prime minister has given this indication that Mr. KCR did offer a kind of alliance,
18:11 but I did not take it. So it's a very strong message saying that we are definitely not here in
18:18 alliance with anybody, contrary to what any of them keep saying about how KCR and BJP are in
18:26 some kind of an alliance. But in the days ahead, we can never say because in politics,
18:32 you can never say never in politics. But at the moment, I think keeping themselves away from
18:40 regional parties is what will help them making the inroads because otherwise they will keep,
18:46 definitely they will keep being dependent on the regional parties. So then that will not help them
18:53 make the inroads. So right now, even though they will not be able to get into power as such,
18:58 but at least the focus right now, I think is on the organization and on trying to make inroads
19:04 into the southern states. Rajan Shree, thank you so much for speaking to us. I know I took
19:11 more time than, you know, it was stipulated, but thank you so much. It's a busy day for you.
19:16 I understand. And always a pleasure. And your inputs definitely help our viewers to draw,
19:21 you know, conclusions and also get guided in which way. Thank you so much.
19:30 Thank you. Raj Lakshmin Joshi, the political analyst can be reached out.

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