Thunder vs. Pacers Series Prediction: An In-Depth Analysis

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00:00So now, I'm seeing just using Vandal, minus 330 on OKC, minus 265 on the Pacers.

00:06You and I actually both thought OKC in six, entering the series.

00:12You and I were certainly two of the more confident.

00:16This isn't going to be a short series, guys, right?

00:19There were a lot, a lot, anyone picking the Pacers obviously expected a long series,

00:24but a lot of people picking the Thunder were four or five games.

00:28I was, I am wondering, do I think it's now maybe more OKC in seven than six?

00:33Maybe. I bet both of those. I bet OKC for two. I bet OKC for three.

00:38Those numbers have obviously moved quite dramatically due to the way it goes.

00:44Where are you now? Have you moved to Pacers in seven?

00:49Are you still thinking OKC wins this series?

00:52I'm still thinking OKC wins this series,

00:54but Sunday's game tomorrow is going to tell us everything.

00:59Because the different outcomes would be, man, Thunder, you know what?

01:04What do they do best?

01:05They're 10-point favorites, they win by 20.

01:07Yeah.

01:08Do we see that type of game?

01:09Like, eh, it's probably going to be OKC in six.

01:11Or what happens if OKC comes out there and they win but they don't cover?

01:16They win by like six.

01:17It's like, man, Pacers were within arm's reach the entire time.

01:20They were within the number the entire time.

01:22They missed a shot here, they missed a shot there.

01:24OKC had an extra bucket, you know, whatever it might be.

01:27It's like, man, the Pacers won game one and then they were right there in game two,

01:31but they didn't come away with it.

01:32It's like, eh, maybe the Thunder.

01:34There's definitely some holes, you know, leaking in the ship at this point.

01:37And so tomorrow's game will be the determining factor.

01:40If I'm still answering the question now, I would still say OKC in six,

01:45which is the point I made coming into the season when I said my favorite bet of the series

01:48was over five and a half total games.

01:50I didn't want to go to, you know, exact number because I didn't want to be able to,

01:54I didn't want to have to hedge out of both.

01:56Over five and a half, I could hedge out of that if we got to a spot where they would win 4-1,

02:00which obviously can still happen at a certain point.

02:02But 4-2 for OKC, I think, is where things should go.

02:06If we get a super close game tomorrow, it could be OKC in seven.

02:11So I want to, I want to, it's a really good point you bring up.

02:14I mentioned they were 6-0 before that game against Indiana in the postseason

02:18when teams turn it over 20 or more times.

02:21It's not just that they were 6-0.

02:24Their blowout wins were probably massive.

02:28So they've beaten every single team so far by 30 or more, right?

02:33Right.

02:34The game where they beat Memphis by 50, turned it over 20 times.

02:37Both 30-point wins against Denver, right?

02:40They turned it over 20 times.

02:42And the 30-point closeout against Minnesota, they turned it over 20 times.

02:46So four of the six wins, they had beaten their opponent by at least 30 points.

02:54They just lost to the Pacers.

02:58So the question becomes, it's not just that the Thunder should have won the game.

03:04They should have won it by 20.

03:06They should have covered the 9-10-point number.

03:08However, how many times were the Thunder going to beat this team by 20?

03:15Realistically, by 30.

03:17Maybe once.

03:18I was thinking, so I thought at least once, to be fair.

03:21Maybe twice.

03:22But now you go, maybe now?

03:27They might have missed the chance to do that.

03:29And now you have to win close games against these demons?

03:32See, and that's worrisome.

03:33This is kind of the point I made coming into it.

03:35It was like, the opponents, that's why I said that if OKC wanted to face anyone, it was the Knicks.

03:43And that's why I said it, because the Pacers' offense can hang with the Thunder.

03:46You can say that the Pacers' defense may not be able to hang with the Thunder.

03:49But the Knicks' offense would have never been able to hang with the Thunder.

03:53That's what it comes down to.

03:54If the Knicks could have grinded a game out, they could force them to play slow and they could win close games.

03:58But if OKC got the juices going on offense, the Knicks would never keep up with them.

04:02And that's a fact.

04:03The Pacers can go punch for punch with them on offense, which is what we saw.

04:07So if the Pacers keep this close, the Thunder, I would have to say, I may have to take a Pacers' serious price at that point.

04:18A Pacers to win 4-3.

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