00:00All right, let's get more on all of this with Marco Forgioni, the Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade in London.
00:08Hello, Marco. You know, it's a constant moving target.
00:12Let's just go back to what happened on Tuesday with the copper price, where Donald Trump said he was intending a 50% tariff.
00:21Initially, there was a big jolt. Where is it today, though?
00:25It's sort of stabilized because, as we were just hearing, there's been a great deal of stockpiling because there was a massive signal that this was likely to happen months ago.
00:37So the markets have been relatively muted in their response this time around compared to what happened when the so-called Liberation Day announcements were made.
00:47I think the bigger issue, particularly for the U.K., is around the impact of the announcement around pharma, which is a much more significant and important sectoral industry for the U.K., particularly in its trade with the U.S.
01:01But all of this, Sally, is just another iteration of President Trump's very muscular attempt to unpick the global multilateral system and secure that America-first agenda and drive investment back into the U.S.
01:17And certainly with pharma, it does seem that a lot of big drug companies are moving in that direction.
01:23But if he does go ahead with these massive increase in tariffs, which would be breaking deals that have been made and significant agreements around exempting pharmaceuticals, what sort of impact would that have?
01:38Which countries are going to suffer the most?
01:39Well, I think the first point to make is that the administration in Washington is somewhat unconcerned by any deals or arrangements that were put in place prior to this new administration.
01:53And they are very determined to create bilateral agreements and arrangements.
01:58And the pharma tariffs will impact the U.K., will impact the EU, but will also impact key trading nations like India.
02:06So this is a powerful play by the U.S. to attack the pharma industry and look very much to drive that innovation, to drive that investment, to drive the manufacturing into the U.S.
02:21to establish a leading role in the global pharma sector.
02:25So the long-term impacts of this are to be seen.
02:31I think the things we need to apply is that this is all about negotiation and trying to secure a deal and secure the best interests of the U.S.
02:41And we need to look also, Sally, at what's happening to the U.S. economy.
02:46The administration has been celebrating the fact that their estimate is that the tariffs have so far raised over 100 billion for the U.S. economy.
02:56Their projections are over 300 billion by the end of the year.
02:59And we haven't seen that spike in inflation that was anticipated when the first round of tariffs was announced.
03:06That's a good point you make, you know, and you speak about the fact that these tariffs, potentially these high tariffs that are announced initially, are a bit of a negotiating tactic.
03:15But it's in a very uncertain environment.
03:18So how does that uncertainty affect the broader economic issues, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, not only in the U.S., but beyond?
03:26We're seeing it's already having an impact, and particularly with regards to investment decisions.
03:32You know, businesses want stability and certainty.
03:35And what we've got is a very unstable environment driven by the administration in the U.S.
03:41And they're looking to take advantage of that.
03:42They are looking to encourage businesses to set up in the U.S.
03:47and force nations to ensure that they trade with the U.S.
03:52but on terms that are beneficial to the U.S.
03:54This is a really significant plan that is being made by the administration, as I've said, to very deliberately unpick the global multilateral system
04:04and establish the primacy of the U.S., not just as a marketplace, but as a manufacturing powerhouse.
04:12Thank you so much for your time, Marco Forgioni, the Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade in London.
