- 6/23/2025
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00:00Because I wonder where you would place the Golden State Warriors
00:05in the new NBA title odds for next year.
00:11So here's how we'll do it.
00:13First of all, I wonder, there are four teams.
00:18Four teams.
00:19How many?
00:20Four.
00:21Single-digit odds to win the title next year.
00:24A, I want to know if you can name those four.
00:27But then, beyond that, I'd like to know if you can name all of the teams
00:32that have better title odds than the Golden State Warriors.
00:37There are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, five, ten of them.
00:43Ten teams.
00:44Ten?
00:44Ten, says Vegas.
00:47Ten teams with better odds to win the title next year than the Golden State Warriors.
00:52Would you like to give it a whirl?
00:53I would love to.
00:54All right.
00:54Who do you think is the title favorite next year?
00:56Probably the Thunder, because that's what we do, right?
01:00Who do you think is the clear-cut second favorite?
01:04The clear-cut second favorite?
01:06Well, I'd just say, like, they're not tied with anybody.
01:08They are the second favorite to win the title.
01:12I would say Cleveland?
01:18New York?
01:19Oh, I'm sorry.
01:20No, I'm sorry.
01:21Although, you did just name three of the top four.
01:25Thunder, Cavs, and Knicks both at 9-1.
01:28Someone else is at 8-1.
01:31Someone else is at 8-1.
01:34At Orlando?
01:35Come on, man.
01:38Oh, he's running cold.
01:39You've got to get the flavor of the moment.
01:41It's the Houston Rockets.
01:42Houston Rockets.
01:43Houston Rockets are now the second favorite to win this sucker.
01:46Okay.
01:47Yeah.
01:47So, there's your top four.
01:49Thunder, Rockets, Cavs, Knicks.
01:51There are six other teams with better title odds than the Warriors.
01:56Can you name them, and I'll give you one stripe.
01:58Oh, boy.
01:58All right.
01:59Well, Denver's got to be one of them.
02:00Minnesota's got to be one.
02:05The, I mean, I guess Boston, even without Tatum.
02:11Very good.
02:12Man.
02:15That's three.
02:16There are three more.
02:17Three more?
02:18Three more.
02:19The Clippers?
02:22Oh, sorry.
02:23There's your strike.
02:24I'm sorry.
02:25There's your strike.
02:25The Clippers right behind the Warriors, actually.
02:28Oh, boy.
02:28Sitting there in the 12 hole.
02:30The Warriors are in the 11 hole.
02:32You got three more, but you cannot have any more strikes.
02:35I'm sorry.
02:36Yeah, it's risky.
02:37It's so tough.
02:38I mean, I don't even know where I would go.
02:42The Pacers, I suppose?
02:45That is correct.
02:46That is correct.
02:46Even without Tyrese Halliburton.
02:49Well, well, well, well, well, well.
02:51You saw that email.
02:53Well, that email came in yesterday.
02:55I don't know.
02:56I don't know what hour it came in.
02:58Gotcha.
02:59I don't know if it was pre or post Halliburton injury.
03:02Looking at a different source, the Pacers are way, way, way down.
03:07Yeah, they're way, way, way down.
03:08Okay.
03:09But at this hour, the Pacers were still in there.
03:12Man.
03:12All right.
03:12There are two others, though, that are unaffected by last night.
03:15I mean, Dallas?
03:17They're getting Cooper Flagg.
03:18He's pretty awesome.
03:21Oh, no.
03:22Sorry, the Dallas Mavericks are coming in at 33 to 1.
03:25We'd like to thank you for playing our game.
03:27We do have a copy of the home version.
03:30Oh, yeah.
03:30I like that on my way out.
03:31We have lovely parting gifts for you.
03:33Go over here and see either Mark or Lucas.
03:36I used to get rice-a-roni as a parting gift.
03:39Probably get a bobblehead or something there in the other room.
03:42Some book that somebody wrote.
03:44I'll give you my trophy.
03:45Yeah, it's great to give you last year's trophy.
03:47Can you take your picture out of here, please?
03:49No, that's specifically to annoy Shasky, so I'm leaving it.
03:53All right.
03:53All right.
03:53In that case, I'll allow it.
03:55Give yourself a ding.
03:57If it's to annoy one of the other shows, that's totally fine by us.
04:00And it apparently bothers me less than it bothers him, so we'll keep it.
04:03All right.
04:03One of the other two, the Los Angeles Lakers are much better odds right now.
04:10What?
04:11Than the Golden State Warriors.
04:12The Lakers.
04:12And then this one, this one surprises me.
04:17And I can, again, these odds were post-Kevin Durant trade.
04:22The only reason I can think of this team being ahead of the Warriors
04:25is because they were thinking that this team was going to get Kevin Durant,
04:29but this team did not get Kevin Durant.
04:33The San Antonio Spurs.
04:35Ahead of the Warriors?
04:36Are ahead of the Warriors in title odds.
04:39Do they think they're getting Giannis or something?
04:42I mean, it's Spurs.
04:44Wambi and Fox, yeah.
04:45Yeah, it's a good player.
04:46And Castle.
04:46Yeah, good players.
04:48Good little team.
04:48But, like, they're not ready to go win a ring.
04:50They're babies.
04:51They're little wee little babies.
04:53Right.
04:53So, anyway.
04:55Yeah.
04:55But that's the current state of the title odds affairs with, yes, the Indiana Pacers now updating,
05:03dropping out of that, which means that the Warriors are in the 10 position.
05:06Okay.
05:07Which is, I don't know what to think of that.
05:11That's not terribly optimistic.
05:15No, but if you think about this year and where they wound up, they wound up essentially in
05:20a tie for fifth, right?
05:22Because they were one of four teams to win a round and then lose.
05:27So, they were in the final eight.
05:30Tied for not in the final four, yes.
05:32Right.
05:32So, tied for fifth.
05:33T5.
05:34Sure.
05:34Essentially, so they were, you know, T5 or they were eighth, whatever you want to put it.
05:39And so, next year they're 10th, which would indicate that their odds are, you know, less
05:44than they would be this year.
05:45And if you want to, like, extrapolate that out, if you have the 10th best odds, that would
05:50mean that you would make the playoffs and lose in the first round.
05:54And if I gave you...
05:55Essentially.
05:56If I gave you the same prop that I gave you before...
05:59Are we doing this?
06:00No, we're not doing it officially, but I asked you at least 15 times.
06:05Over-under Warriors, playoff wins at four and a half, and you were under, under, under,
06:11under, under, under, under, under, under, under, trade for Jimmy, it looks like it's
06:15working, and you went over.
06:17And they went over.
06:19They won five playoff games.
06:21Five and a half games.
06:21Whatever.
06:22They won five.
06:23And if I was going to give you that same prop right now, and again, we don't know about
06:27the draft, and the Warriors are picking in the second round on Thursday, and we don't
06:31know about free agency and Kaminga and all the rest of it, but...
06:34Yeah.
06:35Right now, your gut on the Warriors, if I gave you over-under four and a half wins in
06:40the playoffs next year, what would you say, Mark?
06:45Under.
06:46Under four and a half.
06:47Mm-hmm.
06:47Oh, man.
06:49And that's...
06:50That hurts me because you're an optimistic guy.
06:52I know, but I went under all year last year until I changed and went over.
06:57And you were wrong until you changed.
06:59Yeah, and I was wrong.
07:00That was wrong.
07:01Well, and then at least I changed, and then I got it right.
07:04But it was by a half game, and so it was close, and in the end, actually, it should
07:09be credit to you because you set the number right where it needed to be.
07:12The number was amazing.
07:13Yeah, it was amazing.
07:13Numbers are numbers, and that number was amazing.
07:15And it would have been better, though, if Steph hadn't gotten hurt.
07:17I'm confident they would have at least won another game or two.
07:20I don't know if they would have moved on.
07:21And my only answer to that, though, right now, we're sitting here in a moment where the Warriors,
07:26I don't know what they're going to do roster-wise.
07:29So that's number one.
07:31And number two is the Western Conference.
07:35I think I could argue with this Durant trade, even though he went from west to west, the west
07:40got better because one of their good teams got even better.
07:44So now that becomes yet another sort of top four candidate, and we talk about their title
07:51odds.
07:51That's bringing Eastern Conference teams in as well.
07:54I think the east, boy, you want to talk about doldrums.
07:58You think the west is better than the east now.
08:00Wait till next year with no Tatum, no Halliburton, and no Lillard, potentially no Giannis.
08:07I don't know where he's going to end up.
08:09If he'll stay in the east, if he'll stay with the Bucs, whatever.
08:12I know that Desmond Bain went over there, and people are digging Orlando.
08:16That's fine, but all of these teams in the west, from OKC to Houston to the Lakers to
08:22the Wolves to the Nuggets, and then the Clippers, and then the young up-and-coming teams like
08:27the Spurs.
08:28And the Mavs, yeah.
08:29Yeah, that's the only reason I would say that in this moment.
08:32In this moment, you're praying for such health, and then even if you get it, it's still going
08:37to be really hard.
08:39So that's why I'd say that today.
08:40Yep.
08:41Okay.
08:41I reserve the right to change my mind.
08:43Of course, and you can.
08:44I won't hold you to it.
08:46Oh, thank you.
08:46You know, the playoffs aren't for another, I don't know, 10 months?
08:49Yeah, they're a ways away.
08:51Yeah, we got time.
08:51We got a whole Super Bowl champion to crown first.
08:54Yeah.
08:54You know?
08:54Exactly.
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