Pakistan: 'Security state' on the rise amid regional tension

DW (English)

The conflict with India over Kashmir, the crisis in the Middle East and the US-Iran tensions have once again put the army in the driver's seat in Pakistani politics. What does it mean for the nation's fragile democracy?

Transcript

00:00Pakistan's main opposition party, PTI, is hopeful that their jail leader and former

00:11Prime Minister Imran Khan would be released soon. It is easier said than done.

00:21Jailed ex-premier Imran Khan has once again urged his supporters to take to the streets

00:27to exert pressure on the country's rulers for his release.

00:34Similar attempts in the past to secure his release yielded no results.

00:42This time around, the task is even more difficult because the military establishment

00:46is enjoying a surge in popularity after the recent clashes with India over Kashmir.

00:57The military's image had taken a hit due to Khan's incarceration, which his supporters claim

01:04is politically motivated, and allegations that it meddled in the 2024 general elections.

01:10The military's image had taken a hit due to Khan's incarceration, which his supporters claim

01:20is politically motivated, and allegations that it meddled in the 2024 general elections.

01:30But days of fears military clashes with India last month once again put the generals in the driver's

01:36seat.

01:37Absolutely. After India's strike on May 6th and 7th night, I believe effective countermeasures taken

01:46by the military, security military, has absolutely changed their reputation among the masses and the

01:56population in Pakistan. And to my belief, it was because, not only because the effective countermeasure,

02:05but how DJI SPR has been communicating with people through, you know, back-to-back press conferences,

02:12and you know, taking the whole Pakistani public in trust. So I believe, though, this has contributed a lot.

02:21This is the best way of being held within the years, which has the last five years of the country.

02:26the violations, the firing, which is utterly firing, which is utterly firing,

02:33there are five civilians who have died, which have been a five-year-old.

02:42This is not a fault, without a complaint, without a complaint,

02:47this is not a fault.

02:49This is not a fault of Pakistan,

02:50this is not a fault of Pakistan,

02:52this is not a fault of Pakistan.

02:54That, however, does not mean that Khan has lost his support.

03:00He remains the country's most popular politician.

03:05I wanted to say that the country will end up with corruption.

03:09It's not a fault, it's not a fault,

03:12it's a fault that it's a fault for everyone,

03:15it's not a fault for everyone,

03:17it's not a fault for everyone,

03:18it's not a fault for the VIP culture.

03:20But the security issues Pakistan is confronting are not just related to India and Kashmir.

03:26The military generals have a lot on their plate.

03:29I paid a visit to Ekram Sehgal, a retired military official and defence analyst,

03:36to talk about these security challenges.

03:39In countries like Pakistan, the military will always be involved in politics.

03:44Imran Khan also has to understand that the army in a country like Pakistan has a role to play.

03:55Where you should define that role is where you have the political equation,

04:01that you give that space.

04:04The army has no business in politics, one side.

04:09But the army has to be involved.

04:12So what you should do is to have a common minimum programme.

04:17But why are Khan's party and supporters still hopeful about his release?

04:23Just over a month ago, they believed that US President Donald Trump could force the Pakistani military to set Khan free.

04:32When Khan was in power, he maintained good relations with Trump.

04:37hodou

04:43And the army tells them that the army had no force of external intervention or further.

04:48The army is not Megan.

04:50The army has no choice.

04:51I can face them to face them.

04:55Whether they are themselves or their behalf,

05:00so this is all the cases that we follow, the cases will be done and then we will be able to do it.

05:13Yes, we are sure that if it is Europe or US or any country or human rights or international media,

05:23The Trump administration, however, has not hinted anything which could tell us

05:37that its interests are allied with Khan or his PTI party.

05:43In his address to Congress in March, Trump lauded the incumbent Pakistani government

05:48headed by P.M. Shahbaz Sharif for capturing a key militant involved in the 2021 Kabul bombing.

05:56Tonight, I am pleased to announce that we have just apprehended the top terrorist responsible for that atrocity.

06:06And I want to thank especially the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster.

06:11It's a big day.

06:13During the brief India-Pakistan military escalation, the U.S. leader emphasized

06:18that he enjoyed good ties with both Indian and Pakistani leaders.

06:29Huma Bakai, a prominent international relations expert, told me

06:34why the U.S.'s interests look more aligned with the Pakistani militaries

06:39and P.M. Shahbaz Sharif's government rather than Khan.

06:43U.S. will see Pakistan as an ally in facilitating what it wants done in South Asia.

06:51South Asia is a focus again.

06:53We can see that.

06:54Aghwanistan is a focus again.

06:56Minerals are a focus again.

06:58And they seem comfortable with working with whoever is in power.

07:02And if whoever is in power has the establishment support,

07:07Republicans have a tradition to be comfortable with that.

07:10Experts in Pakistan explain to me why U.S.'s interests are closely tied

07:16to Pakistan's security establishment rather than civilian politicians.

07:22The ongoing crisis in the Middle East and the U.S.-Iran tensions mean

07:27that the Pakistani security apparatus has once again become important for Washington.

07:33The U.S. has held several rounds of talks with Iran to secure guarantees

07:41that Tehran wouldn't develop nuclear weapons.

07:47Trump has repeatedly warned the Iranian regime of military action should negotiations fail.

07:55Pakistan, which borders Iran, must keep an eye on the situation

07:59as any escalation between the U.S. and Iran could have a huge fallout for its own security.

08:07The only nuclear power among the Islamic states today with the means to deliver that is Pakistan.

08:17Right.

08:18And if at any time the military option is used,

08:24it will not be confined to Iran.

08:30It will also take out Pakistan.

08:33Right.

08:34Because not for any other reason.

08:36They would not like,

08:38let's say, what they will call rogue elements in Pakistan reacting.

08:43I met with Zia Ur-Rahman,

08:45a journalist who has covered security conflicts in Afghanistan and Iran extensively

08:50at Karachi's press club to know about his assessment.

08:54Currently, we are not seeing any direct implication of what is going on in the Middle East.

09:01But if the U.S. is involved in this relation with Iran,

09:05I think there will be more direct implication on Pakistan's security situation.

09:09Yeah, one thing is very clear that after the fall of Kabul in August 2021,

09:13Pakistan is facing several challenges.

09:16It is economic challenges, it is political chaos,

09:20and most importantly, it is security challenges.

09:22We have seen the rise of Pakistani militants,

09:25which is emboldened by the fall of Kabul.

09:27And we have seen the separatist groups gaining foothold in Bolivistan.

09:31And also amid this political chaos,

09:34I think entire responsibility comes on the Pakistani military

09:38to do something on it.

09:41But the reinforcement of the security establishment in Pakistan

09:46could mean further erosion of democratic and civilian supremacy

09:51in the South Asian country.

09:53Even prior to the clashes with India,

09:56the military had expended its power

09:58and extended its control over the country's politics

10:02and other spheres of life.

10:03I think that the presence and the control

10:08of the military establishment is so, so powerful.

10:14And it has controlled everything,

10:18has spread its, you know, claws all over.

10:22And they are the ones who actually are the decision makers

10:28and the people who actually control.

10:31So I don't think that the so-called democratic government

10:34has much possibilities for itself, you know,

10:39and they are controlled as well.

10:42It's a very dark time for Pakistan.

10:45In fact, probably in my life,

10:47I don't think I've seen such dark times

10:49that we've lived through all the martial laws.

10:51This is not martial law, but it seems so dark.

10:55I would say it's even worse.

10:57And then, of course, as you know,

10:58journalists are constantly picked up.

11:01You say something on people on Facebook have said

11:06very small, almost innocent kind of things

11:11and they have been arrested.

11:18It is unclear how much pressure

11:19the former PM Imran Khan and his party can exert

11:22on the military establishment in this scenario

11:25and whether his call for mass protest

11:27would force the rulers to set him free.

11:31For now, the security state in Pakistan

11:34appears to be on the rise.

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