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  • 9/19/2023
Right on cue the fires have been flaring this afternoon there's been an emergency alert for a fire on Tasmania’s east coast and there's a catastrophic warning still in place for the New South Wales far south coast region we'll get to the detail of that in a moment. But first after this El Nino declaration in the last few hours here's national weather reporter Tyne Logan explaining how El Nino works and what it means for Australia.

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Transcript
00:00 It's been back to back years of floods.
00:07 Now Australia is staring down the barrel of the other extreme.
00:12 After a long stretch of soaking wet weather under the La Niña climate pattern, we're
00:16 now facing an El Niño, a hugely influential factor in the world's climate, which has just
00:22 been declared for the first time in eight years.
00:26 In Australia, the natural phenomena brings hot, dry conditions, particularly in the eastern
00:32 states.
00:33 And it all comes down to a complex interaction between two systems, the ocean and the atmosphere.
00:41 In a normal year, trade winds blow relentlessly from east to west, pushing warm sea water
00:46 and moisture-rich winds toward the western side of the Pacific, in turn cooling the eastern
00:51 Pacific.
00:52 This provides a source of rainfall for Australia.
00:55 But during an El Niño, that pool of warm water and the tropical rainfall it helps create
01:00 is shifted away from Australia, with sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern
01:05 Pacific becoming unusually warm.
01:07 This also triggers a change in the atmosphere, weakening the trade winds, sometimes even
01:12 reversing them, and locking the event in until autumn next year.
01:17 The end result for Australia is less rain, as well as hotter temperatures, an increased
01:22 frost risk, reduced number of tropical cyclones and later onset to the monsoon in northern
01:28 Australia, and increased fire danger in south-east Australia.
01:35 Australia is yet to feel the effects of the current El Niño, and no two events are the
01:40 same.
01:41 Nor does it guarantee a dry outcome.
01:44 But current models indicate this year's event could be one of extreme magnitude.
01:50 Spring temperatures in the heart of El Niño territory are rising, already past the threshold
01:55 of 0.8 degrees, and are expected to rise even further by the end of the year, on par with
02:02 some of the worst El Niños in recorded history.
02:05 While that would have significant global impact, for Australia, a strong El Niño doesn't
02:10 always bring dire consequences.
02:12 It is still a way off before we know the full extent of what this event will bring, with
02:18 a peak during spring and summer.
02:21 Nevertheless, the message from authorities is to get ready for a dry few months ahead
02:26 regardless, with the broader climate outlooks tipping August to October, to be drier than
02:33 normal for much of Australia.
02:35 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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