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Money Explainers
  • 23/6/2025
Unpack the demographic shifts threatening Social Security. The U.S. population is getting older. See how this impacts government benefits.
Understanding the factors pushing Social Security towards depletion.
#SocialSecurityFuture. #AgingPopulation. #EconomicChallenges.

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00:00Social Security, a cornerstone of financial stability for millions, is facing an unprecedented
00:06challenge. Its trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2034, barring congressional action.
00:14But what's driving this alarming trend? The answer lies in fundamental demographic shifts
00:19within the United States. The nation's population is aging rapidly, placing immense pressure on a
00:25designed with the expectation that a robust workforce would support its retirees. This
00:32delicate balance between contributors and beneficiaries is now significantly impacted
00:37by three key factors. First, more and more people are reaching retirement age. Second,
00:44relatively fewer individuals are entering the workforce. And third, people are living longer
00:50into retirement, extending the period during which they draw benefits. The Census Bureau's broad
00:56dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependent-age people those younger than 15
01:02or older than 65 for every 100 working-age people, highlights this imbalance. This ratio surged by 13%
01:10from 2007 to 2023, despite a decrease in the younger-than-15 cohort during that same period.
01:18This indicates a growing burden on the working population. The aging of the population is
01:25largely a consequence of shifting birth and death rates over time. The national birth rate has been
01:31on a decline since 1990. While immigration does contribute to the workforce, nearly 20% of all workers
01:38immigrated to the U.S. as of 2024. The lowering birth rate is significantly altering the overall age
01:45distribution. This creates a ripple effect. Fewer births mean smaller age cohorts entering the
01:51workforce in future decades. Consider the baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, a period of
02:00exceptionally high birth rates. As this large generation has aged, the composition of the
02:06population has dramatically shifted. New births peaked in 1957, with those individuals turning 65 in
02:142022. During this time, the share of the population aged 65 and older nearly doubled, from 9.0% to 17.2%.
02:25The SSA anticipates that the number of Americans aged 65 and older will continue to grow by 26% over the next
02:3412 years, from approximately 61 million in 2023 to about 77 million in 2035. This translates directly
02:43to more people becoming eligible for Social Security benefits and proportionally fewer individuals
02:50contributing to the funds. Compounding the impact of declining birth rates is the fact that the death
02:56rate has also been decreasing throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, extending life expectancy.
03:02From 1959 to 1961, 65-year-olds were expected to live another 14 years, to age 79. By 2022,
03:14this projection increased to another 19 years, to age 84. Larger cohorts of Americans living longer lives
03:21add significant pressure to a Social Security system that has transitioned from decades of surpluses
03:27to recent deficits. Without congressional intervention, the demographic realities paint a challenging picture
03:34for the future of Social Security. Money Explainers

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