Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Pivetta vs. Kelly Matchup Preview

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00:00We have a better idea out of what we are getting today

00:03from Nick pitching Pavetta, the starter for San Diego.

00:07Total seven and a half.

00:08Merrill Kelly gets the nod for the Snakes on the other side.

00:12Minus 130, that price in favor of the Padres.

00:15What's the play at Petco?

00:17Well, I got to tell you, this is an interesting one

00:19because here's how we explain it.

00:20You take a look over the past two months here,

00:22Nick Pavetta's XFIP minus, which is 88,

00:24an XFIP number of 3.55.

00:26You love to see that.

00:27You take a look at Merrill Kelly's even better.

00:29How about a 75 XFIP minus and a 3 XFIP?

00:32Like, boy, that's a stone cold under.

00:34You're in San Diego.

00:35That's typically an under ballpark.

00:37Let me explain to you what these offenses have been doing

00:39against these respective pitchers who are right-handed batters.

00:42You look at the last 30 days for Arizona,

00:44and let's just say Quetel Marte is back in the lineup

00:46after being scratched yesterday.

00:47That's seven out of the nine batters plus

00:49in weighted on base percentage and ISO power numbers

00:52against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days.

00:54You take a look at here at San Diego's lineup,

00:56which technically I don't like all that much.

00:58And Merrill Kelly has been a good pitcher,

01:00struggling a little bit against lefties over the past month.

01:02But you have, again, excuse me, seven of the nine batters here

01:07with weighted on base percentages at a plus number against Merrill Kelly.

01:11So you have two good pitchers XFIP-wise in a pitcher's ballpark,

01:15but two lineups that absolutely love to slug right-handed pitching.

01:20That's a hard handicap.

01:21It is.

01:21Usually pitching actually will wear that out.

01:24But I got to tell you,

01:25if every batter in the lineup is getting solid swings,

01:28hey, why not an over?

01:29Why can't we get another one?