Giants vs. Blue Jays: Will Over 8.5 Runs Cash Against Verlander?

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00:00The Jays start their second half at home as a favorite in the six

00:04against Justin Verlander and the San Francisco Giants.

00:07Chris Bassett gets the nod on the other side for Toronto.

00:11Eight and a half is that total.

00:12What's the play of the IRS today in the six?

00:15They probably should expect runs on the eight and a half.

00:17Why is that?

00:17The past 60 days, look at these two pitchers.

00:19Chris Bassett's got a one-on-one XFIP minus,

00:21which is right about average.

00:22But look at that ERA, Ben, at a 5.01 and an XFIP number of 4.16.

00:26You go down to Justin Verlander, a 115 XFIP minus, which is elevated.

00:31And then you take a look at a 5.34 ERA over the past 60 days

00:34and a 4.68 XFIP number.

00:36If you look at Bassett, he's a right-handed pitcher.

00:38You know what?

00:38He's been sensational against right-handed batters for most of the season,

00:42particularly in the power categories.

00:44But he does leak a little bit against lefties.

00:46Anticipated lineup today for the San Francisco Giants.

00:48It's not great.

00:49But we're spec to having five lefties as opposed to going with like two or three,

00:53which you may see in some lineups, which is a positive.

00:55The Toronto lineup past 30 days have been absolutely on fire

01:00against hitting right-handed pitching.

01:01And Verlander has really struggled over the past 30 days with left-handed batters.

01:06Now, here's the issue.

01:06You take a look at Luke, Seth's a lefty, Barger's a lefty,

01:09Wagner's a lefty, and Loperfito's a lefty.

01:11Five right-handed batters.

01:13But sometimes you just look at that and say, they don't strike out.

01:16Verlander's not that giant strikeout pitcher that he was once in his career.

01:19So if I look at both sides and say, these pitchers can be had, yes.

01:22But also, taking that with a grain of salt, saying, do we know the hitter's timing will

01:26be back right away?

01:27Because typically coming out of spring training, the pitchers are ahead of the hitters because

01:31they just haven't seen that good and that sharp of live pitching.

01:35You get through that in April, May, and then the hitters start to round form once you get

01:38the warmer temperatures.

01:3972 degrees north of the border.

01:41But I got to tell you, if I'm just going straight off numbers, Ben, I'm going over today

01:44in this game.

01:45I am.