NL Cy Young Race Heats Up: Wheeler Overtakes Skeens

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00:00Let's go to the National League Cy Young market where earlier in the week Paul Skeens was a slight

00:05minus money favorite in front of the Phillies ace Zach Wheeler Donnie and I had discussed that

00:10Wheeler would probably be in some of those more significant stages in the second half of the year

00:15might he start to overtake Paul Skeens if the numbers remain pretty consistent for both guys

00:22and now after a straw poll in the last 24 36 hours or so around MLB the people said Wheeler

00:29should win the National League Cy Young award Zach Wheeler now the favorite at minus 140 moving

00:35past Skeens in his second season Derek how do you evaluate the National League Cy Young race at this

00:40time I would have Wheeler and Skeens pretty close Skeens I would give the slight edge right now

00:47but the guy I have interest in is Logan Webb he has been almost as good as Wheeler and Skeens this year

00:54you look at his war at fan graphs it's like a quarter of a win difference between the two

00:58Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in terms of his wins this year in terms of his ERA the stuff

01:03that the voters look at he's on a team that is a slight favorite to make the playoffs and he has

01:10better durability than certainly than Skeens but I would argue more than Wheeler as well he's thrown

01:16more innings than either of these guys and I mean there's always a chance in the second half of the

01:22year that somebody gets hurt but Webb I think has the better track record of staying healthy

01:26at 20 to 1 odds I make him much closer to Wheeler and Skeens than that yeah those top three guys

01:33there Derek certainly worthy of looking at for the Cy Young but on a day-to-day basis when you're

01:37trying to analyze pitching matchups and what pitchers you like what are some of the statistics

01:41that you generally look at is it xvip xvip minus here like what goes into it Sierra ratings when you

01:46look at a pitcher on a day and say you know what I really like this guy give us some terminology that

01:50you like to use yeah I mean the main thing I'm looking at is is a projection specifically my

01:56projections but that's going to account for any number of things it's going to account for all

02:00of those underlying peripherals the strikeout rate and walk rate that goes into Sierra or xvip

02:05it's going to account for his velocity and spin rate and that kind of thing and the most important

02:10thing I think is matchup you have to account for the context of who he's facing that day what is the

02:15opposing offense how do they match up against him what ballpark is he in what's the weather who's the

02:20umpire how does the defense around him um you know line up the catcher pitch framing all that kind of

02:25stuff um so really you want to account for the context more than anything else and that bat x

02:31projection that Derek Carty created is really good stuff to start your major league baseball handicapping

02:37and getting ready for a new slate I would assume the analytics of the rookie hurler for the Milwaukee

02:43Brewers are pretty great as well this year Derek on Big Miz Jacob Mizorowski who out

02:49dueled Clayton Kershaw earlier this week despite allowing a solo leadoff home run to Shohei Ohtani

02:56as we go from the NL Cy Young to the National League rookie of the year odds Big Miz for the

03:02Brew Crew a minus 230 price now to win that National League rookie of the year as we get ready for the

03:08second half following the all-star break is it Jacob Mizorowski's award to lose in the National League

03:14I mean you have to consider him the favorite right now but a minus 230 or minus 250 price

03:21is insane I mean nobody can be that big of a favorite at this point especially a young pitcher

03:26who we don't know if they're going to cap his innings we don't know if he's going to get hurt I mean a guy

03:31that throws that hard obviously is is a huge wild card so minus 250 for him I will not buy into

03:37I will take Chase Burns at plus 3,000 he projects I mean he he profiles very to Mizorowski they came

03:47up to the bigs around the same time both high stuff guys Burns actually has the better control and

03:52command than Mizorowski does I don't understand the huge price gap here I know the results so far

03:59have been better for Mizorowski but we still have a lot of baseball left to play and especially with

04:04pitchers especially young pitchers injuries are always a possibility and so if you're going to

04:09give me that kind of a gap between the two of them give me Burns

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