Texas vs. Seattle: Analyzing deGrom-Evans Pitching Match-up

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00:00it's texas it's seattle's de grom versus evans that on paper is a pitching mismatch here let's

00:05take a look at the opening numbers 140s to 145s you take a look at today as high as 150 which is

00:11showing up at bet mgm but primarily tom minus 145 let's call it as a favorite towards the road team

00:16the texas rangers you look at the total this one no surprise anytime we get those team mobile games

00:21here with at least one decent pitcher you're gonna get lower totals seven and a half across

00:25the board de grom evans that's the rangers and the mariners tom what do we got uh i think we're

00:30looking at an under and based on the pitching differential the pissing pitching mismatch as

00:35you said i think there's a pretty yes short number on the rangers i i don't think it's heavy enough

00:39like you could tell me that the rangers were a little bit heavier and i still still would be

00:44still will be willing to buy into them at the range of minus 144 there's no doubt that the mariners

00:49lineup is significantly better than it was a week two weeks ago whatever it is with the additions

00:53with nailer and suarez specifically but i see this as an under i see it as an under from the jump

00:57i honestly would be looking to take some in-game unders if we see this number continue to creep

01:02down to six and a half whatever it might be de grom has been fantastic logan evans is a pitcher

01:06that i just have no interest in a 17.9 strike out rate overall in the season a four five eight

01:12extra donny isn't that bad but he's also not a pitcher that i'd be willing to back at this price

01:16point if we got a longer number on the mariners that's a different story because i'm not expecting

01:20their lineup to come through against the grom so i would need a greater number on the mariners to get

01:25to the rangers bullpen when it's all said and done let me ask you a question here like off topic

01:29i've done this multiple times in the past few weeks and i don't know why pitching mismatch gets word

01:36associated with something else tom i and i know you stumble i i've done it multiple times i've never

01:42done it before but i've just started it over like the past 45 days and i can't help myself because

01:46even when i was saying pitching mismatch i'm telling you it's 50 50 that it comes out another

01:52way i don't know why honestly brain cramp i don't know i might just i'm just gonna go i can't think

01:58about that now so i'm just gonna say pitching and just pitching discrepancy um and pitching

02:04advantage we just have to completely get rid of that word and move on i'm telling you like i have to

02:09struggle like i get brain freeze now i have to slow down when i say that because it's 50 if it comes

02:14out another way at this point but back to that game itself like the ground by far is the better

02:17pitcher here 41 and a third innings pitched over the past 45 days at 327 era which again isn't bad

02:23it was actually lower than that if you just go like past 60 days but a 2.93 x5 number which is the

02:27number that we love to look at much better like i look at the number four pitching prospect here in

02:32the ground with x5 going up against the 29th pitching prop expectations here on logan evans so if i

02:38focus let's just say on that texas rangers lineup josh smith corey seager wyatt langford rowdy

02:44tellez over the past 30 days all make sense here and look at logan evans's numbers his last 89

02:48batters he's faced tom a 231 iso against and a 416 weighted on base percentage you take a look also

02:54at the hard hit contact rate did you know 72 that means three quarters of the batters that make

03:00contact it's hard percentage barrel rate 13 if we just take a look at the right-handed batters

03:05themselves it's 16 over the past 30 days rangers for me do i love the price point of the mariners

03:11tough they're on the road i get it but it just seems like the rangers for me in this game tom

03:15it really does and logan evans i think has been kind of thrust into a role that i don't want to

03:22say he was unprepared for but it's just based on the injuries that seattle has you know last year

03:27he was in double a right and then this year he was in triple a and only pitched 41 innings in

03:32triple a and has kind of been just shoved into the rotation because the injuries that the mariners have

03:37overall where george kirby didn't start the year then they lost logan gilbertson they needed to

03:41bring him up i don't think he's ready to be a major league pitcher that's it's really what it comes

03:45down to let me ask you this question too 71 degree temperatures in seattle that's a balmy day there

03:52right late winds blowing out the center field not gonna have really any impact you take a look at

03:56jacob de grom's last start which is was in los angeles on the 28th five and a third innings pitched

04:00five earned runs seven hits two home runs given up in that by the way he's on a streak right now tom

04:06one two three four five straight games with at least one home run and of those five games two of

04:12those he allowed two home runs the reason i bring this up is we see the seven and a half as a total

04:16we already know we're getting a question of performance at least we think out of seattle

04:19a rosarana cal raleigh julio rodriguez eugenio suarez jorge polanco cole young all very good

04:26statistics against righties could this be a game where you just take a flyer and say what do you really

04:31need three out of seattle in this game and you probably have yourself an over are we getting a

04:35discount price at seven and a half today just because the grom is the name right now

04:39you you might be the only issue with the grom and maybe it is the three from the mirrors like

04:46my feeling on the grom is like yeah he may give up those home runs but they're not going to be big

04:50home runs it'll be like a couple solo shots so you need the mariners this week across another run

04:55against the rangers bullpen hope the game's three to three four four and then you know you have your

05:00automatic win at that point you're right about that because if you take a look at that game on the

05:04first of the month he gave up a home run time but only two earned runs next game after i gave up a

05:07home run only three earned runs next game after that two home runs given up but only two earned

05:12runs given up there and then that start before that los angeles game one home run that was the

05:16only run he gave up actually over six innings so there's something to you're not leaking oil by

05:21giving up three run home runs you give up two of those that's six runs and away you go in a loss

05:25at that point so something to keep an eye on but sometimes i do get intrigued tom when i look at

05:28these two rosters and say oh is there a chance we get eight today i really do yeah based on the

05:34talent alone if you remove the pitchers you can say okay the park's not great overall for hitting

05:39but the talent alone on these rosters should give us run scoring expectation

05:43you

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