美 대선 당선인 윤곽...한반도 외교안보에 어떤 영향?

Now we take a look at how the U.S. election could affect the Korean peninsula... namely issues regarding the denuclearization of North Korea and the South Korea-U.S. military alliance.
A change in administration at the White House could also have an effect on U.S.-China tensions.
Yoon Jung-min reports.
If Joe Biden becomes president, his four years in the Oval Office could change Washington's approach to the denuclearization talks with Pyeongyang.
"The Trump administration favors a top-down approach, including summits with Kim Jong-un, but a Biden administration would favor a bottom-up approach. Biden's approach could cause a backlash from North Korea, however, which wants sanctions to be lifted faster through summits."
The expert added that there's a possibility that Pyeongyang could express its dissatisfaction through military provocations, such as tests of ICBMs, should the denuclearization talks not be a pressing concern of Biden's because of the pandemic situation in the U.S.
On South Korea's alliance with the U.S., experts see Biden as taking a more conventional approach to the negotiations on defense cost-sharing and maintaining troop levels in South Korea.
"By that we mean, an approach that was very similar to how the relationship has been before Donald Trump. So all these outstanding bilateral alliance-related issues are going to be handled very methodically and carefully and it's not going to be as forceful as it's been over the last four years."
When it comes to transferring wartime operational control from Washington to Seoul, there might still be stringent conditions in terms of South Korea's readiness.
"There wouldn't be a great difference on that issue, whether it be Trump or Biden. It's conditions-based. Seoul and Washington were supposed to verify the full operational capability this August, but couldn't do enough due to COVID-19. So it's inevitable that the schedule is delayed."
Also, South Korea could be asked to make its stance clearer when it comes to the U.S.-China tensions.
Experts say Biden could look for an opportunity for cooperation with Beijing, but ultimately, he sees China as a competitor, and so do U.S. politicians.
"This China issue is a bipartisan issue in the U.S. Congress. What that means is no matter who takes office of majority, in either the House or the Senate, (...)they are going to have legislations that are very similar that is going to be pressuring China on many fronts."
The expert added that if Biden wins, his approach to China would largely depend on his new foreign policy team, and on how China handles the issues of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang.
Yoon Jung-min, Arirang News.