Analyzing Game Two Odds: Oilers vs. Panthers Matchup

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00:00So tonight, let's take a look at the odds.

00:02Oilers are less of a favorite than they were in game two than they were in game one.

00:06So the Panthers are about plus 105, plus 110, depending on the book.

00:10Total six and a half in this one.

00:13Is this going to be a series that's tied after tonight?

00:15I mean, I know we're in for a long series.

00:17I get that.

00:18But what do you make of this line tonight?

00:20I think what we saw in game one was Florida just closing it out.

00:25Florida's done a fantastic job the entire postseason of closing things out.

00:30They've done it a lot by running up the score in visiting places,

00:33sending people to the aisles quickly, Carolina, in Toronto.

00:37And one thing that when we were talking, we had a week to talk about game one, obviously.

00:42We're talking about, well, Florida's the better team.

00:44But how much do you value depth versus McDavid and Dreisaitl?

00:50Like, yes, we know that they have the best players,

00:52but I think we still kind of undervalue them in terms of where you base the money line,

00:58where you're putting everything out.

01:00I just think when you have McDavid and Dreisaitl late in a game playing big minutes

01:05and they're at home and they have the last change, it's a massive advantage.

01:08And we saw Florida look great early in the periods, but this team's banged up

01:12and they look real tired defending that lead late in the third.

01:17They scored.

01:18They could have scored early in that first overtime.

01:20But as a guy who backed Florida plus 110 in that game, I felt the exact same way.

01:24I felt that was a game like that money should be in my account.

01:28That plus 110, one unit should be my account.

01:30But it wasn't, sadly.

01:32And that's why we're seeing a price change.

01:33We usually see that in the NHL, especially in the postseason,

01:36where game one, let's say, is even money.

01:39They lose.

01:40Then you're going to get maybe five to ten points.

01:42But we're seeing this at minus 105 in some spots.

01:46We saw the plus 104 graphic.

01:47This number's still moving.

01:48I don't think you go past even money if you're Florida.

01:54Because, like I said, they look tired.

01:56And I think just the gear that 97 and 29 have is substantial.

02:02And we saw Edmonton be able to close out games.

02:04We saw their ability to come back two goals, which is a team that no one's done that versus Florida.

02:11No one's come back.

02:12Even like first period leads after 20 minutes.

02:14They've just found a great way to do it.

02:16Do I like Florida plus 110?

02:18Yes.

02:18Does that number exist anymore?

02:20When your producer said, what are you playing?

02:21I said, Florida plus 110.

02:23That number's, I think, gone.

02:25I think you can play the plus 104.

02:26But I think at even money, I think that's the point where I'm off.

02:30Interesting note there, Josh.

02:32Now, you know, the odds for scoring tonight really tell the story that you just told,

02:37which is basically for Edmonton, it's really hard to back anyone to score a goal outside

02:42of the superstars in Dreisaitl and McDavid.

02:45Florida's got a few guys at plus 200.

02:48I mean, Dreisaitl's numbers just keep crashing every single day we move on here.

02:52He's only plus 115 tonight.

02:53Is there anyone in particular that you like this evening?

02:56Plus 115's a price I'm never going to play.

02:58Even when Matthews was scoring 69 goals, I think you could get him at like minus 115.

03:04It's going to be a tough spot to play that.

03:06I think you can kind of go off the board in some spots.

03:08We got to find out what the lines are today because they did juggle them up in Edmonton.

03:12That's what happens when they chase us.

03:13They start off with 97 and 29 on different lines.

03:16And then when they're trailing, they put them together.

03:18And at home, when you have last change, you can do that.

03:20So look for that line to change.

03:22And it's a tough one to predict.

03:23So is Leon Dreisaitl going to be playing with Arvidsson?

03:26If he's playing with Arvidsson, who's actually playing well and playing second line minutes,

03:29then him at like the plus 500 range is a good spot.

03:33Anybody like Sam Bennett at 230 is something that I like there.

03:36But in terms of guys I'm looking for in props, I want Corey Perry.

03:39I think he's good on the power play point at plus 275.

03:42Evan Rodriguez, top line, PP2, I think is a great target and a price that hasn't been adjusted as much.

03:48And Ryan Nugent Hopkins for an assist is something too.

03:53Finally, we got the series odds here.

03:55Josh, we haven't had you on before the series, but you could certainly pick somebody right now.

03:59Edmonton minus 225, which obviously you and I would never do unless we're parlaying it with something.

04:04Panthers plus 184.

04:06And then we have one and a half games, total five and a half games, if you could see that graphic.

04:10Anything that you've liked either before the series or now?

04:14Bum, bum, bum.

04:15Tough on the spot stuff because, yeah, I'm not running out.

04:17I had Florida pre-series at plus 110.

04:19Usually game one reflects that.

04:22I think Florida, I think the Edmonton Oilers have to wrap up this series quickly if they want to wrap it up, like in game five.

04:28Because I think the longer you play Florida, the more that depth is an advantage.

04:32So maybe something like Florida plus one and a half or maybe over five and a half.

04:38But I mean, I'm not running out to hit 180.

04:41So maybe I'll be right back.

04:54Yeah.

04:55So maybe we'll be right back.

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