- 5/29/2025
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00:00Quick change of pace, Mark Zinno.
00:02World Series odds.
00:03Major League Baseball in 2025.
00:06And our two frontrunners, the Dodgers, plus 240.
00:08The Yankees, plus 550.
00:10Zinno, your pinstripes have won 16 of their last 20.
00:13They will meet up this weekend in Los Angeles.
00:17Is our weekend set at Chavez Ravine between the Dodgers and the Yankees
00:20in World Series preview?
00:23God, I hope not, because the Yankees won't win that one again either.
00:26That's neither here nor there.
00:28Hold on a second.
00:29Hold on a second.
00:30So, as a Yankees fan, you hope it is not a World Series preview
00:33after a World Series rematch because you are hoping the Dodgers
00:37are not the team the Yankees have to see?
00:40Yes, that is correct.
00:40Or you don't think the Yankees are good enough,
00:42despite your fandom, to win a World Series?
00:44I don't think the Yankees and Aaron Boone at the helm
00:46are good enough to ever win a World Series,
00:47but that's a different conversation.
00:49So, neither here nor there.
00:51But, yeah, I don't want to face the Dodgers again,
00:52and I hope that they don't make it to the World Series.
00:54They've been overpriced this entire year because they're not that separate
00:58from the market.
00:59They're not that separate as a baseball team,
01:00but what the market tells us they are.
01:02Okay.
01:02I agree with that as well.
01:04It's a long baseball season and a very random sport.
01:07Just needed the clarification there.
01:09Mark Sino, it is always a pleasure, man.
01:11Money well earned on this Thursday.
01:14We thank you for being here.
01:15Amen, brother.
01:16Thanks, guys.
01:17Thanks for being here, as always.
01:19Hour number three comes your way up now.
01:22We welcome you back to the Early Line live right here on this Thursday
01:25in person, in studio.
01:27Deuces up.
01:28No unidentified pink substances for us here on this Thursday.
01:33We break down a short Major League Baseball card
01:36that was expanded ever so slightly to the rest
01:38based on, as you told us, an excellent forecast
01:41or a postponed day in Philadelphia.
01:44We hope to play two today in the city of brotherly love
01:47between the Phils and the Braves.
01:50Game number one, a slight change in starting pitcher
01:53for what was the presumed matchup yesterday
01:55with A.J. Smith-Shawber on the bump for the Atlanta Braves,
01:59but instead of matching up against Zach Wheeler,
02:02who will go in game number two against Chris Sale,
02:04it's Christopher Sanchez getting the start today for Philadelphia.
02:07Usually you would say to yourself, like,
02:08well, why would you even move out?
02:10Why wouldn't you just have that first game here
02:12and throw Zach Wheeler and go up 2-0 in the series,
02:14and it doesn't matter if you lose the final game,
02:16you still picked up a game in the series.
02:18Well, here's the great problem about the Philadelphia Phillies.
02:20Everybody they throw is a great pitcher this season for them,
02:23and every single option you have is a great option.
02:26So if you can win with Christopher Sanchez,
02:28and mind you, they're close to a minus 150 favorite
02:30in game number one, then the slight favorite
02:32in game number two.
02:33Why?
02:34Because then you have Chris Sale versus Zach Wheeler,
02:36and they're still a favorite in that game.
02:37So theoretically, if you're just playing the odds,
02:40the Phillies should sweep the entire series,
02:42but we know how doubleheaders work.
02:44One team is going to win,
02:45secondhand team that loses game number one,
02:48throws all in for game number two.
02:49So I like the way the Phillies are playing and going,
02:51okay, we're going to win game number one
02:52with Sanchez on the mound
02:53because he's better than Smith-Schauvin,
02:54we're a better baseball team.
02:55They go, must win in game number three.
02:57We're going to throw our best pitcher out here
02:59to absolutely demoralize you for the rest of the season.
03:02This could play out perfectly for the Philadelphia Phillies,
03:04but if you would have told me, Ben,
03:05coming into this series,
03:07the Phillies would take two out of three games
03:08from the Atlanta Braves
03:09and extend it to, what, nine and a half games back?
03:12That's exactly what the Phillies wanted.
03:14An absolute meltdown for the Braves
03:16if they come into the series and get swept,
03:18which they're staring at right now
03:20because they're not favored in either one of these games.
03:22Yeah, and the Phillies playing a really good brand
03:24of baseball as of late.
03:25And to Donnie's point,
03:26Christopher Sanchez is not Zach Wheeler, perhaps,
03:29but he is still four and one this year
03:31with a 3-1-7 ERA,
03:33and he gives up some runs during his outings.
03:36He's not going to blank everybody every time,
03:38but he's only had one start this year
03:40where he's allowed more than three earned,
03:41which, of course, is going to keep his team
03:43in every single baseball game
03:45and the home road splits, as DRS mentioned.
03:47He is really good at the bank.
03:49What are we looking at weather-wise today in Philadelphia?
03:5270 degrees, no rain in the forecast.
03:53Should be cleared out, certainly by game time.
03:55Some mist and some light rain
03:57was this morning in the Philadelphia area.
03:59Light wind, so whether they're blowing in or out
04:00at this point won't have any difference.
04:01We should get two really clean games out here
04:04with no excuses.
04:05And so what do you predict happens in this doubleheader?
04:08Always difficult to sweep a team in a doubleheader,
04:10even if your ace is starting that finale
04:12against the other team's ace
04:14and the reigning NL Cy Young winner in Chris Sale.
04:17Do we see a split today, or will one team sweep?
04:19Well, the question here is,
04:21let's just say the Phillies in game number one
04:23pick up a victory.
04:24And you say, okay, well, it's, man,
04:25it's, you know, your best pitcher,
04:27Zach Wheeler, on the mound.
04:28Hear me out on this,
04:29because it's not really the strategy
04:30that you want to focus on and say,
04:31well, that's the way you should go.
04:32Just split it, and it doesn't matter who's pitching,
04:34because that's a great pitching matchup.
04:36But Chris Sale being on the mound,
04:37he's been really good this season, excuse me,
04:40and was great last year winning the Cy Young.
04:42But the Phillies have really hit left-handed pitching well.
04:44So usually you'd see, like, a Chris Sale,
04:46oh, they're going to completely shut down
04:47the Phillies lineup.
04:48Once I set the Philadelphia Phillies
04:49had a great game in game number one,
04:50only scoring two runs there
04:52and getting one late on a walk from the bullpen
04:54with the bases loaded.
04:55But here's the issue, though.
04:56Like, Zach Wheeler has been so good.
04:58Like, how do you play this?
04:59Game number one, I do think the Phillies win,
05:01because they have a bigger advantage
05:02with the pitchers on the mound,
05:03as opposed to game number two,
05:04even though I told you it's Zach Wheeler.
05:06But when I look at game number two,
05:07it just feels to me like that's two pitchers
05:10understanding what's on the line
05:11between both franchises,
05:12where I would just play that game to the under.
05:14Game number one, I would go Phillies money line.
05:16Game number two, even though, hey,
05:17Zach Wheeler at home with the Phillies,
05:18they should win that anyway.
05:20That's more of an underplay for me.
05:21Eight is the total for the opening game of two today,
05:24starting a little bit after 1 p.m.
05:25Eastern time in Philadelphia.
05:27Game number two, scheduled for 6.46 p.m.
05:30Eastern time, that total seven and a half.
05:33Outside of the two in Philly today,
05:35only three other games DRS2 break down.
05:38And again, we have talked about the importance
05:40of this midweek set in late May.
05:42What's the big deal with where we are right now
05:44in the MLB campaign?
05:46Nearly a third of the way through.
05:48In fact, a little bit more
05:49than a third of the way through here.
05:51The Atlanta Braves enter today's doubleheader
05:53in Philadelphia, 25-28, three games below .500.
05:57If there is any life in the division,
06:00you really got to start to make some moves right now.
06:02If there is any life for Atlanta at all,
06:04DRS, of being an NL postseason team,
06:06you really got to start to turn it around.
06:09Late May, early June, deeper into this summer,
06:11it is why the Braves have been placed on Fork Watch.
06:15We go to another game today out in Houston.
06:18The Astros and the Rays in what is a basic pick-em,
06:21with Houston having a slight home edge.
06:23Minus 116, the updated numbers on that money line.
06:26Total now up by a hook, eight and a half
06:29for today's game between Tampa and Houston.
06:31What do you like here in the H-Town showdown?
06:33One of my favorite pitchers in Major League Baseball
06:35on the mound, Ryan Mucho Gusto.
06:38You got to like that guy.
06:39And why do you like him?
06:40His last 70 batters had his face, guys.
06:42Check this out.
06:43A 281 ISO power number against.
06:45A weighted on-base percentage of 435 against.
06:49And you'll love this, a walk rate of 17%.
06:52That's unheard of.
06:53Like a terrible walk rate for a pitcher is like 9%.
06:55He's double that at this point.
06:57And usually you say to yourself,
06:58okay, Tampa Bay doesn't have great baseball,
07:00you know, great hitters per se.
07:02Well, those numbers have really jumped up this year.
07:03Why?
07:04Because they're actually playing a ballpark
07:05that allows for hits and home runs.
07:06Now, they're not there today.
07:07They're in Houston.
07:08That's still a great hitters ballpark,
07:09even though it is a dome,
07:10and we don't get the heat and humidity in there.
07:12Look at the first five batters he anticipated
07:14to go up against Gusto today,
07:15who's a right-handed batter.
07:16Here, 36 at-bats, 71, 57, 66, and 62.
07:20A really good feel.
07:22212, 270, 204, 180, and 213.
07:25Those are the ISO power numbers
07:27against right-handed pitching.
07:28Look at the weighted on-base percentages.
07:30358, 420, 348, 375, and 324.
07:33For me, it's simple.
07:34It's a little bit juicy.
07:35Team total over with the Tampa Bay Rays today
07:37at 3.5.
07:38It was coming in this morning around
07:39like a minus 150, minus 145 price on FanDuel.
07:42I think it makes a lot of sense there
07:44where you're saying,
07:44I don't know if they can win,
07:45but you better be getting four runs
07:47off my guy, Mucho Gusto, out there.
07:49I don't mean to yuck your yum
07:51or to harp on anything for you.
07:53I do think it is pronounced Gusto.
07:54It doesn't matter what he says.
07:56It doesn't matter.
07:57I agree.
07:58I just wanted to put that out there
08:00so we understand that it's Gusto,
08:02but we call him Mucho Gusto here.
08:04Ryan, Mucho Gusto.
08:06The Rays playing pretty good baseball as of late.
08:08They've won seven of their last eight,
08:09including the rubber match,
08:10to end out their home midweek series
08:12against Minnesota today,
08:14and Houston starts a four-game midweek set.
08:17They also played the Astros at home in Tampa last week,
08:20took the final two games of that set to win it.
08:23The Astros have won four in a row.
08:24They only played the A's twice
08:26in the middle of this week.
08:27They won both.
08:28They have won five of their last six.
08:31So a pretty good matchup today
08:32with Ryan Mucho Gusto.
08:35Yep.
08:35On the bottom for Houston.
08:37The other two games we have
08:38as a part of this short Thursday slate.
08:40Next.
08:41So again, just a short five-game slate
08:43in Major League Baseball,
08:44but only eight teams in action
08:46because of the two that we are playing today
08:48at the bank in Philadelphia.
08:50Let's head out to the Northwest.
08:52A series comes to a close
08:54between the Mariners and the Nationals tonight.
08:56Seattle, a home favorite,
08:57minus 120 on that money line.
09:00Total stands at seven and a half.
09:03Ems, Nats, the rubber match,
09:05DRS of this midweek series.
09:06What's the play?
09:07Yeah, surprising last night.
09:08I thought the Mariners would be able
09:09to do a little bit of damage at the plate.
09:10They weren't able to do that.
09:11Mackenzie Gore will be on the mound today
09:13as a left-handed pitcher.
09:14Struggles more with lefties
09:15than he does righties,
09:16which is usually an interesting anomaly.
09:18But also, take a look at some of these batters
09:20in the lineup for the Seattle Mariners tonight.
09:22That includes Julio Rodriguez
09:23and also Cal Rowley.
09:2536 at-bats and 35 combats,
09:27each one of those guys,
09:28over the past month
09:29against left-handed pitching.
09:30How about Cal Rowley,
09:31who will bat from the right-hand side tonight?
09:32A 515 ISO power number
09:34and a 565 weighted on base percentage.
09:36The guy is actually, you know,
09:3818, 19 home runs, I believe,
09:39on the season,
09:40right up there near the tops
09:41in Major League Baseball.
09:42He's been fantastic.
09:43Sometimes you lose sight of that
09:44being in the Pacific Northwest.
09:45Julio Rodriguez,
09:4636 at-bats against lefties
09:48over the past month.
09:49How about a 371 ISO
09:50and a weighted on base percentage
09:51of 411?
09:52Those two guys make sense
09:53for some RBI props.
09:54But flip it over to the other side.
09:56Two of my favorite batters
09:57in that Washington lineup
09:58go one-two as lefties.
09:59That's C.J. Abrams
10:00and James Wood.
10:01You take a look at Emerson Hancock
10:02on the mound.
10:03180 batters he's faced
10:05in the season.
10:05But I want to focus
10:06on his last 30 days
10:07and particularly the lefties.
10:08He's faced 127 total batters.
10:1149 of those
10:12from the left-hand side.
10:12And Hancock is
10:13a right-handed pitcher.
10:15Look at these ISO power numbers.
10:17333.
10:17Weighted on base percentage.
10:19444.
10:20Strikeout rate.
10:20Only 14% to lefties.
10:22You look at the first two guys,
10:23as I said,
10:23Abrams and Wood.
10:2482 at-bats
10:25and 74 at-bats
10:26respectively here
10:27against right-handed bats
10:28over the past 30 days.
10:30A .222 ISO for Abrams
10:31and a .234 weighted
10:32on base percentage here
10:33for James Wood.
10:34One of those guys
10:35also going to do damage.
10:36So instead of saying to myself,
10:37which side do I think
10:38wins this game?
10:39I think if you go
10:39RBI prop Rodriguez,
10:41RBI prop Raleigh,
10:42and then come back
10:43with Abrams and Wood,
10:44you're probably going to get
10:44two of those four players
10:45to get an RBI tonight.
10:46And if not,
10:47maybe a home run or two
10:48from those guys.
10:48PRS, you're not lying
10:49about Big Dumper.
10:51That's Cal Raleigh.
10:52He's cracking, man.
10:52He's cracking.
10:5319 home runs this year.
10:54That's the lead
10:54in the American League.
10:56Of course,
10:56only one dinger shy
10:58of Shohei Ohtani.
10:59Big Dump.
11:00Big Dumper.
11:01That is his legitimate nickname.
11:03He is an absolute stud
11:04out there.
11:04Cal Raleigh
11:05for the Seattle Mariners
11:06who have struggled
11:07a little bit DRS
11:08here as of late.
11:09They lost three of four
11:10in their weekend series
11:11against divisional foe
11:12in the Houston Astros.
11:14They entered today
11:15in the series finale
11:16against the Nats
11:17with only a half game lead.
11:19They won the first
11:19winning nine run,
11:21scoring nine runs.
11:23Cal Raleigh had two home runs
11:24in that game
11:25to get to 19.
11:26They did lose
11:27the second game
11:27of the series yesterday.
11:29The Astros 30 and 25.
11:31The Mariners 30 and 24.
11:34We could see a change
11:35in the divisional lead
11:36depending on the results today,
11:38both in Houston
11:39and of course,
11:40this rubber match
11:40in the series finale
11:41in Seattle.
11:43A weekend series begins
11:44up in the sixth
11:45in Toronto
11:46between the Blue Jays
11:47and the A's.
11:48Total eight and a half.
11:49Toronto with Jose Barrios
11:50on the bump DRS
11:51a minus 162 now.
11:53So the odds working
11:55in their favor.
11:56Home money line favorite.
11:58The Blue Jays did take
11:59two of three this week
12:00against the Texas Rangers,
12:01but still a game
12:02under 500.
12:04Trying to use this weekend
12:05set to get above 500
12:07and maybe somebody,
12:09if anybody,
12:09providing any glimpse
12:10of a test
12:11to the New York Yankees.
12:12Yeah, probably leaning more
12:13towards an under in this game.
12:14The reason so,
12:14you take a look at the Blue Jays,
12:15who do have some guys
12:16with some above average
12:17ISO power numbers
12:18and weighted on base percentages
12:19against left-handed pitchers,
12:20who will be Jacob Lopez.
12:22Only 66 total batters
12:23he's faced on the season.
12:24But get this,
12:25like Guerrero's high,
12:26Springer's high,
12:27Clement's high,
12:28which means
12:28they're all right-handed batters.
12:30You say, okay,
12:30that makes sense.
12:31Left-handed pitchers,
12:31right-handed batters,
12:32that's probably where he struggles.
12:33But just looking at
12:34some of the totals,
12:3552 batters he's faced this season.
12:370-67 ISO against
12:39and a 3-0-5
12:39weighted on base percentage.
12:41If you take those numbers
12:42from full season
12:42and take them down
12:43to the last 30 days,
12:44it's an 0-94 ISO
12:46and a 3-0-9
12:46weighted on base percentage
12:47to right-handed batters.
12:48So as much as you like
12:49Vladdy and Springer and Clement,
12:52the numbers really don't pan out
12:53because look at the rest
12:54of the roster here.
12:55You're not even going to get
12:56a single left-handed batter
12:57anticipated in the lineup today
12:59going up against the Oakland,
13:00excuse me,
13:00the A starter at this point.
13:02So I go under.
13:03You flip it over to the other side.
13:04Jose Barrios is on the mound.
13:06Quality pitcher,
13:06but it actually has struggled
13:07against left-handed batters.
13:09But again tonight,
13:09only possibly three left-handed batters.
13:11The one guy that I do expect
13:13to do some damage
13:14at the top of the lineup
13:14where you want to take him
13:15for maybe a base hit,
13:16maybe for a run,
13:17an RBI,
13:17or even a home run,
13:18it's Lawrence Butler.
13:1981 at-bats against
13:20right-handed pitching,
13:21excuse me,
13:22over the past 30 days.
13:23A .389 weighted on base percentage
13:25and an ISO of .263.
13:26He'll probably get
13:27four to five at-bats tonight,
13:28but everybody else
13:29in that lineup
13:29leaves a lot to be desired here.
13:31More leaning towards an under
13:32than anything in this game.
13:33A four-game set
13:34where Toronto try to get off
13:36to a good start
13:37with Jose Barrios on the bump.
13:39PRS,
13:39the Blue Jays right now
13:40a game below .500.
13:41The Rays are a game above .500.
13:44Really everybody else
13:45in the American League East
13:46is struggling outside
13:47of the New York Yankees
13:48fiddling around .500.
13:50Right now the Yanks
13:51who have played great baseball
13:52winning 16 of their last 20
13:54have already opened up
13:55a seven-game lead
13:56for the top spot
13:57in the division.
13:58TV Tom up next.
14:00.
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