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00:00Mark's in a conversation that Donnie and I had earlier this week the head-to-head maybe two-player
00:05race already here before we get to the month of July for the American League MVP award and from
00:11when Donnie and I had this discussion just two days ago the odds continuing to move in the gap
00:18that Aaron Judge once had to win his third AL MVP award in the last four years again starting to
00:25dwindle when you compare it to the number on Big Dumper of course that is Cal Raleigh out there
00:32in Seattle neither guy has hit a home run since we last discussed these odds Cal Raleigh still
00:37leading all of Major League Baseball with 32 but you know just a couple of weeks ago Aaron Judge
00:43was minus 20,000 to win the American League MVP honor for a third time in four years that number
00:50still strong minus money but nine but minus 950 what do you make of this potentially two-player
00:57race to win that AL MVP hardware uh when we sat here you know what we call it 26 short days ago
01:05uh as we hit June 1st uh I wouldn't have thought that there was another player on the planet who
01:11could have taken the MVP award away from Aaron Judge well a very human 265 batting average in the month
01:17of June with just seven home runs uh watching his team plummet and not being able to score
01:23certainly is the reason why Cal Raleigh who deserves all the credit in the world for the surge that he's
01:28put together in the month of June uh why we now have a two-man race that Aaron Judge is going to have to
01:33try and win back now look I don't think that for all of the bluster that Cal Raleigh has bought that
01:39when we put together the rest of this 162 game sample size that he's going to end up overtaking Aaron Judge
01:45because Aaron Judge will actually start to you know put Judge like numbers up again I mean you saw
01:50the 364 batting average after 265 that was down from 415 which he was batting by the end of May
01:56right I mean so those numbers are going to be really hard for Judge to sustain over 162 games
02:02because it's hard to hit 400 it's incredibly hard to hit 400 that said I still think Judge has a lot
02:08more good baseball left in him and a lot more home runs that he's going to hit and so when you look at
02:12these two guys side by side I think there's more pressure on Raleigh to be able to keep this up as
02:17a relatively unknown commodity against the monster in the aura that is Aaron Judge than necessarily the
02:22other way around Judge is going to continue to hit and continue to put up high popping numbers
02:25and unfortunately and DRS will agree with me here some of this is going to boil down to where their
02:30team finishes if Seattle fades and Cal Raleigh ends up missing the postseason some idiotic voters are
02:36going to hold that against him whereas if Aaron Judge wins the American League East and they they have
02:40the number one seed some voters are going to give him a plus for that that's stupid it's not the way
02:44the vote's supposed to be it's an individual award doesn't matter what their team does but nonetheless
02:48that's going to happen so it's going to be a fun race to watch down the rest of the stretch
02:52it is going to be a good fun race to watch here and I'm also waiting for those summer months which
02:56obviously we're in right now where Aaron Judge does go on a tear and sort of says you know what I'm
03:00probably going to lead the league at home runs once again which would knock Cal Raleigh out because I think
03:04the pathway to victory forget about the teams making the playoffs themselves is Cal Raleigh to do
03:09something special I don't know 55 plus home runs where Judge doesn't get the 45 and gives them the
03:13advantage but if Aaron Judge is going to post a number let's just say a batting average of 340 or
03:17higher and somewhere around 45 to 55 home runs he's probably going to win that and I do agree with the
03:23market analysis where minus 20,000 was crazy with four months left to play an injury could derail you
03:28one player getting hot it's sort of leveling off but I do think Aaron Judge being the favorite rightfully
03:32so being around a minus 800 or 750 more palatable than where we see it at a minus 150 right now so if we
03:38equate this and say all right National League here Shohei Ohtani now back to pitching on the mound
03:43he's a minus 550 favorite to win the NL MVP over Pete Crow Armstrong Juan Soda and Ronald Acuna Jr.
03:50For me I even think Ohtani should be even a higher favorite than Aaron Judge right now because he's
03:54back to pitching here and I just don't see Pete Crow Armstrong hitting 55 home runs even if he plays
04:00in Wrigley Mark how are you playing out the National League field as opposed to the American League field
04:04I would look at it this way and this may surprise you but if there's a world where Ronald Acuna leads the
04:16Atlanta Braves back to the postseason given how poorly they've played to this point it's going to
04:24garner a lot of attention for him granted again he missed the first month plus season so he would have
04:30to have something approaching 40 home runs in about 120 right 110 games whatever it may be that he would
04:37play and when you extrapolate that the analytic nerds will turn around and go well if he played 162
04:43he would have had 65 home runs and he would have driven on 157 runs whatever it may be and that's
04:49enough to sway the nerd portion of the voting base in his favor but the Braves have to end up you know
04:54taking back the American the National League East or at least at a minimum not being the last wild
05:00card being firmly in the postseason that's a huge ask because I don't really trust the Braves to do it
05:06but if you know obviously I'm not going to sit here and lay 550 on Shoei Otani but to look at the guys
05:12that are sitting there the only one that's appealing to me in reality is Ronald Acuna Jr. I don't think
05:18Soto is going to put together a good enough campaign despite offensively the numbers are not going to be
05:22pretty enough particularly from a batting average standpoint that's going to hurt him
05:24uh the two guys from the Cubs are going to cannibalize one another and that just leaves
05:28Ronald Acuna is the one guy who can do something special and lead the Braves to the postseason
05:32again he's not going to win the award but just a quick shout out to James Wood 55 to 1 being their
05:38top five in RBIs this year for the Washington Nationals who were blanked yesterday by pitching
05:44Pavetta a couple of great pitching performances and pitchers holding down the opposition with a goose egg
05:50ultimately you know we're trying to make a race for two guys that are heavily favored to win their
05:56second consecutive MVP awards judge minus 950 Otani minus 550 you can parlay those together on the
06:04FanDuel Sportsbook that two-leg parlay minus 327 ultimately when all is said and done this year
06:11in Major League Baseball will that minus 327 hit I mean look I'm not ever going to bet minus 327 in a parlay
06:21that's just asking about it that said it probably is it probably is gonna hit I mean that's that's the
06:28reality of it um you know I think Otani is actually I would actually flip the odds I think Otani should be a
06:35heavier favorite than judges at this point in time um just because again once he starts pitching
06:40and starts doing so regularly again the voters are gonna sit there and go well now he's doing two
06:46things there's no way we can give it to anybody else and it's a fait accompli again I still think
06:50there's a world where Raul as Donnie said has more home runs and and is a better offensive player
06:54so how far away are you right now from flushing queens
06:59uh probably about 12 months well let's talk about the Mets and the Braves up next here on the early
07:08line live right here on the early line on sports grid we win was in continuously he's pretty close
07:15right now to Queens his normal home in Atlanta who better to talk about than the fourth and final game
07:21of an interesting midweek set between the Braves and the Mets tonight at Citi Field well they focus
07:27quickly as you know on the New York Mets who on June 12th at 45 and 24 by a half game had the best
07:35record in Major League Baseball yes the Amazons did beat the Braves yesterday seven to three to snap a
07:41five game losing skid directly against Atlanta who entered yesterday dropping 10 of their last 11 but
07:48still it hasn't been a great back half of June for a once very proud organization in this month that
07:55really turned around their season at this time a year ago when you look at the New York Mets overall
08:02in the month of June sub 500 but again two and ten in their last 12 games still second best price to
08:09win the National League East the Phils have been blank two straight games out there in Houston so the Mets
08:14trail Philadelphia by just a half game for that top spot in the NL East a pretty good price to win that
08:20pennant at six to one and 11 to one to win the World Series you know based on what we have seen
08:26the last few weeks around New York has it altered your view on the overall ceiling for the Amazons
08:33the remainder of this season you're going to have these stretches in Major League Baseball over the
08:38course of a six-month season where you're just going to not do something well whether it's your
08:43starters your bullpen or in this case for the Mets it's been their lineup I mean there's seven they have
08:48the seventh fewest run scored of any team in June they have the fourth worst batting average of any
08:52team in the month of June they're not hitting the ball and this was a team that for the first two
08:56months of the year was one of the highest scoring teams in baseball but particularly on the road
09:01they're one of the highest scoring teams in baseball and winning games away from home is a really good
09:05sign of a team that can go win in the postseason and things have sort of cooled off you know you get to
09:10this point where two months in everybody starts to realize that's why they say you know don't really make
09:15any judgments about your team until Memorial Day well you got to get to the first two months of
09:18the season to figure out what you are only to find out in the third month what you thought about the
09:22first two months isn't exactly the case and that's exactly what happened in the Mets here so you know
09:26the other thing that's happened over the course of the past month in particular look at tonight's
09:30starter in Griffin Canning you know we all forgot that Griffin Canning was a guy who pitched last year
09:35for the Angels who couldn't get anybody out and was terrible because he fooled us all through the first
09:39two months the way he pitched and how good he was and he was getting a ton of run support but over his last
09:44three starts he's given up a combined 14 runs in just 19 and two-thirds or 14 and two-thirds innings
09:50pitched against the Nationals the Rays and the Phillies so the real Griffin Canning might have just stood up
09:56and turned around and showed everybody that hey this was sort of a little bit of a mirage what I put
10:00together for the first two months we'll find out tonight when he pitches against the Braves in a spot
10:05that I don't really like for the Mets uh being the fact that they snapped that five game losing streak
10:10to the Braves and finally got a win against them but tough spot here for the Mets tonight uh against
10:15Grant Holmes who is an up and down starter himself for for Atlanta I think the Mets are going to be
10:21fine when it's all said and done they're too good not to if Juan Soto and it's a big if if Juan Soto can
10:26get hot for a really long stretch um you know as we get why in August that's really going to help
10:32this team if he's hitting the rest of the lineup it's going to be better what's the future for the
10:36Mets for you Mark like even up to the trade deadline because the Mets are a good ball club
10:40and every major league baseball goes through the ebbs and flows you're hitting really well now you're
10:43not hitting now you're hitting but you're not pitching at this point where do they wind up at
10:47the trade deadline is that a deep pocket ownership group are they really going to extend to say you
10:50know what Sandy Alcantara come on down we'll see if we can rekindle that or is this a Mets team that
10:55you're probably just going to say you know what I built this team they're expensive this is what
10:59you're going to see throughout the summer months here outside of the Los Angeles Dodgers the only team
11:04that is willing to spend as much if not more is the New York Mets so I wouldn't be shocked to see
11:09them add more at the deadline this is a team again that needs to win a World Series he needs to do it
11:14soon I've said repeatedly and I've told everybody this throughout the entire NBA playoff season because
11:18people don't realize this the only thing that matters in the city of New York is winning a title
11:22when a title or the season is a failure those are the only two metrics in which teams pro teams in
11:27New York are judged by so that's where the Mets are right now there's an opportunity for them to add
11:31some more pieces to make this team better to secure an NLE's title to secure a home field advantage or
11:37whatever it may be they're going to do it they know they have to go out and be able to beat the
11:41Dodgers if they do that there's a good chance they'll win the World Series so they have to spend as heavy
11:45as the Dodgers do to do that an 11 to 1 price on the New York Mets to win that World Series
11:51championship fifth best number third shortest out of a team around the National League of course the
11:57Dodgers will and always remain an incredibly short favorite and the Dodgers now at 50 and 31 second
12:03team in the bigs to get to 50 wins first in the National League matching the Detroit Tigers for the
12:08best record in all of baseball just about two and a half weeks away from that all-star break around
12:14MLB all-star game coming on July 15th Zeno will you be there in Atlanta I'll be in Atlanta I'm not
12:21going to go today you nuts I want no fun I don't take the enjoy your weekend elsewhere my friend
12:27thanks for being here more on the early lineup next Thursday is normally getaway day in Major League
12:34Baseball teams heading off to their weekend destination so if you are on the diamond and do
12:40not have the day off often you are playing earlier rather than later we've got a nine game sleep on this
12:47Thursday around MLB where eight of the nine in the afternoon hours in their respective location the
12:53only game in the evening hours primetime baseball up in Queens under the lights it's the New York Mets
13:00and the Atlanta Braves in the fourth and final game of their midweek set but DRS first we go to Houston
13:08where so far this week we have seen absolute pitchers duels between the Astros and the Phillies two teams
13:16still in front in their respective divisions Houston extending the lead in the American League West
13:20Philadelphia Phillies clinging on to a half game advantage over the New York Mets it is the third
13:27game of this set where Houston DRS has won the first two without allowing Philadelphia to register
13:35a single run from Revaldez beat the Phils on Tuesday one zip despite a good outing from Ranger Suarez
13:43and yesterday the Astros get the better ever so slightly of Zach Wheeler winning to zero tonight
13:50well Philadelphia has to face MLB's leader in ERA and Hunter Brown who is posting a 188 ERA right now
13:59on the other side for the Titans it's Christopher Sanchez minus 136 that number DRS in favor of the
14:06throws 2 p.m. Eastern time that scheduled first pitch and pay attention to that total seven is
14:13what it's showing six and a half is the live number currently on the FanDuel Sportsbook will it be
14:18another pitcher's duel today in H-Town yeah there's no way we're getting seven runs I mean let's be
14:23honest here the Philadelphia Phillies like getaway day they might as well just get out of town at this
14:27point right now now the interesting thing is is we told you so many times the Phillies will struggle
14:32with quality left-handed pitchers they couldn't touch the last two left-handed pitchers on the
14:36mound for the Houston Astros now Hunter Brown might be the best overall even I do still get that slight
14:40nod to frame Revaldez but at least he's a right-handed pitcher but having said that his last 30 days and
14:45around 30 innings pitchman a 1.153 ERA and an exit number of 2.87 the Phillies do hit right-handed
14:51pitchers much better but this is a quality quality right-handed pitcher and then on the other side you
14:56say all right well Houston's bats they're okay they actually hit left-handed pitching really well they
15:01couldn't touch Ranger Suarez outside of one solo home run in the eighth inning two nights ago and
15:06Sanchez has very good numbers so again today I look at these two rosters and say the better roster is
15:11Houston they'll probably wear down the Philadelphia Phillies this game will not get over seven runs
15:15because yesterday I thought Zach Lee would give you good performance they'll give up one earned run
15:19and they lost the game you tell me any pitcher gives up one earned run I'm going to bet that team
15:23every single time every single night but the Phillies are in an offensive funk against a good pitcher today
15:28they're not scoring that many runs the Bray excuse me the Astros probably eke out a couple runs to
15:33beat the Phillies once again today but if we're looking and saying what's the better wager how do
15:37we get like eight runs in this game I just don't see it two to one sounds like another final score
15:42today or at least those two runs come from the Houston Astros I don't think the Phillies win today I don't
15:48Houston hanging at home this weekend they will host the Chicago Cubs another divisional front
15:54under the Cubbies hammering the Cardinals yesterday eight zip we'll talk about the fourth and final
15:59game of that midweek set in just a moment again the Phillies only a half game in front of the New York
16:04Mets in the NL East the Astros DRS what a month of June it has been in H-Town 31 and 27 at the end of
16:12May started to turn things around in winning fashion from the middle portion of May through the end of
16:18that month but they are 16 and 6 the Stros in the month of June a 12 to 1 price to win the World Series
16:24third best around MLB uh sixth best around MLB third best for a team hailing from the American League
16:32and again Hunter Brown that 1-8-8 ERA after Paul Skeens got roughed up ever so slightly yesterday
16:38now the best in all of Major League Baseball the ending of a four-game set and our only game
16:46in the evening hours tonight in Major League Baseball it's Griffin Canning and the New York
16:51Mets Grant Holmes and the Atlanta Braves on the other side minus 112 the ever so slightly favored
16:58number backing New York with a total of eight and a half Donnie it's still supposed to be warm
17:04tonight here in the greater New York City area not nearly as hot and humid as the record-setting days
17:10earlier this week we've seen some offense in the last two games at Citi Field what do we see here
17:16in the fourth and final between Atlanta and New York it's certainly a fun handicap to go through
17:21because if you take a look at Grant Holmes his last 30 days here basically he's number two pitcher on
17:25the card today 26 and a third innings pitch at 376 ERA which isn't great but that XFIP number is
17:312.76 that's spectacular if we take a look at some non-analytical numbers and say okay his last 51 at
17:36bats how about the ISO power numbers against 209 to lefties that's high how about the weighted on base
17:41percentage that's 370 that's high decent K rates there but he has really handled right-handed
17:46batters but if we look at that and that's lineup one through six tonight Lindor Nimmo Soto Alonzo
17:51McNeil and Vientos all high ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages against right-handed
17:56pitching the same thing we looked at yesterday it worked out in spades there for New York because
17:59they played in seven runs here's the interesting part about the handicap because forget about the
18:03pitcher on the opposite side and Griffin Canning let's just take a look at Grant Holmes because
18:07theoretically he's a better pitcher than Canning is at least the XFIP and by a decent margin here
18:11but if we're looking at the season right you want to look at these splits at home when 2025 how about
18:17an XFIP number for Grant Holmes at 2.73 spectacular how about on the road this year 4.87 just about
18:24doubles it here he's much more comfortable at home than on the road but if you want to really get
18:28technical in some of these analytical splits and where you would attack here a way to lefties for
18:33Grant Holmes is a right-handed pitcher that XFIP number is a 5.40 so my attack point once again
18:39will be the left-handed batters and line up and how many you can stack through because the Mets are
18:43looking at Lindor is a switch hitter that's a lefty Nimmo that's a lefty Soto that's a lefty
18:47McNeil that's a lefty Beatty that's a lefty and Mariso is a switch hitter that's six out of the nine
18:52batters tonight Ben we're looking at from the left side which is really where Grant Holmes struggles
18:56on the road particularly and on the season itself so for me maybe a sneaky team total on the Mets against a
19:03good pitcher that's coming in around four and a half at a plus 100 number here on that team total
19:07is my direction I like to go I'm not trusting Griffin Canning all that much but I do think
19:12the Mets once again have a solid night on the mound against a pitcher that most people think
19:16might be able to shut down the Mets lineup but just reading on a fun handicap on the road against
19:20lefties that's his struggles you got some good lefties with some good numbers tonight for the New York
19:25Mets DRS the New York Mets trying to win this fourth and final game to split the four game set
19:32against the Braves of course they were swept in Atlanta last week our only night game of this
19:37Thursday slate the Mets have to take a small road trip to Pittsburgh tomorrow Atlanta returns home
19:44to host Philadelphia over the weekend just know that more plays around MLB next
19:49so the Mets and the Braves ending out a divisional rivalry this week in a four game midweek set in New
19:57York now we head to St. Louis we're under the arch we end out a four game set in a divisional rivalry
20:03as well first meeting this year between the Cardinals and the Cubbies St. Louis took the first two
20:09the Cubs respond yesterday behind some power including Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ hitting home runs
20:16Matthew Boyd sensational on the bump the Cubbies plank in the Redbirds to win their first game of this set
20:22eight zip and now looking for a four game split and DRS a great sign for Chicago with that two and a
20:29half game lead atop the National League Central to see their starter back on the mound today Shota
20:34Iminaga set to make his first start since the beginning of May returning off the IL and Chicago
20:41placed as the road favorite under the arch minus 136 the over understands at nine what can we anticipate
20:48out of Shota Iminaga's first start in nearly two months that's always the tough part about it right
20:54how long is it going to go is you have a short leash is at five innings is in 65 pitches 75 pitches
20:58those are always the tough things and also just the adrenaline that you get being back in Major League
21:02Baseball having said that if you're just looking to fade these pitchers in this environment I can't
21:07deny that it's 92 degrees at first pitch in the middle afternoon today in St. Louis with seven to
21:12eight mile an hour winds blowing out to dead center field it's perfect hitting conditions but we don't have a
21:17perfect requirement here on these pitchers just told you Iminaga is a name right and he has a
21:22background where he can be a very dominant pitcher you might get five innings pitch one earned run out
21:27of him today but I don't know so it's hard to sort of fall back and say that's exactly the way I want
21:31to go and he's going to give up runs just because he's coming back and isn't used to pitching in Major
21:35League Baseball if you will if you take a look at Palante on the mound today he's this is the interesting
21:39one which sometimes makes it tough to fight through as well his last 30 days 26 and a third innings
21:44pitched his ERA is over five fade material right away but his ex-fifth number is a 2.96 so getting
21:51just a little bit unlucky and also understand this when you deal with the heat and the humidity what
21:56do you want to be as a pitcher Ben you want to be a ground ball pitcher you take a look at you know
22:00Palante 69 percent in the last month have been ground balls that usually limits the damage on extra
22:06base hits it can hold you down because we like that Chicago Cubs lineup against right-handed pitching
22:10over the past month Hack Tucker Suzuki Armstrong and Bush all incredibly high numbers with the chance
22:15to do damage but today for me it's almost like a pass game it's like boy it's a shame to waste that
22:20type of weather but I don't want to fade Imanaga and I don't want to back Imanaga and Palante is a
22:24pretty good pitcher which means you might lean yourself to an under then go hey this game ended up
22:28seven to four because everybody's hitting home runs because how great that hitting environment is
22:32it's a stay away game for me I wish it was different where you had two pitchers you can really
22:36club want to but not in this one today for me then five starts this year DRS for Shota Imanaga
22:42in his second in the bigs of course a sensational rookie campaign first year at Wrigley last year
22:48he is three and two with a 282 ERA in two starts he has given up five earned in both a total of 10
22:56in the six others he has not allowed more than two earned runs and in total he has only allowed four
23:03so Shota Imanaga the ace of this cubby staff is going to be big because Donnie that was one of
23:08our questions of course about Chicago and their overall outlook of being a true contender you lose
23:13Justin Steele early this year Shota Imanaga at the time banged up and injured if he can be back
23:19and the pitching can keep up the Cubs have the offense of course to be a legitimate threat around
23:24the National League but nobody in the NL better or has a shorter price than that of the LA Dodgers the
23:30first team in the National League to get to 50 wins Dodgers Tigers 50 and 31 tied for the best
23:36records in Major League Baseball and the Dodgers this week playing out at Coors Field against
23:41Colorado looking for the sweep minus 290 the price on LA today in the series finale against Colorado
23:49in Clayton Kershaw year number 18 on the bump just quickly DRS before we break down the game
23:55our producer extraordinaire Joe Frizzo highlighting this uh in our commercial break 2,992 strikeouts
24:03for Kirsch right now he will be Joe correct me if I'm wrong the 21st pitcher ever in Major League
24:10Baseball when he gets eight he will be the 20th ever in Major League Baseball when he gets eight more
24:15K's to get to 3,000 career strikeouts might that come today at Coors against the Rocks yeah I don't know
24:22if he's going to get what eight strikeouts today probably a little bit high here maybe 5-10 years
24:26ago yeah you know pencil him in for that he's probably going to mow down this lineup but always
24:30tougher pitching conditions to pitch in Colorado than let you say in Chavez Ravine good hitting
24:34conditions out there today 85 degrees it's an afternoon game win really blowing from right
24:38foul pole to left foul pole so won't have an impact which is a good sign now Austin Gomber
24:42this will be his third start of the season his first one against Atlanta how about five
24:46innings pitch and no earned runs given up in four strikeouts his next start which was at home
24:50against Arizona four and two-thirds innings pitched 12 hits nine earned runs three bombs
24:56and not a single strikeout the Dodgers should tee off today maybe look at a guy like Tommy Evans
25:02this is Shohei Otani home run
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