- 6/30/2025
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00:00But DRS, some big news around Major League Baseball
00:03in terms of those changing markets in MLB for the MVPs.
00:08Both Aaron Judge and now especially in the National League,
00:11Shohei Ohtani have taken an incredibly firm grasp
00:15on these award markets.
00:17Ohtani now minus 2,100.
00:22Not all that long ago.
00:24Back about a month and a half ago,
00:25Ohtani was a minus money favorite,
00:28but minus 150, minus 175.
00:30We told you then, get in while the getting is good
00:33before he goes back to the bump.
00:35Ohtani back on the mound for the Dodgers.
00:38Dealt over the weekend, touching triple digits multiple times.
00:41Shohei Ohtani now minus 2,100
00:44to win his second consecutive National League MVP award.
00:48Yeah, and he should be priced that much.
00:50And that number, again, is only going to go higher.
00:52We've seen unbelievable jumps over the past week here on that.
00:55It will continue to jump higher as he pitches.
00:57And the question Tom Vecchio and myself were posing on Pro Baseball today,
01:00which I don't believe, like, he's going to come back and pitch.
01:02I'm like, oh, well, if he comes back and pitches six innings,
01:05he'll have four earned runs.
01:06That's going to knock down his MVP odds.
01:08Like, no, he is a pitcher in Major League Baseball being one of the best,
01:11if not the best, hitters in baseball.
01:13It doesn't matter what his ERA is, what his strikeout numbers are.
01:16If he's a starting pitcher and the best hitter in baseball,
01:19he is a walkaway victory.
01:20The only way Shohei Ohtani does not win MVP
01:23if he gets injured in the next week
01:26and doesn't play the rest of the Major League Baseball season.
01:29Like, Juan Soto, great season, not winning it.
01:31Like, and we talked about, like, Pete Crow Armstrong, great player.
01:34Pete Crow Armstrong is not beating Shohei Ohtani in the NDP race.
01:38That minus 2,100, we will talk about this throughout the summer.
01:41Could have got it at minus 2,100 now.
01:43Could have got it at minus 2,800.
01:44Could have got it at minus 4,000.
01:46Could have got it at minus 10,000.
01:47And they're all going to be valued depending on which way I like to wager.
01:50Now, nobody's going to take those wagers
01:52because you're not going to tie up $2,100 to win $100.
01:55But right now, minus 2,100, feels like a steal again.
01:58It does.
02:00Two innings of work, DRS, at Kauffman Stadium
02:03against the Royals on Saturday.
02:04Actually, the Dodgers' lone loss of the weekend.
02:07Again, first two starts, just an inning.
02:09Saturday, just two innings.
02:11But again, after shoulder surgery,
02:13where he did not pitch at all in 2024,
02:15101.7, the fastest pitch for Otani on Saturday,
02:20the fastest pitch clocked in his career so far.
02:24In the other awards market, Aaron Judge, minus 14.50.
02:29Why?
02:30Judge hit multiple home runs yesterday for the Yanks
02:33as they absolutely hammered Luis Severino and the A's.
02:36That's a kind of funny story.
02:3712 to 5 yesterday at Yankee Stadium.
02:40Two homers for Aaron Judge.
02:42Now 30 this year, tightening the gap against Big Dumper
02:46in the home run race.
02:47That's Cal Raleigh and DRS yesterday,
02:50snapping a 16-game streak for the Yankees
02:53of playing to the under with the 12-5 victory
02:56over the Athletics yesterday.
02:58About time.
02:59They got hammered on Saturday as well.
03:00But you take a look, Ben.
03:01Remember, we were messing around.
03:02Like, hey, why don't you just parlay these two MVPs?
03:05Judge, you know, time is like minus 300.
03:06Try to do that today.
03:07It's minus 835 here on the FanDuel Sportsbook to do that.
03:11So, again, Cal Raleigh, love him.
03:14You're going to hit 70 home runs, break Bonza's record, whatever.
03:16You'll be in the race.
03:17If you don't, you're not in the race.
03:18Bobby Witt, you're not in the race.
03:19Jose Ramirez, Jeremy.
03:20We're just adding names in there to add names.
03:22But theoretically, it should just be like,
03:24what price do you want to bet?
03:25Judge and just give me a field price at this point,
03:28which is going to be ridiculous anyway.
03:30The final day in the month of June
03:33in an eight-game Major League Baseball slate
03:35to show for it.
03:36A big week, of course, in baseball.
03:39The 4th of July on Friday.
03:41That should be a full Friday slate around the bigs.
03:44But all eight games today for the brilliant baseball mind
03:47that is Donnie Wright's side.
03:49We break down for you here on TEL.
03:53All right, DRS, let's start in Philadelphia at the bank.
03:56The Phillies return home after taking the weekend
03:58in Atlanta against the Braves.
04:01And now they get ready to welcome in the San Diego Padres.
04:04Really hefty price in favor of Philly.
04:07Greater than two Bills, minus 215.
04:10Because Zach Wheeler is on the mound tonight.
04:12Over-understands at nine.
04:14Is Philly deserving of being such a strong favorite
04:18with Wheeler on the bump against San Diego?
04:21Yes, they are.
04:21And also waiting to see if Bryce Harper is going to return tonight.
04:24But the expectations were once that Atlanta series was done,
04:26it's on a night-to-night basis whether he's going to return
04:29from that injury here to his wrist.
04:31Now, the updates to that, it is still a little bit stiff,
04:33but there's no pain left in there, which is the good spot.
04:35So it's just a matter of, I guess, him getting back into the lineup,
04:37which the expectations could be again.
04:39He could be back tonight, and that could be a big lift here.
04:41Let's understand this.
04:42This is a massive, a massive pitching mismatch tonight
04:45between Waldron heading in there against Zach Wheeler.
04:48That's why I have the heavy favorite.
04:49But also, understand this.
04:51You can be as heavy favorite as you want.
04:52Look at the starting pitching that the Phillies have got,
04:54basically just the last week and a half,
04:56and how dominant it's been.
04:58If you only score one to two runs a game,
05:00it doesn't matter who your starting pitcher is
05:01because the other team just has to scrape out
05:03two or three to be in this ballgame.
05:05So a runaway victory for the Philadelphia Phillies,
05:07I don't think is in the cards.
05:08But understand this as well.
05:10Whether or not Bryce Harper's back into the lineup,
05:12the Phillies still should hit Matt Waldron.
05:14Like, you take a look.
05:15He hasn't pitched in Major League Baseball this season.
05:17He's not a very good pitcher to begin with.
05:19And his minor league pitching here,
05:20eight starts in the minors, a 5.04 ERA,
05:25which also means he was in between AAA, AA,
05:28and rookie ball putting up those stats.
05:31And sometimes say, okay, he's back in full,
05:33put him up in the majors.
05:34His last start, two and two-thirds innings pitched
05:39in his last minor league start,
05:41five earned runs, and he gave up a home run.
05:42So it's not as if he's coming up like,
05:44hey, four straight starts,
05:44didn't give up a run in the minors.
05:46He got torched in his last start.
05:48Then you go into Philadelphia.
05:49Wind blowing out the center field.
05:51Muggy conditions his first pitch of 85-plus degrees.
05:54The Phillies should win this game.
05:56Do I love the minus 215?
05:57No, I don't.
05:58Do I love the Phillies' offense right now?
06:00No, I don't.
06:00But pedigree pitchers,
06:02I worry about against the Phillies.
06:04Waldron is not a pedigree pitcher.
06:05They should hit him tonight.
06:07A team total should be in place.
06:08And if you're looking for maybe a parlay piece,
06:10I would be really surprised
06:11if the Phillies lost that ball game today
06:13against the Pods.
06:15Yeah, you're looking at that number, DRS,
06:18and that is certainly the expectation.
06:20Now let's talk about San Diego.
06:21Of course, got off to an incredible start this year.
06:24Started 11-0 or 12-0 at home inside Petco.
06:28Midway through May, 12 games above .500.
06:31In fact, on May 14th, DRS, 27-15.
06:35That was the mark for the Padres.
06:37Since that point, now finishing out the month of June,
06:4019-23.
06:42Not abysmal.
06:43They haven't fallen flat on their face.
06:45But if the season ended today,
06:47San Diego would not be a playoff team
06:49in the National League.
06:51In fact, the Padres trail the Dodgers
06:53by seven games now in the National League West.
06:56And the San Francisco Giants
06:58are seven and a half back.
07:00There was a time just about a month or so ago
07:03that was a really tight race atop the NL West.
07:06The Dodgers have been playing sensationally,
07:0953-32.
07:11Best record in the NL.
07:12Tied for the best mark in MLB alongside Detroit.
07:15The Padres and the Giants
07:16have been floundering ever so sightly.
07:19In fact, the Giants,
07:20something you can't really have happen, DRS,
07:22lost the weekend against the Chicago White Sox.
07:26On the road on the south side,
07:28they lost their final two games
07:29to drop the three-game set.
07:31It's the offense that's been an issue for the Giants.
07:34We're also swept in the midweek by Miami.
07:36The Marlins, the hottest team in baseball.
07:38They have won seven in a row.
07:40Something you also really can't have happen,
07:42being swept by the Marlins.
07:44The last two teams to fall to that,
07:46the Giants and the D-backs,
07:48who were swept by Miami in Phoenix at home this weekend.
07:53So who bounces back this week
07:55between the divisional foes?
07:57We'll find out starting tonight in Arizona.
08:00Out in the desert,
08:01the D-backs playing host of the Giants,
08:03but with Logan Webb on the bump for SF,
08:05the Giants booked as a road favorite.
08:08Now minus 138, that number.
08:10Total remains at eight.
08:11What's the play in the desert duel?
08:13Yeah, San Francisco should handle their business.
08:15Again, both of these teams technically struggling here,
08:17but Arizona does have a very good offense.
08:19But Logan Webb's on the mound tonight.
08:21Last 30 days, Ben, he's got a 1.17.
08:23It's going to be 1.18 ERA, which is fantastic.
08:26Can you take a look at his XFIP number here?
08:28A 66.
08:29That's tremendous.
08:30This 100 is the baseline.
08:31He's at 66.
08:32His last 132 batters that he faced.
08:35How about a K rate, Ben, of close to 28%?
08:38How about an ISO power number of 105?
08:40A weighted on base percentage of 257.
08:42He's been elite this entire season.
08:44So if you go on the other side and say,
08:45well, Donnie, I really don't like
08:47that San Francisco Giants lineup.
08:48Neither do I.
08:49Raphael Devers has to kick it in gear.
08:51That team has to start the hit
08:52if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs.
08:54But today, Ryan Nelson is on the mound.
08:56His last 30 days, a 3.57 ERA.
08:58You go, ooh, that's really good.
09:00His XFIP number, though, 4.90.
09:03His XFIP minus now is a 121.
09:05So I just told you in that analytical market, right?
09:08Logan Webb is a 66 at an analytical number
09:10for that XFIP minus.
09:11Ryan Nelson, 121.
09:13Massive pitching mismatch,
09:14the same way as we just talked about
09:16the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Padres here.
09:18You go with the pitching,
09:19and the pitching there is with San Francisco tonight.
09:22Yeah, it certainly is, DRS.
09:24Let's go elsewhere to Pittsburgh.
09:25Another divisional duel starting this week
09:28between the Pirates and the Cardinals.
09:30Both teams pulling off a sweep over the weekend.
09:33The Red Hot Redbirds sweeping the Cleveland Guardians.
09:36The Pirates, surprisingly so, I guess,
09:39sweeping the New York Mets at home
09:41and outscoring the Amazons 3-4.
09:44A dead-even pick-em now on the FanDuel Sportsbook
09:47for the opening game of this midweek set
09:49between the Cards and the Buccos.
09:51Minus 108 on both sides.
09:53Total 8.5.
09:54How does the series start tonight, DRS in Pittsburgh?
09:58Don't love either one of these pitchers.
09:59Don't love either one of these lineups.
10:01So let's take a look, though.
10:02Like, that Pirates lineup has woken up,
10:04and sometimes you're just going to ride the hot can.
10:06They're at home tonight, 80-degree temperatures.
10:08There is some rain in the forecast,
10:09but a wind that's blowing really from right foul pole
10:11to left foul pole won't have that big of a difference
10:13at only 5 to 6 miles per hour.
10:15Looking at both of these starting pitchers,
10:17you look at Andrew Heaney, his last 30 days.
10:19How about an ERA ban of a 7, an XFIP number of a 4.63,
10:24and an XFIP minus of a 114.
10:26All above average.
10:27Eric Fetty is my worst pitcher on the card.
10:30His last 30 days, a 4.62 XFIP number,
10:34a 130 XFIP minus, and an XFIP 5.29 ERA 4.62.
10:39Stop the madness.
10:40Might just take it over tonight out there, huh?
10:42How about that?
10:43Come on!
10:44Nine runs inside PNC Park.
10:47Come on!
10:47Let's get it!
10:48More MLB breakdowns next.
10:50Up north we go as we continue our preview
10:53of our eight-game slate on this Monday
10:55in Major League Baseball.
10:57The final day in June, July on the horizon
11:00with a full Tuesday slate in the bigs.
11:04But tonight, DRS up in Toronto.
11:06Start number three of the year for Max Scherzer,
11:10of course, returned last week for the first time
11:12since early March, or late March,
11:14but early in the season, he was okay.
11:18Tonight, the Blue Jays take on the New York Yankees.
11:21Carlos Rodon has been great this year
11:23for the Pinscripes.
11:24New York, a road favorite tonight
11:26against their divisional foes in the Jays.
11:29That price right now, the Yanks,
11:31minus 144 on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
11:34Total on the rise ever so slightly
11:35to eight and a half up in the six.
11:38Yanks, Jays, today starting in Toronto.
11:41What do you like?
11:41One of my prop bets yesterday on Pro Baseball today
11:44was the team total over four and a half
11:46for the Toronto Blue Jays.
11:47They played at five runs.
11:48I've been really happy with the Blue Jays' offense.
11:50They are going up against a decent pitcher today
11:51in Carlos Rodon.
11:53His last 30 days, a 98 XFIP minus a 3.72 ERA
11:56and a 3.99 XFIP number, which is very good.
11:59It's going to be able to compete against that tough lineup.
12:02The question is, what are we getting out of Max Scherzer tonight?
12:04Only 32 total batters faced on the season this year.
12:07Hasn't done all that well with the power numbers
12:08from right-handers, but again, he hasn't faced all that many
12:12at this point.
12:12He's faced way more lefties, but if you are looking at a pitcher
12:15that's not of the pedigree that we're used to seeing in Max Scherzer,
12:17which I don't anticipate he's going more than five innings
12:19if he even does pitch well tonight,
12:21the weighted on base percentages for that Yankees lineup
12:23over the past 30 days, very good on Grisham,
12:25very good on Judge, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm,
12:27Anthony Volpe, and D.J. LeMahieu.
12:29I just think the better pitcher on the mound today
12:31is actually Rodon, and that means the better lineup tonight
12:34for me to trust would be the New York Yankees.
12:36The Yankees should be able to win this game, but they aren't.
12:38It's not free.
12:39It's not plus 100.
12:40It's a minus 156, as you see on that graphic right now,
12:43but I'm still not trusting Max Scherzer just yet,
12:45but also yesterday, as you brought it up,
12:47finally, the Yankees bringing the bats in the game
12:49where they don't get smoked and still goes over the total.
12:52Maybe the good vibes continue because, as we know,
12:54it's great hitting ballpark up there in Toronto,
12:5573-degree temperatures.
12:57There is some rain in the forecast that's always interesting to me.
13:00If that roof can stay open, let some of that heat and humidity in,
13:02as opposed to it being closed,
13:04could make the difference tonight in that total.
13:05But to me, I'm trusting the Yankees more than Scherzer
13:07on the mound here for the Toronto Blue Jays.
13:1012-5 victory yesterday for New York,
13:13snapping a streak of 16 straight games playing to the under.
13:18They hammered around Luis Severino.
13:20Two home runs for Aaron Judge.
13:22His total now three dingers this year in MLB,
13:25only two back of Cal Raleigh.
13:27We'll talk about the Mariners in Seattle in just a second.
13:30Quickly on Luis Severino.
13:32Kind of funny, right?
13:33The A's made history in their organization.
13:36One of the largest contracts ever.
13:38Three years, $67 million.
13:40Severino had basically said,
13:41Sacramento sucks pitching in this stadium
13:44as a minor league ballpark is terrible.
13:47His home road splits show that.
13:49But yesterday on the road against the New York Yankees,
13:52yeah, it wasn't a pleasant sight.
13:54The Jays, the RS, 15-10 in June have a chance to make that 16-10 tonight.
14:00The Rays, 17-9 in June, only behind the Astros
14:04for the second best record in this month.
14:07Because of that, the Yankees once largely to top the American League East,
14:11only a game and a half now in front of the Rays,
14:14just three games in front of the Jays,
14:16starting on this Monday night in the midweek set.
14:20All right, speaking of Seattle,
14:22two home runs for Aaron Judge yesterday.
14:23He gets to 30.
14:25Only had two homers entering yesterday in his previous 14 games.
14:29What's wrong with Big Dumper?
14:31The question has to be asked around Cal Raleigh
14:33when he has not hit a long ball in six consecutive games.
14:38Might that change tonight?
14:40As the Mariners host the Royals, minus 162 the price on Seattle.
14:44George Kirby gets the start.
14:46Total stands at seven and a half.
14:49Out West, Ems, Royals, what do we like?
14:52Yeah, here's the crazy part.
14:54About a two-first pitch out there, which is a night game, going to be 79 degrees.
14:57Is that the hottest degree temperature in the history of the city of Seattle
15:00at like 7 or 8 o'clock at night?
15:01Could it be here?
15:02So the heat and humidity might be able to creep in.
15:04We'll see what happens.
15:05But again, you see that total at seven and a half,
15:07and there's good reason for that.
15:09You take a look at both of these lineups.
15:10Sure, there's some hitters that you would like to back.
15:11But if you're looking at the pitching prospects tonight, George Kirby, again,
15:15limited innings here over the past 30 days, an 80 XFIP minus in ERA of around 3.5,
15:20but an XFIP number of 3.30.
15:22You love to see that.
15:23And you say, well, what are we getting on the opposite side?
15:25Michael Wacca, ERA 3.56, XFIP minus number under 100 with a 3.93 ERA.
15:31Anytime you have games in Seattle, it's almost like you don't even care who the lineup is.
15:35Just give me two decent pitchers, which you have, and you just can say,
15:37hey, you know what, what's this game, 3-2, 4-2, 4-3, something in that range.
15:41That's the way I would go.
15:42But it is interesting.
15:43Usually, we're talking about like 68 degrees, 70 degrees.
15:46An extra 10 degrees could make a difference.
15:48Not for me tonight, though.
15:49I'm not looking at the batters.
15:50I'm looking at the pitchers tonight to keep that game under the total.
15:54It is why that total is 7.5, by the way, for Cal Raleigh to hit a home run tonight
15:59in the Northwest, plus 240.
16:02Not quite the short numbers we saw last week when he had four straight games
16:07of a home run.
16:08We finish out this eight-game slate next.
16:11An eight-game slate around Major League Baseball on this final day of June.
16:15It is a Monday in the bigs.
16:17In DRS, we finish out the three games we have yet to preview and break down.
16:23Let's head to Fenway.
16:24The Boston Red Sox sent out Garrett Crochet.
16:26Frankly, if it wasn't for Terrence Scooble,
16:29being how dominant he has been this year now, 10-2,
16:33another gem last night on Sunday Night Baseball.
16:35First time in the Motor City since 2017 against the Twins.
16:40Crochet and even Houston's Hunter Brown would certainly be in the mix.
16:44But Scooble has the nod at this moment.
16:46Crochet in his debut year in Boston, though, has been sensational.
16:50The Red Sox tonight host the Reds.
16:53Minus 178, the price on Boston, with Crochet on the bump.
16:57That total 7.5.
16:59Who gets the start for Cincinnati?
17:01It would be the rookie.
17:03Career start number two for Chase Burns.
17:06The number two overall pick in last summer's draft.
17:09DRS was thrilling in his MLB debut last week against the Yanks.
17:14Struck out the side 1-2-3 in his debut inning.
17:17Even putting 100 miles per hour on the radar gun.
17:20Striking out Aaron Judge.
17:21The first six outs he recorded of his MLB career all via the K.
17:26Tonight, he gets Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox on the other side.
17:30What do you like tonight in Fenway?
17:32Yeah, Chase Burns, right?
17:33Like the rollercoaster.
17:34Like, oh, this is fun.
17:35You're going up the anticipation.
17:36Then you get the second order here and you drop down.
17:39And it was terrible here for Chase Burns.
17:40We'll see if he bounces back.
17:41But the one thing to understand, when you have a flamethrower pitcher,
17:44sometimes it takes, you know, a couple games at least to get a book on the guy.
17:47Or a couple of the bats against the guy to see what he has.
17:50You might get that element tonight.
17:51Because anytime we talk about Boston, 80-degree temperatures with the wind
17:55blowing out to left, I don't care how significant, you're looking at the offense.
17:58But if we start with Garrett Crochet, his last month, a 52 XFIP minus number,
18:03which is incredible.
18:04An ERA of 2.10, phenomenal.
18:06An XFIP number of 2.17.
18:08That's a good hitting monitor for Cincinnati and fun.
18:11But he's been a great pitcher.
18:12And usually the better pitching holds down the better bats here.
18:15But again, with Chase Burns, you see that 7.5.
18:18There is a chance that he goes right through like a hot knife through butter
18:20that first time around.
18:22Because throwing 100 and 100-plus is jarring specifically
18:26if you don't know about his breaking ball tendencies and how active it is.
18:29You want to get a look, as you saw in his last start.
18:31So I lean once again to the under in Boston tonight.
18:34It is a heavy favorite where you could get a Chase Burns start where he goes five innings
18:38and they can't touch him because it's not a great lineup per se from the Boston Red Sox,
18:42even though they do hit right-handed pitching fairly well over the past month.
18:46For me, Boston should win this game.
18:47They do have the better pitcher, but I'm just, I don't know what I'm getting out of Burns.
18:51Maybe it was a lot of, hey, you know what?
18:53I was really excited in start number one.
18:55Got off to a hot start.
18:56Maybe I should measure myself a little bit better.
18:59Maybe I should get a better game called.
19:00Maybe listen to the catcher more a little bit if I'm shaking them off some of those signs.
19:03I still look forward to the under, but it's intriguing to see what Burns does tonight
19:06in that bounce-back start at that phenomenal first and second inning that he had last time out.
19:12Did give up three earned in that third, I believe.
19:15The Reds did come all the way back to win that game in X, Chris.
19:18However, the talent and potential for Chase Burns is certainly, certainly there.
19:24The Red Sox, by the way, DRS, last weekend in the opening game of their set out in San Francisco
19:29with all the notoriety following the Rafael Devers trade to the Giants,
19:34the Red Sox won that.
19:35They were three games above .500, .40 and .37.
19:38Since, Boston has now dropped seven of its last eight games,
19:43and the Red Sox are now three games sub .500.
19:46Cincinnati, four games above.
19:48The Reds trying to be a playoff team, and I want my Reds, who are .44 and .40,
19:53to get to .80 wins, more than halfway there through the midway point of this MLB season.
19:59Let's head out to Arlington tonight.
20:01A Texas tussle between the Rangers and the Orioles.
20:04Much like last week, DRS, same kind of story in previewing these matchups.
20:08Two teams that have largely been disappointing this season.
20:11The Rangers, still 41 and 33, a few games below .500.
20:15The Orioles, even worse than that, 36 and 47.
20:1911 games sub .500 in the cellar of the American League East.
20:23And for the Rangers, it is the same story.
20:26They do not allow you to score a lot of runs,
20:30but they can't really score offensively on the other side.
20:33Despite the Yankees playing 16 consecutive games to the under,
20:38that streak snapped on a Sunday.
20:40The team that has played the most unders and has the highest under percentage in the bigs,
20:45you bet it's in Arlington, that being the Rangers.
20:4854 of 84 total games to the under this year.
20:53Tonight, the Rangers taking on the O's.
20:56And DRS, that total, eight and a half.
20:58Patrick Corbin gets the start for Texas.
21:01But Baltimore, an ever-so-slight road favorite on the road in Arlington.
21:06Yeah, take a look at Corbin.
21:07He's actually got a 98 XFIT minus, which is right around average,
21:09which you'll take out of his performances.
21:11His ERA over the past month, though, is elevated at a 5.08.
21:15Here's the question, though.
21:16Corbin is a lefty.
21:17Corbin has decent statistics, but doesn't strike guys out.
21:20Sooner than later, that gets you into a lot of trouble.
21:22But you look at the lineup tonight for the Baltimore Orioles over the past month,
21:25they don't hit left-handed pitching all that well,
21:26and that's always something to keep an eye on.
21:28Now, let's get to the other side and even have more fun.
21:31Trevor Rodgers is on the mound.
21:32Only 64 total batters on the season that he's faced.
21:34He's also not a strikeout guy.
21:36Only 42 batters in the past month that he's faced, guys.
21:39He actually has a very good ISO and weighted on base percentage.
21:41But here's the kicker.
21:42Looking at that lineup coming into today for the Texas Rangers
21:45against lefties over the past month.
21:47Sam Haggerty has 25 at-bats.
21:49His weighted on base percentage against those left-handed pitchers, a 4.65.
21:53Wow, that's awesome.
21:54Adoles Garcia at a 5.21.
21:57Tremendous.
21:57Again, limited at-bats, 25 and 19, respectively.
22:00The rest of the lineup, I'm going to read you,
22:02they're weighted on base percentages, Ben.
22:04Seager, 194.
22:06Simeon, 242.
22:07Haim, 064.
22:09Higashioka, 192.
22:10Young, 210.
22:12Foscue, zero.
22:13Hellman, zero.
22:15They don't hit left-handed pitching for power whatsoever.
22:19They don't strike out a lot, but there's no power numbers.
22:21It's hard to say you're going to get nine runs hit.
22:23Boy, these two pitchers, these two lineups, they should really hit.
22:26They don't against lefties, and you just have to ride that trend.
22:29Feels like another under to me down there in Texas.
22:32Yeah, 8.5, too.
22:33Maybe a little bit of wiggle room for this team in Texas that plays so many unders,
22:38more than 65% of their games.
22:41Donnie, we did mention that the Tampa Bay Rays,
22:44second-best record in June in the bigs, 17-9.
22:48Two games behind Houston for that best mark in this month.
22:52One final game for Tampa tonight against the Athletics.
22:56Two teams playing in minor league ballparks this year.
23:00The Rays did lose the weekend.
23:01Really high-scoring series against the O's, including on Friday,
23:06Baltimore winning 22-8.
23:08The Rays returned with 15 runs on Saturday.
23:11They did not win, though, two of those three games,
23:14nor the rubber match yesterday.
23:15Yesterday, today, Tampa minus 180 against the Athletics.
23:19Over-understands at 8.
23:22DRS tonight in Tampa.
23:24What's the play?
23:25Well, I don't know if we should get a price point of that high here.
23:28I'm going to tell you why.
23:28Look, a minus 196 favorite.
23:30Is Tampa better than the Sacramento A's?
23:32Yes, they are.
23:33But understand this.
23:34Jacob Lopez's last 30 days, Ben, how about an 84 XFIP minus,
23:38which, again, 100 is the baseline.
23:39That's very good.
23:40How about an ERA if you like that?
23:411.98 over the past month.
23:43How about an XFIP number?
23:45Very manageable at 3.45.
23:47You take a look at Lopez coming in.
23:49He is a strikeout guy.
23:50His last 30 days and 113 batters faced.
23:53How about a K rate of 34%?
23:55Lefty on lefty, that's 43% here.
23:57You have a talented lineup.
23:59It's going to be a ton of right-handed batters,
24:01and that's where you want to focus.
24:02To say usually lefties will struggle with righties, not the case, Ben.
24:05His last 92 batters that he's faced from the right side,
24:09a 150 ISO, above average.
24:10A weighted on base percentage, 302 for a pitcher.
24:12That's above average, a K rate of 32%.
24:15You love to see that here.
24:17So, for me, I want to take a swing at the athletics tonight.
24:20I'll take that huge plus money price and at least put me in the ballpark
24:24through five innings with a chance to win,
24:26even though they're not the better team.
24:2817-9, that record for the Rays.
24:31DRS, that's the eight-game slate on this Monday in MLB.
24:34Let's transition back over to Major League Baseball, Tom.
24:37The home run market.
24:38Tom's bombs here.
24:40Who's going to lead Major League Baseball?
24:43Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber.
24:45Big price points here.
24:46Why?
24:46Because Judge is the favorite.
24:48He's listed right now to win this award.
24:51I guess you could say an award at a minus 130 price at this point here.
24:54And Cal Raleigh in second at plus 190.
24:55Can anybody catch Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge?
24:58Is there a long shot, Tom, that's in your toolbox right now
25:01to see if it can get done?
25:02I think it would have to be – listen, again, this comes down to
25:06if you have no position on it, and this is something that I've always said.
25:09Yeah, it's got to be Schwarber, right?
25:11He's, what, seven behind right now, 25 to 32.
25:14You're just simply – you are making a play on the number that we got at Schwarber.
25:19And Schwarber has traditionally heated up.
25:20And, yeah, historically, Junes have been great for him.
25:23But there's times that we see him rattle off four or five home runs in a week.
25:27So if you were saying, okay, it's like roughly the halfway point of the season,
25:30if you just want to have a little bit of action to wind down the end of the season,
25:33Schwarber would be the play to make.
25:35You're not betting on Raleigh, Judge, or Otani at that price.
25:37Eugenio Suarez, I believe he will be eventually traded at some point,
25:40which could impact his home run projection because if he's changing parks,
25:44that'll be vastly different.
25:45But if you want to have a little bit of fun, very small unit,
25:47or, you know, not an eight unit, but like a quarter unit on Schwarber,
25:50that's the fun play to make.
25:53Well, if we compare the top two guys, Vecchio,
25:55with Cal Raleigh not being the minus money favorite
25:58and yet two homers in front of Aaron Judge.
26:01End of this season, who ends up with more dingers?
26:04Big dumper or captain number 99 in pinstripes?
26:07Honestly, if you believe it's going to be Cal Raleigh,
26:09you should just be making a play on the MVP odds
26:11because those are much longer.
26:13And that would just put him in a spot to potentially compete with Judge
26:15rather than just something that's a little bit highly variable like home runs.
26:20You think you would have to get 60 plus,
26:22if not flirt with that American League record the judge set a few seasons ago.
26:27Donnie, enjoy the money line.
26:30Vecchio and I continue next.
26:32Live right here on the early line,
26:34rounding out our three hours together on this Monday.
26:37Tom Vecchio still here.
26:39And Vecchio, as we welcomed you on,
26:41and right as we were all reacting to it,
26:43we had that breaking news of the trade between the Dolphins and the Steelers
26:47that sent Jalen Ramsey from Miami to Pittsburgh.
26:50The Steelers trying to be all in as much as possible.
26:54But what's rather interesting, Tom,
26:57is that in return, as we are learning now from ESPN's Adam Schefter,
27:02making his way back to Miami after he was once traded from the Finns to the Steelers,
27:08Minka Fitzpatrick, also the three-time all-pro defensive back,
27:13is going back to the Dolphins,
27:15a rare player-for-player trade.
27:18But unlike Ramsey, who has not been a Pro Bowler either of his two years in Miami,
27:24Fitzpatrick has been a Pro Bowler three consecutive years,
27:27including last season for Pittsburgh.
27:31So Minka Fitzpatrick, younger, more recently a Pro Bowler,
27:35traded to Miami in return.
27:38Jalen Ramsey now in Pittsburgh.
27:40Interesting development to this trade between the Steelers and the Dolphins.
27:43Yeah, I would say this takes what I said about the Steelers and even furthers that.
27:49Like, giving up a younger, better player when it's all said and done,
27:53I don't think is the right path.
27:55Obviously, a good move for the Dolphins,
27:56and it strengthens them to potentially be in a spot to win a wild card.
28:00I don't think they're as good as the Bills to compete in the AFC East.
28:05But them taking a wild card spot is certainly on the table this year.
28:08It's certainly not going to be easy.
28:09I think the Pats are going to be vastly improved this year compared to where they were last year.
28:13Same thing with the Jets, not vastly improved, but certainly the Pats.
28:16Good move for the Dolphins.
28:18Get a little bit younger.
28:20Wild card spot for them.
28:22Yeah.
28:22In fact, I kind of agree with you in terms of the overall assessment.
28:26It's notable from name and notoriety in the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey.
28:30Does it elevate the ceiling in the Steel City beyond perhaps a winning record
28:35or maybe even 10 wins in a playoff spot?
28:38Does it change the tune that this is the year for the first time since 2016?
28:42Pittsburgh finally wins even one playoff game?
28:46Not so sure.
28:47The Dolphins kind of flirting with around 500, it would seem, this year.
28:51All right, Vecchio.
28:52Before we close out, let's talk a little bit of Major League Baseball on this Monday.
28:56Final day in June.
28:58Eight game slate.
28:59Let's head out to the desert between the D-backs and the Giants.
29:04Two divisional foes in the National League West,
29:06who were both most recently swept this past week by the Miami Marlins.
29:10Arizona over the weekend.
29:12The Giants last week and then lost a weekend in Chicago against the White Sox.
29:18The Giants a slight favorite on the road today against Arizona.
29:21Why?
29:22Because Logan Webb gets the start for the Giants.
29:25How do you think he will perform against the Snakes on this Monday night?
29:29Logan Webb is awesome.
29:31He's one of the best pitchers in the league this year.
29:32He's seen a vast improvement in his strikeout rate.
29:35It's up to 27% this year.
29:37I want to be on the record in saying that I think Logan Webb should be on the World Baseball Classic roster next year.
29:42He's that good of a pitcher.
29:43I like what I've seen from Arizona in terms of their offense, but it's vastly inconsistent.
29:48And when we look month over month, their strikeout rate is actually increasing 20%, 21%, 22%.
29:53Obviously, it's a smaller sample size just by going month by month.
29:56But what I also love from Logan Webb is that he's never, like, he never gets blown up.
30:01Like, he's never giving up home runs.
30:02He's never giving me a lot of, you know, hard contact.
30:04So, he can legitimately go six, seven innings, as we often see him do.
30:07And even if his strikeout rate isn't the highest on a per-game basis, the length of the game will be there for him to go over five and a half.
30:15So, I saw it at minus 130.
30:17I saw some minus 135s out there where we shot for the best line available.
30:20But 27% strikeout rate is a career high for him.
30:22He's in a great spot to continue the length and go over five and a half today.
30:25For right now, though, we recommend you go to the FanDuel Sportsbook.
30:30All right, Vecchio, that second prop on the board or the second play on the board, I should say.
30:35Two teams this year playing baseball in minor league ballparks.
30:38But the Rays doing that much more successfully.
30:41They are 17-9 in June.
30:44Today, it's Tampa in the athletics down there in Florida.
30:48What do you like in this matchup?
30:50I like runs.
30:51It's no surprise, as we've seen.
30:52And it's also important to note that the Tampa Bay Rays are barely playing any home games throughout July just because the MLB has changed their schedule because they know that there's so much rain.
31:02So, they have three home games.
31:04Then they're on the road for, I think, 12 or 15 straight games.
31:06So, essentially, I want to strike when the irons hop because we don't know how many overs we could potentially get in with the team.
31:12But if we're at home and we get an eight number for them, I think this is the time to go over great weather.
31:16Yeah, there may be a little bit of rain, but they've been scoring a ton as of late.
31:20Give me over eight today.
31:22That total is eight right now.
31:24The over has the juice at minus 120.
31:27A great breakdown from the prop perspective.
31:30And the jack of all trades, TV Tom Vecchio, always delivering.
31:34Tom, thanks for being here on this Monday to help us close out the show.
31:38Thanks for having me.
31:40As always, Vecchio, I am sure we will talk later on this week.
31:44That does it for us on this Monday on The Early Line.
31:48The show returns tomorrow at 8 a.m. Eastern time on Sportsbook.
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