Trump urges Israel not to bomb Iran amid ceasefire

CGTN Europe

CGTN Europe discussed this and more with  Security Analyst Elijah J Magnier

Transcript

00:00Let's take you next to Brussels and talk to our guest, Elijah Magnier, the security analyst.

00:07Elijah, welcome back. Good to see you.

00:09Let's pick up on what our correspondent in Washington was talking about, Mr. Trump, clearly furious.

00:15But his critics will say, they'll point out, that this was a gamble.

00:20The United States was warned that intervention in the Middle East is unpredictable.

00:25And unpredictable, it's turned out to be, hasn't it?

00:30Thank you for having me.

00:32Well, in a sort of way, yes.

00:35But I think we have reached the end of the escalation in preparation for another round in the future.

00:43Because we don't know if Iran is going to maintain a nuclear enrichment uranium.

00:51And if it has still the centrifuge to produce it.

00:56Iran has more than 9,300 kilogram of different percentage of uranium, including 408, 60 percent uranium.

01:08Because we don't have information about the consequences of the American and the Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear site,

01:18there needs time when we can verify that from the Iranian side with the result of what they're going to produce next.

01:26And if they're going to go toward a nuclear bomb or to improve their missile capability.

01:32However, I think this round is over.

01:36We now obviously have lots of aerial images of the damage in Iran.

01:41In your judgment, too early to say perhaps, but has Iran's nuclear capability been disabled?

01:48And if not, where might Iran's enriched uranium be?

01:54Iran will never enrich uranium outside its country.

02:00The Iranian nuclear knowledge is in the head of the Iranians.

02:06Israel and America are very much aware of that.

02:09This is why the Israelis killed more than a dozen nuclear scientists,

02:14because they understand that Iran can very quickly rebuild all its centrifuge.

02:20We know that the Americans informed the Iranians about their incoming bombardment of Fordo-Nathans and Esfahan.

02:31Well, Esfahan is very relevant.

02:34The most important one was Fordo.

02:36We know that the Iranians have three uranium mines.

02:39We know that the Iranians secured the uranium they have because the director of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, was complaining

02:51because, first, there are no additional radiation coming from all the sites that were bombed.

02:58Secondly, because he said removing the 60 percent uranium, the 408 kilogram, is a violation of the IAEA,

03:10and he wanted to inspect them.

03:12However, the Iranian parliament and speaker, Galibach, announced that Iran will not allow the inspectors to come, at least for now.

03:22So we know the capability, maybe, practically speaking, has been degraded in terms of weeks or months,

03:31but we certainly know that Iran has its mines, the huge stockpile, and also the knowledge.

03:39In your judgment, then, what happens next in the coming days and weeks?

03:44Well, both sides will prepare.

03:47First of all, the Israelis will understand that the only way to remove the threat that comes from Iran

03:55is to change the ruling system, because as long as there is this ideology and this animosity toward Israel

04:03and the support of all the allies in the Middle East,

04:08the Iranians will continue pursuing an improvement of their missile capability.

04:13We've seen at least four or five types of different missiles that for Israel was impossible to intercept.

04:21They are hypersonic, with multi-warhead, not cluster bomb, completely different.

04:27It's a technology that exists only in a few countries around the world.

04:31And we have seen how Iran is going to learn from all the mistakes, but also the Israelis.

04:36And because the sabotage operation in Iran were very efficient, I think the Israelis will start cleaning their home

04:45and the Israelis will start increasing the infiltration to try and change something in the ruling system.

04:53But at the same time, the ceasefire is very unclear.

04:59Will Israel retain the possibility and the right to go and bomb Iran whenever it wants,

05:05like it is doing in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria?

05:09Or will this ceasefire hold and how long?

05:13There are many unanswered questions.

05:15I think the clock is ticking now.

05:18Elijah, good to see you.

05:19Thank you for that.

05:20Elijah Magnier, the security analyst, talking to us from Brussels.

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