MLB Tuesday Best Bets: Yankees vs. D-backs Showdown

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00:00baseball, baseball, baseball, baby. It is a Tuesday in the

00:03Major League Baseball schedule has a decent slate laid out. No

00:06afternoon games today all the way through. Most teams have

00:08already had their home openers or if not, they're not going to

00:11take place today or at least not in the afternoon. Yesterday,

00:14my Philadelphia Phillies picked up a victory yesterday but

00:16that's inconsequential. That's not what we're talking about

00:18today. Even though I would like to talk major Phillies action

00:21because the Atlanta Braves not having a good open to the

00:24season. I tell you who is having a good open to the

00:26season. It's the New York Yankees and it's their bats and

00:28they're home today. Burns versus Warren. If we look at

00:32the FanDuel Sportsbook, the opening number was a minus

00:34one away price here as a favorite towards the Yankees.

00:36Slight if that basically a pick them and today across the

00:39board, it still looks like it's going to be a pick them.

00:41Eights at the opening number for a total. Still currently

00:44sitting live at the FanDuel Sportsbook at eight runs here.

00:47Arizona, New York Yankees, initial thoughts for you, Mark

00:50Zinno. I mean, I don't know how much I trust the Yankee

00:56starter, Chase Warren tonight. That's be the biggest concern

01:01for me. Will Warren has been bad. Corbin Burns has got

01:08plenty of experience pitching against the Yankees last year

01:11as a member of the Orioles and if you go back to what he did

01:16last year, I feel like he was pretty successful against the

01:18Yankees. Yeah, he had a 245 ERA, 11 innings, gave up just

01:22three runs and struck out 15. So now granted he didn't win

01:27either of the two starts he had against him. However, he can

01:31get the Yankees out. He held him to a 162 batting average

01:35again in his 11 innings of work over two starts. So I would

01:42crazy as it sounds. I mean, you know, Arizona feels like, you

01:44know, the plus one and a half feels like the way you'd want

01:46to go here. If you ask me. Yeah, you're lining this up too.

01:50You look at the eight and a half, which it says on the

01:52graphics actually sitting at eight live cooler temperatures

01:55here in New York City, 47 degrees at first pitch here and

01:59obviously it is a game that's going to take place at night

02:01that'll probably dip a little bit lower, but it is blowing

02:03out at around eight to 10 miles an hour to that short porch in

02:05right field. Seeing how the Yankees have attacked the

02:08baseball, particularly at home to open the season. Does that

02:10give you a pause with the eight runs at this point? You just

02:12figure that Burns knows the Yankees will be able to

02:15navigate. Maybe the Arizona bats will stay cool here on the

02:17East Coast. Yeah, that and I mean, there there is some

02:24thought that there has to be some regression from the

02:25Yankees lineup after what they did against Milwaukee, right?

02:30Like that's the anomaly scoring 32 runs in two games is

02:34probably has little to do with Torpedo bats and everything

02:37else. And other than just a strange statistical, you know,

02:41anomaly that would come back down to earth. And that said

02:45too. I mean, you know, Arizona played four games against the

02:48Cubs and three of the four of those had at least eight runs

02:51or more in it or nine runs or more in it. So they've scored a

02:55lot of runs as well. Baseball regression is a real thing. And

02:59I know the Yankees have had 15 home runs in their first three

03:02games, but I don't know that that is going to continue here

03:06tonight. And so maybe maybe just, you know, some natural

03:08regression brings it back to the pack. Yeah, I tell you

03:11what's interesting too is because again, the Yankees

03:13bats have been absolutely on fire and take a look. Okay,

03:15the Yankees are at home and roughly a pick them price and

03:18oh, that's what it's got to be high. No, it's only eight

03:20sitting live. So that buyback here where the numbers are

03:22being trusted by the odds maker. We'll see if that holds

03:25up tonight at Yankee Stadium in New York. Now, if we go from

03:28East Coast out the West Coast, we're taking a look at the Los

03:31Angeles Dodgers with a 10 10 start taking on the Atlanta

03:34Braves, the undefeated Dodgers and the winless Atlanta Braves

03:37second time around through the rotation. Chris Sale is going

03:39to get another crack at the 2025 season. This line opened

03:43up as a favorite overnight for the Dodgers at minus 122. It

03:47now sits at minus 138. So it is rising in favor for the

03:51Dodgers sooner than later. The Braves have to win. The

03:54question is going to be is do the Braves actually get some

03:57base hits with runners in scoring position score more

03:59than one run, which you need to take down the Dodgers. How do

04:02we feel about this line hovering under 140 here? I'm

04:05going to see on that graphic out of 162 price some violent

04:09movements this morning. Yeah, I mean again, you have the the

04:14National League Cy Young from last year and Chris Sale and a

04:17lefty going up against a Dodgers team that is starting

04:21Dustin May. I don't know if it means anything to you about how

04:24much a carryover is last year. The Dodgers were number one in

04:28Major League Baseball in OPS and WRC plus against left-handed

04:34pitching. They absolutely tormented left-handed pitching

04:36last year. So Chris Sale obviously lefty but also again,

04:42I mean the Braves have to win a game eventually, you know, the

04:45smartest thing to do here is take the Braves with the plus

04:48one and a half and hope to get out of there. Maybe the Dodgers

04:50win the thing for three if the if the Braves don't win it

04:52outright, right? And I mean you at some point in time, the

04:56Braves plus one and a half is going to cash here as they

04:58continue to be a dog. Yeah. And how do you play out that's

05:01because again, we're looking for a correction in the season

05:04for the end of Braves. They're not as bad as what they're

05:06shown just playing elite competition. Is that a choice

05:08where you just bet the Braves because getting a good number

05:10at this point, but when you say good number like I expected

05:13just like this morning where the Dodgers were in that 160

05:16range, they've plummeted down. So a lot of people have the

05:18same intuition like this might be the spot where the Braves

05:20with sale in the mound have a good shot at knocking off the

05:23Dodgers, but riding streaks right so many times you do in

05:26sports Dodgers streaking one way Braves the other way. Yeah

05:30again, sometimes you just play the number right. What's the

05:32old adage you play numbers not teams. So you remove the jersey

05:35and the hat and figure out what it is and look at the

05:37number and it should tell you everything you need to know

05:39that the Braves would be the side to play here. So it would

05:41be Atlanta or pass. I don't think you should lay with the

05:44Dodgers certainly and not at that price not a minus 160. But

05:49again, how much do you trust the fact that the Dodgers who

05:52hammer left-handed pitching won't do the same to Chris Sale?

05:56Yeah, anticipated starting lineup tonight there for the

05:58Dodgers. Otani, Betts, Hernandez, Smith, Edmond, Muncy,

06:01Hernandez, Rojas and Pajes in that lineup. And then we take a

06:04look at the Atlanta Braves, Harris, Riley, Olsen, Ozuna,

06:07Albies, Baldwin, De La Cruz, Kelenic and Arce in the lineup

06:10tonight sooner than later. They have to start hitting them

06:13again. You're playing in ultimate, you know, pitchers

06:15ballpark for say San Diego still nice weather. We get it,

06:17but that is a pitchers ballpark. Same thing with Los

06:20Angeles. So if you are struggling, you're going to get

06:22a really good bullpen for the Dodgers. It's just a matter of

06:24you must attack that starting pitcher. So for me, if I looked

06:26at a way to play the Braves where it's like, okay, maybe I

06:29don't know if they win this baseball game, but I know they

06:31won't be in it unless they score runs. I haven't checked

06:33there, but their team total over the first five innings has

06:36to be extremely low. And that would be my attack point where

06:38I wouldn't be surprised if I don't say a breakout, but two

06:42runs by the Braves in the first inning, maybe tacking on one of

06:44the third or fourth inning, four runs before you get to the

06:46fifth, before you get into that nasty Dodgers bullpen might be

06:49a way to certainly play this game. But it is interesting to

06:52see that the Atlanta Braves win list on the season. The

06:54Dodgers have not having a loss on the season. This line opened

06:57up at that minus 122 minus 124 price blast up to the 165 range

07:02and now dips back into the 130s here at the fans of Sportsbook.

07:05You're going to get that a lot early in the regular season of

07:07Major League Baseball in the month of March. And now finally

07:10into the month of April, more games to take a look at Major

07:13League Baseball on the way. Next includes Cleveland and San

07:16Diego.

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