00:00So Taiwan's recall law has four stages, but to actually remove a lawmaker from the legislature, it's three stages.
00:07So the first two stages are gathering signatures.
00:10In the first stage, recall campaigners need to get about 1% of a lawmaker's district's people to sign on to the petition.
00:18In the second stage, it's 10%.
00:21And then if they're able to get 10% of those signatures or get the correct numbers, they move on to stage three, which is where we're at today.
00:29Now, this is the vote that will determine what happens to that legislative seat.
00:33And like we said at the beginning of the show, there are two possible selections for voters who go in.
00:39It's either I agree to recall this lawmaker or I disagree.
00:43But not only do they have to agrees have to outnumber disagrees, but 25% of the lawmakers' constituency must vote in favor of recalling them in order for them to be considered recalled.
00:56Let's look at some magic numbers.
00:57Let me give you an idea of what Taiwan's legislature looks like.
01:01113 seats in total.
01:03Let's take a look at what the opposition looks like.
01:05The opposition holds 62 seats.
01:08The main opposition, Kuomintang, they have 52.
01:1124 of their seats are up for contest tonight.
01:14And then there's the smaller opposition, Taiwan People's Party, which has aligned itself with the KMT during these past few legislative sessions.
01:21Then there are two independent lawmakers that regularly vote with the opposition coalition as well.
01:27Let's see what the DPP has.
01:28Anything that's not part of that 62 is what the DPP has.
01:32And what the DPP needs to do at a minimum to flip the legislature is gain six seats.
01:38So not only do six Kuomintang lawmakers need to get recalled today, but if they get recalled, moving on in the fourth stage, where the by-elections are, the DPP needs to pick up those seats.
01:49That brings me to my second magic number, which is 12.
01:53And this is going to have a more immediate effect on the legislature in the short term.
01:58Because what happens is, when, if lawmakers are recalled, the CEC needs to post the results within seven days of the recall happening.
02:06And then after they post the result, within three months, the by-election needs to happen.
02:11But when the CEC posts the results, those legislators are out of the legislature.
02:18So what would happen is 62, if the KMT loses 12, the opposition goes down to 50.
02:23The DPP has 51.
02:25That is a majority in a smaller legislature, at least in the short term, until the by-elections.
