- 6/5/2025
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00:00Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider on SportsGrid, across the board, on all the shows, and on Coast to Coast in particular.
00:07You catch him every week right here. You can follow him on X at Kaplan NFL.
00:12He's covered the league for almost 30 years, and he's the best at it.
00:16And we've been together six long, friendly years of violence in the NFL pain day style.
00:22And you catch him here in the afternoons, and we're going to get right to it.
00:26I ain't got a feeling. Pittsburgh's going to the Super Bowl. I got a feeling.
00:36There is no chance they're going to the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers. I'm just kidding.
00:41Scott, first of all, let me put this out right now, because I've been looking at the odds, the divisional odds on the books.
00:50The Steelers are still plus 600 to win your AFC North.
00:53They're still, Scott, when you – and we'll get more – we'll break this down later.
00:59But when you really look at their situation, Scott, they're still not expected to have over eight and a half wins.
01:04They're still not expected to have a winning record.
01:06Now, I know things could change for the next 24 hours. I get that.
01:09But everyone expected Aaron Rodgers to sign with him. He's going to sign with him.
01:13And he's going to help them. They're going to be better.
01:16Now, let's kind of look at how they could be better.
01:19You know, Russell Wilson, you and I talked off of the air.
01:21You know, you and I kind of see Russell Wilson the same way.
01:24He did well for a while, then he completely fizzled.
01:27And they should have benched him, as Arthur Smith wanted to do.
01:31But Russell's not benched. He finished the season out.
01:34And it didn't work out for them.
01:36They still have not won a playoff game since 2017.
01:38So they bring in Aaron Rodgers, right, at 41 and a half years old.
01:41Rodgers showed tremendous toughness.
01:42He played through two injuries last season.
01:45I'm told a moderate hamstring strain and a knee sprain at the same time.
01:48Did not miss any games. I know he didn't play great.
01:51He still had 28 passing touchdowns.
01:53In a dreadful season overall for the Jets.
01:56But here's a guy who's been there and done that, okay?
01:59He wanted to play this season.
02:00Very clearly, he told people he needed a little downtime.
02:04He's dealing with some kind of personal issue in his private life.
02:07He's playing, okay? He's told them that. He's going to be in.
02:09They have a three-day mandatory camp next week.
02:12He's going to be there. That's a good thing.
02:15But when you really look at it, he elevates this football team.
02:18They need more stability, at least for one season.
02:20They'll figure out down the line in future drafts what the quarterback
02:23position is going to look like.
02:25But the one big difference, Scott, between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson is,
02:29Aaron Rodgers will make his offensive line better.
02:31How's he going to do that?
02:32He gets rid of the ball faster.
02:35Wilson runs around, scrambles around.
02:37It doesn't always get rid of the football.
02:39And I know that this has been a problem with the teams he's been on.
02:43And now the Giants have to deal with it.
02:44But Aaron Rodgers, he may not move like he used to.
02:48But he's better than Russell Wilson at this point.
02:52And that's the bottom line.
02:53He's going to help them.
02:55Now, are they going to be a playoff team?
02:56Highly unlikely.
02:58Could they have more than eight and a half wins to go over the total?
03:01Yes.
03:02But it's not a lot.
03:03They're not making the playoffs, Scott.
03:05They're just not.
03:06They're not going to be good enough.
03:07Their defense will be very good.
03:10I said some positivity about Aaron Rodgers.
03:13But, Scott, physically, I just wonder.
03:15They won 10 games in that ass quarterback room last year.
03:21I know.
03:21I know, Scott.
03:22Now, I thought Fields was way better than Wilson.
03:25And Wilson went 500, lost every game in December.
03:29He was pathetic.
03:30But they won 10 games.
03:31They never won from December on.
03:36They had 10 wins before December.
03:39How is it that this guy, Tomlin, always, that they always end up going to the playoffs and losing?
03:46But saying to me that they're winning under eight games is insanity.
03:50And saying they don't have a shot at the playoffs, to me, as a wild card, is insanity.
03:55All this guy, Tomlin, does is win.
03:57And now he's got a guy that gets rid of the rock.
03:59They got talent.
04:00They got Metcalf.
04:01They got running backs.
04:02They got a great defense.
04:03And now, all of a sudden, they suck?
04:06I'll say this.
04:07The eight-and-a-half win total, the over is plus 100.
04:10I do like them to win nine games.
04:12The under is minus 120.
04:14Now, these numbers I love.
04:17To be the third-place finisher in the AFC North, the Steelers are minus 135.
04:22To me, that's exactly where they're going to finish.
04:24They're going to be better than Cleveland.
04:26Cleveland's a nightmare quarterback.
04:27You know, they've got four quarterbacks, but they don't know who their starter is.
04:30That's a disaster.
04:32We know the Ravens are going to finish in first.
04:33That's a lock.
04:35We know number two, Scott, we know that the Bengals are going to be right there.
04:40They'll finish in second.
04:41Your Steelers are going to finish in third.
04:42That's why they're minus 135.
04:44But they're not a playoff team to me.
04:46The Chargers, that's my team.
04:48I missed on them last season.
04:50I've learned better.
04:51We'll talk more about them in the second segment.
04:53You can't discount them.
04:55Denver came out of nowhere last year and became a playoff team.
04:58Denver's got a better team right now than the Steelers.
05:00But you're right.
05:02That Tomlin somehow gets there and they don't win.
05:05It's going to be harder this year, Scott.
05:07The AFC is pretty strong.
05:08It's a little bit stronger than you think.
05:10Rodgers gives a better chance than Russell Wilson did.
05:12But I don't know if they're any better.
05:14Yeah, they got DK Metcalf.
05:16Instead of Arthur Smith, who's got to do a better job of scheming and designing.
05:19They don't have Najee Harris.
05:20The run game is going to look a little different this season.
05:22Cornerback position is sort of a challenge there.
05:26They're an above average team.
05:28But to me, Scott, again, are they one?
05:29I won't argue with you.
05:30I won't argue with you.
05:31But I spent a lot of money.
05:33I spent a lot of money on those tickets.
05:35I just need them.
05:36I just need them to be decent.
05:39And listen, I think, like, I get it with, you know, this Joey Smoke, whatever they call him, in Cincinnati.
05:47He's got so many nicknames.
05:49Joey Silk, all this other stuff.
05:50So, I think he's got two great receivers.
05:53I don't deny what they're capable of with him at quarterback and two great receivers.
05:59But I think the rest of their team is ass.
06:01I still think it's the Ravens and Steelers.
06:05Well, when you look at the conference list, Scott, Texans, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Denver, Cincinnati.
06:14Okay, Cincinnati, by the way, did not make the playoffs last season, Scott.
06:16But they somehow kept their offense together.
06:20Let's be honest about it.
06:21Higgins returning was a big surprise.
06:23But they have not taken care of the Trey Henderson situation.
06:26They had a defense at times that was not competitive.
06:28But their offense is fantastic.
06:30And that's, look, that's not to say someone couldn't come out of nowhere of the bottom feeders and be a playoff team.
06:35But Cincinnati is going to make the playoffs.
06:37They can outscore teams.
06:38The question for the Steelers is, can Aaron Rodgers last physically at 41 and a half?
06:44He turns 42 in December.
06:47I give him credit for playing 70 games somehow, multiple injuries.
06:51But, man, he was laboring badly last season, Scott.
06:54That does worry me.
06:56All right.
06:57I can't take any more of this torture.
07:00You're giving me torture.
07:02Let's just move on.
07:04All the negativity.
07:06It's just Debbie Downerville.
07:07All right.
07:08So the Niners, they got their hands on Bryce Huff.
07:13Yeah, I love this trade for the Niners.
07:15So it didn't work out for the Eagles.
07:17Three years, $51 million.
07:18$34 million fully guaranteed at signing.
07:20The Eagles missed on him.
07:22Not only did they pay him $17.25 million last year, but they're going to pay him over $9 million of his $16.75 million salary this season.
07:32So they're into him for over $26 million of the $34 million that's due over two seasons.
07:38But you know what?
07:39It didn't work out.
07:40They're getting a fifth-round pick that could be a fourth, depending on how he performs.
07:46And, by the way, Eagles have a ton of draft picks.
07:48They could have as many as, I think, 13 next year, which is ridiculous.
07:5113 is crazy.
07:53I know.
07:53It's crazy.
07:54Yeah, it is crazy.
07:55But the Niners, Bryce Huff, it may not have worked out for Philly, but Bryce Huff is a great fit for this front that they play.
08:02They play a 43 front with that wide nine where the ends get upfield.
08:06And that's where Bryce Huff was phenomenal as the best sub-package rusher in the National Football League.
08:12Under Robert Sala two years ago as the Jets head coach.
08:17He's now reunited with them.
08:18I love this fit for the Niners.
08:20And, Scott, the Niners have, like, next to no depth at edge.
08:23This is a good move for them.
08:25I love this.
08:26This helps them.
08:27And don't forget they drafted Mike Kell Williams, the edge rusher out of Georgia.
08:30I like this.
08:32And, by the way, the odds makers, and we'll talk about them later,
08:34they still think the Niners are going to win the NFC West by a very small margin.
08:39Do you believe that?
08:42No.
08:42See, my upset special, which I told you weeks ago,
08:46is my upset special for the NFC is for the Seahawks to shock the world and win the NFC West.
08:53I know that.
08:54So you're not buying.
08:55So you would buy the under for the Niners at minus about 30 under the 10 and a half?
09:02I think they're around 10, Scott.
09:04I think that division's tight.
09:05The Rams are going to be there.
09:07Seahawks are improved.
09:08There's no question about it.
09:10And the Cardinals, you know, are feisty.
09:11They're tough.
09:12Adam, don't you believe that, before we get into the coaches,
09:15that the kid Will Howard will benefit,
09:17even if Aaron Rodgers never says one word to him the entire season,
09:21and that the kid can just watch him and just stare at him and learn from him,
09:27even without communicating.
09:29I don't know if Aaron's cool enough to talk to the kid.
09:31I think that we saw him do it in New York.
09:36He was actually approachable.
09:39He wasn't a jerk.
09:40So I think that that kid Howard can benefit the most from this.
09:44I don't think Rudolph needs lessons.
09:46He'll be the backup,
09:47and the kid Howard can actually learn something.
09:50And then down the road,
09:51if they coach him right,
09:52he could actually turn into something.
09:54The time is not now for Will Howard,
09:56but it is learning time.
09:57It's time to go to school.
09:58All right, a couple things on Aaron Rodgers.
10:01So two years ago, before Zach Wilson was traded,
10:04so speaking of Jets about him,
10:05Rodgers would tell Wilson,
10:07hey, come over here.
10:08I want you to see what we're doing here.
10:10And it was really great.
10:13I mean, he was good with the young kid,
10:15and he'd say, hey, watch how I do this.
10:18And you know what?
10:18That's all you can ask for a veteran quarterback.
10:21He handled himself well.
10:23That's not been the problem with Rodgers.
10:24He actually did a good job of mentoring.
10:26Look, in the end,
10:29the Jets didn't get what they thought
10:30they could get out of Rodgers
10:31for a number of reasons.
10:33Aaron's health,
10:34and obviously the torn Achilles,
10:35let's not forget about that,
10:37and what they had around on the offensive line now.
10:39They've actually addressed it.
10:41But the bottom line is going back to your Steelers.
10:42Will Howard is a guy that, quite frankly,
10:44most people thought would go higher
10:45than the sixth round.
10:47So they got a pretty good value there.
10:48I know they're pretty excited about it.
10:50And you bring him along slowly,
10:51he's going to be the third-string quarterback.
10:53Mason Rudolph is unquestionably the number two,
10:56two-year, seven million.
10:58So that's a good spot for Mason Rudolph.
11:00They were never, they knew it.
11:01Look, Scott, the reality is,
11:02if they didn't get Rodgers,
11:04they were going to get in
11:05to the veteran quarterback race
11:07in terms of trading for one.
11:08They weren't going with Mason Rudolph
11:09as their starter.
11:10I don't know what they told the media.
11:12That wasn't going to happen
11:13because you got no chance.
11:14Mason Rudolph is a guy,
11:16he's a typical backup.
11:17He could get you out of a tough spot
11:19for maybe six games,
11:20but he's not a full-season starter.
11:23Remember when he played the three games
11:25and got him in the playoffs?
11:26That's who he is.
11:27That's who he is.
11:28Anything past that is failure.
11:30All right, so let's talk about
11:32coach of the year, believe it or not.
11:33You're already laying the table out
11:36for the coach of the year.
11:37Nice.
11:38Yeah, so we've done just about every award,
11:41but we never did the AP NFL coach of the year out.
11:43So understand a couple things here, Scott.
11:45This is a regular season award.
11:47It typically goes to the head coach
11:50where the team is way better than you thought.
11:53It's rare that you get,
11:54like Andy Reid, by the way.
11:56Okay, Andy Reid, Scott,
11:58yeah, he's won it before,
11:59but he hasn't won it since 2002,
12:02and he was with the Eagles
12:02that early in his career with the Eagles
12:04because they're so good every year.
12:06How could he be better than the expectations?
12:09Whereas when you look at a guy,
12:12like my favorite this year is Jim Harbaugh.
12:14Okay, they were better than expected last year.
12:15It would not surprise me if they won the AFC West.
12:19I know the Chiefs for years have owned the Chargers.
12:21I get that, but that was not with Harbaugh.
12:24Harbaugh now, you get him in there for second season.
12:27By the way, he's plus 1,000.
12:29He's plus 1,000 to win this award.
12:32I love those odds.
12:33He won it, by the way, with the Niners in 2011.
12:35You know how they made that Super Bowl run under Kaepernick.
12:38The guy wins everywhere he's been,
12:39whether it's New York City, San Diego, Stanford,
12:42the Niners, Michigan.
12:45He's a turn-around program head coach.
12:47He's brilliant.
12:48I know some people think he's got a short shelf life
12:51because he drives people crazy.
12:52The guy's a brilliant head coach.
12:54That, to me, that plus 1,000 is a great one.
12:58Yeah.
12:59Ben Johnson, by the way,
13:00he's got the shorter sides of plus 650.
13:02Mike Vrabel, now this is interesting.
13:05Mike Vrabel's only plus 750.
13:06Well, look, the Patriots have been terrible
13:08for a number of years.
13:10So you're looking at it.
13:11Now, he did win it just four years ago
13:14with the Titans in 2021.
13:17They're only plus 750 with the Patriots.
13:19Now, because the expectation is,
13:22with Drake May and better coaching,
13:24they could be a seven- or eight-win team.
13:25They have a very favorable schedule, by the way.
13:27Sleeper.
13:29What's that?
13:30Sleeper.
13:31Yeah, he's a sleeper, but he's plus 750.
13:34Mike McDonald is my guy, plus 2,000.
13:37Again, I'm going out on a limb there
13:39for them to win the NFC West.
13:40So there are a lot of good ones,
13:42but it is really hard, Scott.
13:44If you go over a number of years,
13:46Don Shula, all-time, one at the most.
13:48Three with the Colts, one with the Dolphins.
13:50Belichick, one of three times.
13:51Chuck Knox.
13:52You and I watched Chuck Knox.
13:54Ground Chuck.
13:54Yep.
13:55Rams, Bills, and people forget
13:58with that crew there with the Seahawks.
14:02Seahawks.
14:03And Kurt Warner, the running back.
14:04Go ahead.
14:05Yeah, I mean, obviously.
14:07Now, Sean Payton's at 1,500.
14:11Dan Campbell, 2,000.
14:14Your boy McDonald's right there.
14:16You've got him winning the NFC West.
14:19So that, he's got a shot.
14:21If he gets them into the playoffs
14:22and they win that division, believe me,
14:24he'll be in the running.
14:27McVay is always considered, right,
14:29as one of the best coaches.
14:31Is he not still a genius?
14:33He is fantastic.
14:34Now, he came out of nowhere in 2017
14:36in his second year.
14:37Remember, Jeff Fisher was fired.
14:39And actually, I think it might have been
14:41his first year because Fisher was there.
14:46Yeah, in fact, Fisher was there for Jared Goff.
14:47Then he was let go.
14:49So, yeah, Sean is phenomenal.
14:51And you know what's amazing about him?
14:53And he's been very public about it.
14:56He almost quit coaching going to television
14:58to work for Amazon or any network would want him.
15:02I talked to coaches who talked to him
15:03who was other teams who wanted to leave
15:05the teams they were with and coached for him.
15:07And he said, listen, I might leave.
15:09So you might as well get another job.
15:11And then he reconsidered and stayed.
15:13And the guy's incredible.
15:14There's no question about it.
15:16And also, you know, here's another thing.
15:18Dan Quinn and the Commanders,
15:20they're plus 2,200.
15:21I know there's some contractual issues
15:22with their players.
15:23They'll get, these always get worked out.
15:25I don't worry about that.
15:26Now, obviously, they're not sneaking up on anybody.
15:28He's plus 2,200.
15:29But he didn't win it last year.
15:30You probably could have said he should have won it.
15:33And then...
15:34What about O'Connell at 4,000?
15:37My God, if McCarthy works out.
15:40Weren't they great last year?
15:41And he didn't even play.
15:44I know.
15:44And by the way, I know Kevin O'Connell,
15:46by the way, won it last year in 2024.
15:49He's plus 4,000.
15:51And how about Kevin Stefanski?
15:53Most people don't know this.
15:54He's won it twice at 20 and 23.
15:57And plus 5,000.
15:58Now, listen, he's a miracle worker,
16:00but they're not getting there this year.
16:01There's just...
16:03It's not going to happen.
16:04They're joking.
16:04Why is McDermott 5,000?
16:06Why is he 5,000?
16:08Because it's too easy?
16:10Scott, Scott, they're good every year on a Sean.
16:13What could he possibly do?
16:14Remember, it's a regular season award.
16:16There's nothing wrong with that.
16:18But they don't take the postseason into account,
16:20and that's the problem with it.
16:21Phenomenal stuff today, Adam.
16:23Go have a tea.
16:24Look.
16:24Look.
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