Market thinks rate cut likely for August, despite other uncertainties

Interest rates look set to be cut at the next reserve bank board meeting, but we've heard that before.

Transcript

00:00Death and taxes aren't the only certain things.

00:05There's also Reserve Bank Governors backing their previous decisions.

00:10Michelle Bullock today said the central bank's measured approach of lifting interest rates

00:14slowly and to a lower peak than overseas bodies did, did the job right.

00:20When you look at the previous times we've brought inflation down, the orange up top,

00:24it's led to a much bigger rise in unemployment, the blue, than it did this time.

00:29The bank held interest rates steady at its July meeting, which was a shock.

00:34And then there was a surprising lift in unemployment.

00:37However, Ms Bullock doesn't think that the RBA would have changed its mind in July,

00:41even with the jobs data.

00:44The market thinks a rate cut is near certain at the RBA's next meeting in August,

00:49but then again they thought that last time too.

00:53Global markets lifted, Japan pumped by the potential of a tariff truce,

00:58and locally it's almost ASX profit reporting season, which is when listed companies release

01:03their half yearly results.

01:05Some get in early, usually the ones seeking forgiveness, like Autobahn owner BAPCOR and

01:11Big Bank Macquarie.

01:13Rare Earth's minor Linus doing better.

01:15The Aussie dollar is now at its highest point all year, moving around, but essentially four

01:21US cents more than it was in January, six cents more than when the tariff turmoil cratered markets

01:26in April.

01:28Oil prices lower, gold too, as the tariff eruptions continue.

01:32Turns out there's not many certainties.

01:36And that's finance.