Braves vs. Mets: Analyzing Holmes vs. Canning Tonight

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00:00The ending of a four-game set and our only game in the evening hours tonight in Major League Baseball.

00:07It's Griffin Canning in the New York Mets, Grant Holmes in the Atlanta Braves on the other side.

00:12Minus 112, the ever-so-slightly favored number backing New York with a total of eight and a half.

00:20Donnie, it's still supposed to be warm tonight here in the greater New York City area.

00:24Not nearly as hot and humid as the record-setting days earlier this week.

00:28We've seen some offense in the last two games at Citi Field.

00:32What do we see here in the fourth and final between Atlanta and New York?

00:37It's certainly a fun handicap to go through because if you take a look at Grant Holmes, his last 30 days here,

00:41basically he's number two pitcher on the card today.

00:4426 and a third innings pitch at 376 ERA, which isn't great, but that XFIP number is 2.76.

00:49That's spectacular.

00:50If we take a look at some non-analytical numbers and say, okay, his last 51 at-bats,

00:54how about the ISO power numbers against? 209 to lefties. That's high.

00:57How about the weighted-on-base percentage? That's 370. That's high.

01:01Decent K rates there, but he has really handled right-handed batters.

01:04But if we look at that Mets lineup, one through six tonight, Lindor, Nimmo, Soto, Alonzo, McNeil,

01:09and Vientos, all high ISO power numbers and weighted-on-base percentages against right-handed pitching.

01:14The same thing we looked at yesterday. It worked out in spades there for New York because they plated seven runs.

01:18Here's the interesting part about the handicap because forget about the pitcher on the opposite side of Griffin Canning.

01:22Let's just take a look at Grant Holmes because theoretically, he's a better pitcher than Canning is,

01:26at least the XFIP, and by a decent margin here.

01:29But if we're looking at the season, right, you want to look at these splits at home.

01:33In 2025, how about an XFIP number for Grant Holmes at 2.73? Spectacular.

01:38How about on the road this year? 4.87. Just about doubles it here.

01:42He's much more comfortable at home than on the road.

01:45But if you want to really get technical in some of these analytical splits and where you would attack here,

01:49away to lefties for Grant Holmes as a right-handed pitcher, that XFIP number is a 5.40.

01:55So my attack point, once again, will be the left-handed batters in the lineup and how many you can stack through.

02:00Because the Mets are looking at Lindor as a switch hitter, that's a lefty.

02:03Nimmo, that's a lefty. Soto, that's a lefty. McNeil, that's a lefty.

02:06Beatty, that's a lefty. And Mariso is a switch hitter.

02:08That's six out of the nine batters tonight, Ben, we're looking at from the left side,

02:12which is really where Grant Holmes struggles on the road particularly and on the season itself.

02:17So for me, maybe a sneaky team total on the Mets against a good pitcher that's coming in around 4.5

02:22and a plus 100 number here on that team total is my direction I'd like to go.

02:26I'm not trusting Griffin Canning all that much, but I do think the Mets, once again,

02:30have a solid night on the mound against a pitcher that most people think might be able to shut down the Mets lineup.

02:35But just reading on a fun handicap on the road against lefties, that's his struggles.

02:39You got some good lefties with some good numbers tonight for the New York Mets.