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Report
Local market reacts to Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision
ABC NEWS (Australia)
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4/1/2025
The Australian dollar had an up-and-down day on the back of the Reserve Bank of Australia's move to keep interest rates on hold.
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00:00
Well, the market odds of a rate cut today were not zero yesterday, but 18 per cent.
00:07
So a few punters were tearing up their betting slips this afternoon and buying dollars.
00:11
However, the Aussie fell because the words around today's inaction raised the odds of
00:17
a cut in May.
00:18
Also, the ABS reported retail sales for February this morning came in slightly below expectations.
00:24
For the year to February, retail trade rose 3.6 per cent.
00:28
But what this graph tells you is that it's entirely due to rising prices and population.
00:33
We're each buying no more stuff than we were five years ago.
00:37
As for house prices, that fall of half a per cent between October and January is now history.
00:42
The national median is back at a new record high.
00:46
So in the matter of improving housing affordability, that was it.
00:51
As a multiple of average weekly earnings, the national median house price is not quite
00:55
back to the 2022 record high of 14.6 times because wages have been rising.
01:01
But it's not far off, 14.2, well over double the average of the whole 20th century.
01:08
The US share market recovered a bit last night, but investors are cats on a hot tin roof awaiting
01:13
Donald Trump's big tariff reveal tomorrow.
01:16
US CEO confidence has suffered its second biggest fall in history, second to the GFC.
01:21
And as you can see from the chart, the emotions of American bosses tend to be correlated with
01:27
national GDP.
01:28
The local market popped up nearly 1 per cent, with the big miners and banks attracting buyers.
01:33
And gold has gone above $5,000 Australian for the first time ever, with safe havens
01:39
looking more appealing every day.
01:41
Also, oil jumped 3.5 per cent after a thought bubbled out of President Trump that he might
01:46
curtail shipments of Russian crude.
01:50
And that's finance.
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