With hurricane season here, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the tropics.
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00:00Well, June, we start ramping down severe weather as the tornado threat goes down, but then we begin
00:07the hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. When you take a look at the number of storms per day
00:13since 1944, I mean, you see the trend here. From September through mid-August, this is where we get
00:19predominantly most of the storms. But you'll note a couple little bumps up here during the month of
00:25June. This is where we tend to see what? Homegrown development. Now, homegrown development far
00:31different than what we see development during the heart of the hurricane season. This is where
00:35we're tracking tropical waves moving off Africa. Oftentimes, if they form, we have over a week
00:41to be prepared. We don't have that luxury in the early part of the season. Why? Homegrown development.
00:48Now, how that works is different than what we see, as I mentioned, during the heart of the hurricane
00:51season. Here, it's the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics. Waves coming off Africa
00:57almost never develop this time of the year due to dry air. But at times, the jet stream can get a
01:03little farther south. And what the jet stream does is it brings fronts, it brings upper lows,
01:09and it can produce a gyre in Central America. All of those processes produce showers and thunderstorms.
01:15And if those showers and thunderstorms can sit in the warm water of the Gulf of America,
01:20southwest Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, they can slowly develop into a tropical entity. And the
01:26problem is, if stuff does develop close to the United States, you typically have less than four
01:32days to prepare for a landfall. That's why it makes it so tricky. Now, nothing off the southeast
01:37coast of the United States that we were worried about yesterday. That upper low is now leaving. But
01:42already, look what's going on in the Caribbean. Some showers and thunderstorms. We're going to keep an
01:48eye on that. We still have a low chance of development late next week.