00:00The Mets were 45-24 on June 12th, the best record in Major League Baseball.
00:06From that point on to end out the month, 3-13.
00:11Can they find their way back to the win column today as an ever-so-slight home favorite against the Brew Crew?
00:17Total is 8.5. It's a minus 124 price now on the money line.
00:23How does this series begin on a Tuesday now in July?
00:26Will the calendar flipping be a good sign for New York?
00:30Hopefully it is. Just a fresh beginning and a fresh start here in the month of July.
00:34Because they need some wins here. The Philadelphia Phillies continue to play good baseball here.
00:38Outside of that outlandish, terrible streak at the plate, they picked up a couple wins.
00:42Now sit two games above the New York Mets in the win column there for first place.
00:46If we are looking at Clay Holmes on the mound, the one thing, he's had a decent season overall.
00:50He comes in, let's just say the last 45 days in Major League Baseball.
00:53A 103 XFIP minus number, which is average, a 4.34, excuse me, a, hold on, I read the wrong one there.
00:592.75 ERA, which is really good. But that XFIP number, Ben, is a little bit high.
01:04The XFIP minus number, slightly above average at a 112 here.
01:08Here's the issue. Clay Holmes has really been struggling with left-handed batters.
01:11So the first thing I look at, which left-handed batter do I always like in that lineup tonight for the Milwaukee Brewers?
01:16It's Kristen Yellich.
01:17A 2.54 ISO power number, a 4.43 weighted on base percentage over his last 65 at-bats over the past month against right-handed pitchers, which Clay Holmes is.
01:26And also, if you go down that lineup there, Isaac Collins, who is a switch hitter, hold back from the left-hand side tonight.
01:30His last 59 at-bats, Ben, as they weighted on base percentage of 3.82 against right-handed pitchers.
01:36The one thing I have to say is, every day, typically, that middle of that order always looks really good for the New York Mets.
01:41Freddy Peralta on the mound, his last 45 days, a 1.01 XFIP minus.
01:46He's been averaging ERA decent at 3.19, that XFIP number of 410.
01:51Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, all with really good numbers against right-handed pitchers.
01:56But you take a look at Freddy Peralta's last 113 batter's face.
01:59He's got a 176 ISO against, which is slightly elevated, but only a 2.90 weighted on base percentage and a decent K rate.
02:05I'm sorry.
02:06Like, right now, you just can't say, sooner than later, the Mets are going to bust out.
02:10The Brewers playing good baseball.
02:12I'd take them at home again tonight.
02:13But more than importantly, my favorite play, probably a Christian Yelich RBI once again tonight.
