The conflict with India over Kashmir, the crisis in the Middle East and the US-Iran tensions have once again put the army in the driver's seat in Pakistani politics. What does it mean for the nation's fragile democracy?
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00:00Pakistan's main opposition party, PTI, is hopeful that their jail leader and former
00:11Prime Minister Imran Khan would be released soon. It is easier said than done.
00:21Jailed ex-premier Imran Khan has once again urged his supporters to take to the streets
00:27to exert pressure on the country's rulers for his release.
00:34Similar attempts in the past to secure his release yielded no results.
00:42This time around, the task is even more difficult because the military establishment
00:46is enjoying a surge in popularity after the recent clashes with India over Kashmir.
00:57The military's image had taken a hit due to Khan's incarceration, which his supporters claim
01:04is politically motivated, and allegations that it meddled in the 2024 general elections.
01:10The military's image had taken a hit due to Khan's incarceration, which his supporters claim
01:20is politically motivated, and allegations that it meddled in the 2024 general elections.
01:30But days of fears military clashes with India last month once again put the generals in the driver's
01:36seat.
01:37Absolutely. After India's strike on May 6th and 7th night, I believe effective countermeasures taken
01:46by the military, security military, has absolutely changed their reputation among the masses and the
01:56population in Pakistan. And to my belief, it was because, not only because the effective countermeasure,
02:05but how DJI SPR has been communicating with people through, you know, back-to-back press conferences,
02:12and you know, taking the whole Pakistani public in trust. So I believe, though, this has contributed a lot.
02:21This is the best way of being held within the years, which has the last five years of the country.
02:26the violations, the firing, which is utterly firing, which is utterly firing,
02:33there are five civilians who have died, which have been a five-year-old.
02:42This is not a fault, without a complaint, without a complaint,
02:47this is not a fault.
02:49This is not a fault of Pakistan,
02:50this is not a fault of Pakistan,
02:52this is not a fault of Pakistan.
02:54That, however, does not mean that Khan has lost his support.
03:00He remains the country's most popular politician.
03:05I wanted to say that the country will end up with corruption.
03:09It's not a fault, it's not a fault,
03:12it's a fault that it's a fault for everyone,
03:15it's not a fault for everyone,
03:17it's not a fault for everyone,
03:18it's not a fault for the VIP culture.
03:20But the security issues Pakistan is confronting are not just related to India and Kashmir.
03:26The military generals have a lot on their plate.
03:29I paid a visit to Ekram Sehgal, a retired military official and defence analyst,
03:36to talk about these security challenges.
03:39In countries like Pakistan, the military will always be involved in politics.
03:44Imran Khan also has to understand that the army in a country like Pakistan has a role to play.
03:55Where you should define that role is where you have the political equation,
04:01that you give that space.
04:04The army has no business in politics, one side.
04:09But the army has to be involved.
04:12So what you should do is to have a common minimum programme.
04:17But why are Khan's party and supporters still hopeful about his release?
04:23Just over a month ago, they believed that US President Donald Trump could force the Pakistani military to set Khan free.
04:32When Khan was in power, he maintained good relations with Trump.
04:37hodou
04:43And the army tells them that the army had no force of external intervention or further.
04:48The army is not Megan.
04:50The army has no choice.
04:51I can face them to face them.
04:55Whether they are themselves or their behalf,
05:00so this is all the cases that we follow, the cases will be done and then we will be able to do it.
05:13Yes, we are sure that if it is Europe or US or any country or human rights or international media,
05:23The Trump administration, however, has not hinted anything which could tell us
05:37that its interests are allied with Khan or his PTI party.
05:43In his address to Congress in March, Trump lauded the incumbent Pakistani government
05:48headed by P.M. Shahbaz Sharif for capturing a key militant involved in the 2021 Kabul bombing.
05:56Tonight, I am pleased to announce that we have just apprehended the top terrorist responsible for that atrocity.
06:06And I want to thank especially the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster.
06:11It's a big day.
06:13During the brief India-Pakistan military escalation, the U.S. leader emphasized
06:18that he enjoyed good ties with both Indian and Pakistani leaders.
06:29Huma Bakai, a prominent international relations expert, told me
06:34why the U.S.'s interests look more aligned with the Pakistani militaries
06:39and P.M. Shahbaz Sharif's government rather than Khan.
06:43U.S. will see Pakistan as an ally in facilitating what it wants done in South Asia.
06:51South Asia is a focus again.
06:53We can see that.
06:54Aghwanistan is a focus again.
06:56Minerals are a focus again.
06:58And they seem comfortable with working with whoever is in power.
07:02And if whoever is in power has the establishment support,
07:07Republicans have a tradition to be comfortable with that.
07:10Experts in Pakistan explain to me why U.S.'s interests are closely tied
07:16to Pakistan's security establishment rather than civilian politicians.
07:22The ongoing crisis in the Middle East and the U.S.-Iran tensions mean
07:27that the Pakistani security apparatus has once again become important for Washington.
07:33The U.S. has held several rounds of talks with Iran to secure guarantees
07:41that Tehran wouldn't develop nuclear weapons.
07:47Trump has repeatedly warned the Iranian regime of military action should negotiations fail.
07:55Pakistan, which borders Iran, must keep an eye on the situation
07:59as any escalation between the U.S. and Iran could have a huge fallout for its own security.
08:07The only nuclear power among the Islamic states today with the means to deliver that is Pakistan.
08:17Right.
08:18And if at any time the military option is used,
08:24it will not be confined to Iran.
08:30It will also take out Pakistan.
08:33Right.
08:34Because not for any other reason.
08:36They would not like,
08:38let's say, what they will call rogue elements in Pakistan reacting.
08:43I met with Zia Ur-Rahman,
08:45a journalist who has covered security conflicts in Afghanistan and Iran extensively
08:50at Karachi's press club to know about his assessment.
08:54Currently, we are not seeing any direct implication of what is going on in the Middle East.
09:01But if the U.S. is involved in this relation with Iran,
09:05I think there will be more direct implication on Pakistan's security situation.
09:09Yeah, one thing is very clear that after the fall of Kabul in August 2021,
09:13Pakistan is facing several challenges.
09:16It is economic challenges, it is political chaos,
09:20and most importantly, it is security challenges.
09:22We have seen the rise of Pakistani militants,
09:25which is emboldened by the fall of Kabul.
09:27And we have seen the separatist groups gaining foothold in Bolivistan.
09:31And also amid this political chaos,
09:34I think entire responsibility comes on the Pakistani military
09:38to do something on it.
09:41But the reinforcement of the security establishment in Pakistan
09:46could mean further erosion of democratic and civilian supremacy
09:51in the South Asian country.
09:53Even prior to the clashes with India,
09:56the military had expended its power
09:58and extended its control over the country's politics
10:02and other spheres of life.
10:03I think that the presence and the control
10:08of the military establishment is so, so powerful.
10:14And it has controlled everything,
10:18has spread its, you know, claws all over.
10:22And they are the ones who actually are the decision makers
10:28and the people who actually control.
10:31So I don't think that the so-called democratic government
10:34has much possibilities for itself, you know,
10:39and they are controlled as well.
10:42It's a very dark time for Pakistan.
10:45In fact, probably in my life,
10:47I don't think I've seen such dark times
10:49that we've lived through all the martial laws.
10:51This is not martial law, but it seems so dark.
10:55I would say it's even worse.
10:57And then, of course, as you know,
10:58journalists are constantly picked up.
11:01You say something on people on Facebook have said
11:06very small, almost innocent kind of things
11:11and they have been arrested.
11:18It is unclear how much pressure
11:19the former PM Imran Khan and his party can exert
11:22on the military establishment in this scenario
11:25and whether his call for mass protest
11:27would force the rulers to set him free.
11:31For now, the security state in Pakistan
11:34appears to be on the rise.