- 5/30/2025
In this intense update, Alexander Mercouris breaks down Moscow’s latest ultimatum to Ukraine and the West: accept peace terms or face total defeat 🇷🇺🛑. As talks resume in Istanbul, tensions rise with the West showing signs of internal division, while Russia remains firm on its conditions ⚔️.
Meanwhile, the EU is reportedly dreaming of controlling the Black Sea, sparking fears of further escalation 🌊💥. Could this be the final turning point in the conflict? Or is it yet another dangerous step toward a broader war?
Mercouris unpacks the diplomatic stakes, NATO pressure, and Russia’s long game—providing viewers with an unfiltered look into what mainstream media won’t say 🎙️🧠.
#RussiaUkraineWar #MoscowUltimatum #IstanbulPeaceTalks #AlexanderMercouris #UkraineConflict #BlackSeaCrisis #Geopolitics #NATOvsRussia #UkraineUpdate #EasternEuropeWar #RussiaDemands #UkrainePeaceDeal #EUvsRussia #GlobalTensions #Ukraine2025 #ProxyWar #DiplomaticShowdown #WorldPolitics #UkraineWarExplained #RealNews
Keywords used: Moscow ultimatum Ukraine, Istanbul peace negotiations, Alexander Mercouris update, Russia Ukraine war news, EU Black Sea expansion, NATO vs Russia conflict, Ukraine war explained, Ukraine peace or defeat, Russia military pressure, diplomatic showdown Istanbul, Ukraine war truth, EU Russia conflict, Ukraine battlefield update, Black Sea geopolitical strategy, war news USA, Ukraine war turning point, global war analysis, EU military ambitions, Ukraine Russia settlement, peace deal 2025.
Meanwhile, the EU is reportedly dreaming of controlling the Black Sea, sparking fears of further escalation 🌊💥. Could this be the final turning point in the conflict? Or is it yet another dangerous step toward a broader war?
Mercouris unpacks the diplomatic stakes, NATO pressure, and Russia’s long game—providing viewers with an unfiltered look into what mainstream media won’t say 🎙️🧠.
#RussiaUkraineWar #MoscowUltimatum #IstanbulPeaceTalks #AlexanderMercouris #UkraineConflict #BlackSeaCrisis #Geopolitics #NATOvsRussia #UkraineUpdate #EasternEuropeWar #RussiaDemands #UkrainePeaceDeal #EUvsRussia #GlobalTensions #Ukraine2025 #ProxyWar #DiplomaticShowdown #WorldPolitics #UkraineWarExplained #RealNews
Keywords used: Moscow ultimatum Ukraine, Istanbul peace negotiations, Alexander Mercouris update, Russia Ukraine war news, EU Black Sea expansion, NATO vs Russia conflict, Ukraine war explained, Ukraine peace or defeat, Russia military pressure, diplomatic showdown Istanbul, Ukraine war truth, EU Russia conflict, Ukraine battlefield update, Black Sea geopolitical strategy, war news USA, Ukraine war turning point, global war analysis, EU military ambitions, Ukraine Russia settlement, peace deal 2025.
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NewsTranscript
00:00good day today is friday 30th may 2025 and um in two days time we will have the first
00:09the second meeting rather in istanbul between the russian and ukrainian delegations we i understand
00:17from comments made by general kellogg that the united states will be there probably he
00:24general kellogg will be in istanbul it seems that the europeans and the british are also going to be
00:32there um jonathan powell um keir starmer's national security advisor is also apparently heading to
00:41istanbul as are other european officials and of course it's not difficult to understand why because
00:48as i discussed in my program yesterday the russians have made the decision an entirely
00:55understandable decision to withhold their memorandum vladimir zelensky is bitterly complaining about this
01:03and is saying that this is an example a further act of bad faith by the russians but the russians have
01:12withheld their memorandum outlining their ideas for the settlement of the conflict and the reason
01:20that they have done so is not difficult at all to understand firstly they don't want the ukrainians
01:27and the west shaping the narrative about this memorandum by leaking its contents to the media
01:33secondly they want the ukrainians to be presented with this memorandum and to be asked forthwith by
01:44the russians to express and state their own views and thirdly it appears that this memorandum anyway
01:52is a sophisticated and complex document and it will go beyond um the issues of the ukraine conflict
02:01itself and the russians are very keen to have a situation in which the ukrainians and the western powers
02:11have no option but to comment on it and that we don't have a repetition of what happened in april 2022
02:22when the russians sent a set of proposals to the ukrainians following meetings they had with the ukrainians
02:31in istanbul which led to a draft agreement being reached there only for those proposals that the
02:40russians sent to the ukrainians to then disappear into the ether when the ukrainians not only refused to
02:48respond to them but pretended that they'd never been received at all i mean they just acted as if
02:55those proposals had never been sent to them at all so the russians do not want that to happen again
03:04they've ensured that the ukrainians and the west will all be in istanbul and they're going to be
03:14presented there with the russian memorandum now i have not obviously read this memorandum peskov has
03:23been making absolutely clear that the russians are keeping it very very close to their uh chess they're
03:30playing their cards very close to their chest they're not giving anything away about what his contents
03:35say um lavrov has had two conversations recently with um officials from nato one was of course marco rubio
03:50the u.s secretary of state and the other was the turkish foreign minister mr fidan
03:56and one could see from the russian readouts and little of what was happening which is that both rubio
04:04and fidan perhaps fidan even more than rubio were anxiously exploring trying to get from the russians
04:12some indication of what the russian memorandum contained and judging from the very very sparse readouts
04:25that the russian foreign ministry has provided um lavrov just batted both rubio and fidan away so the
04:35russians as i said aren't disclosing absolutely nothing but i don't think it's particularly difficult
04:42to guess on a lot of what is there the russians at their first meeting with the ukrainians in istanbul
04:51made it absolutely clear that they expect the entirety of the four regions to be transferred
04:58to russia and that they expect the ukrainians to agree to that and to recognize that fact
05:06de jure the russians also want all of the other provisions of the original istanbul agreement
05:13of april 2022 to be implemented though they want certain further um further provisions
05:22as well it's likely that they will want even tougher guarantees for example that ukraine will not
05:29enter nato it appears that they're now demanding that isn't just ukraine that gives promises that it
05:37will not join nato and changes its constitution accordingly but that the western powers also
05:44give written assurances to russia that ukraine will not join nato and if the reports from reuters
05:50are true that moldova georgia and other former soviet republics don't join nato either and i suspect
05:59that contrary to what many expect or want to believe the russians will take even make even tougher
06:05demands about restrictions on the size of the ukrainian armed forces and quite possibly in light of all
06:13the discussions about deployment of tourist missiles and such things to ukraine that they will want
06:19absolute cast iron guarantees that under no circumstances will western troops be deployed to ukraine
06:27and that no western missiles long-range missiles will be deployed to ukraine either the european union
06:36has just published an elaborate plan to basically gain control of the black sea and to drive out the
06:46russians from there an impossible project by the way given the geography and certainly whilst russia is in
06:53control of crimea i mean it's simply it simply cannot be done any more than um nato control of the baltic
07:05can be established either as i suspect we will see at some point over the next few years but the very fact
07:15that these harebrained ideas are being floated the very fact that the germans are now debating whether to
07:24send tourist missiles to ukraine to repeat again i believe the tourist missiles are already in ukraine
07:32the way in which friday matt is congratulating himself and his cleverness and cunning by saying that
07:39this is all strategic ambiguity keeping the russians guessing and all of that the russians have by now
07:47an extremely sophisticated intelligence operation in ukraine they will know whether the tourist missiles
07:56are in ukraine or not just saying they probably have an equally sophisticated operation intelligence
08:02operation in germany as well by the way but i'm not going to speculate further about that but anyway
08:08the russians are under no doubts about where these missiles are and whether they have been deployed
08:17friday matt may think he's being very clever but from a russian perspective all he comes across
08:24is as aggressive and two-faced and duplicitous just saying anyway um all of these comments from the europeans
08:37about the black sea about the tourist missiles about assisting ukraine to build long-range missile strikes
08:45and all of that all of this taken together makes me think that the russians are more likely than
08:55not going to harden still their demands in terms of restrictions on western military deployments in
09:01ukraine in ukraine in fact they're going to insist that they cannot happen at all and on restrictions on
09:07the size of the ukrainian armed forces and i'm going to make a guess that the russians are probably at some
09:14point if the negotiations continue maybe not in this memorandum that is going to be presented on monday
09:23but i suspect that at some point the russians are going to give a list to ukraine of the military
09:30industrial facilities in ukraine that they will want to see dismantled just saying just to make
09:38it clear that that is precisely the point which we are heading towards now all of this
09:47this i think makes it fairly clear what this memorandum really is it's not going to be couched
09:56in these terms but it is increasingly gaining something of the look of an ultimatum about it
10:07after all medvedev in his speech to the legal forum in st petersburg last week
10:12all but said as much that this is ukraine's last chance if they don't agree to the terms
10:19that the russians are going to propose then the russians will continue the war until ukraine has
10:26surrendered completely and the russians feel increasingly confident that that is the point
10:33that they will reach as well so what i think is going to happen on monday
10:40is that the russians are going to present the ukrainians with this memorandum it's going to
10:46be incredibly toughly worded it's going to make extraordinarily tough demands of ukraine and by
10:54extension of the collective west the ukrainians will express anger and that they will reject it
11:03completely the europeans the americans who are there will be horrified by its contents or say they are
11:11i'm guessing that some of them already have some insight into what these comments
11:18into what the contents of this memorandum will be they have some sense of the provisions that it will
11:26contain and quite plausibly we will see the talks then break up the ukraine the ukrainians return
11:33to kiev and we might see that there will be no further response from the ukrainians to the russian
11:42memorandum and at that point the war will continue the russians will at that point bombard the ukrainians
11:49with further demands further explanations but it's quite likely that we will that at this point see
11:56the end of the negotiating process at the present time though there is a possibility that it may resume
12:04in the autumn as the ongoing russian offensive begins to um have its effects now
12:18to repeat again the united states i suspect senses all of this i've seen a whole cascade of comments
12:26from u.s officials over the last 24 hours basically saying that this is an unwinnable war for either side
12:36that it is in russia's best interests to agree to a ceasefire again even after uh donald trump a few
12:44about a week ago two weeks ago finally acknowledge that the russians are not interested in an
12:51unconditional 30-day ceasefire i noticed that some u.s officials are once again coming up with that
12:57they are now saying that it is in russia's interests to accept such a ceasefire because um there is no other
13:05way forward to end the war trump seems to realize that the russians are winning others seem to realize
13:14that the russians are winning but the stalemate narrative continues to apply and the americans
13:21are basically again saying that you know the russians need to accept the ceasefire proposal and then the
13:29threat that they are making is a very interesting one they're saying that if there is no ceasefire
13:36the united states will walk away from the mediation process now why the americans think that that by
13:47itself will suffice to in deter or intimidate the russians i am not at all sure after all it is not as if
14:00the united the russians actually asked the united states to act as mediators in this conflict i have
14:09pointed out in many programs we on the duran alex and i have pointed out on many programs many other
14:16people have also pointed out in many many programs how bizarre it is that the united states which is
14:25arming has been arming has been arming one of its part one of the parties providing within it with
14:30intelligence commanding its armies providing command and control directing the war has been doing all of
14:39these things that it should actually believe that it is in a position to act as a mediator in the conflict
14:49so why the americans pretend that the united states pulling out of its mediation role ending its involvement
15:00in the negotiations should alarm the russians i simply don't understand it could be that this is again code
15:09for some kind of a threat perhaps to resume arms supplies to ukraine
15:16but marco rubio has already said that the united states is short of um interceptor missiles patriot
15:24interceptor missiles and that the united states is short of weapons it can supply to ukraine anyway
15:32and the europeans are in a desperate position where that is concerned and um the united states
15:39which besides may be unlikely to want to supply further weapons to ukraine because it's got
15:47lots of interests in other parts of the world to think about or it could be that the united states
15:56is indeed finally going to get round to imposing those sanctions that it's been talking about
16:02against russia but putin russian officials have been saying for some time that they expect the
16:10sanctions to come and that they're not going to be intimidated or deterred by them and i've discussed
16:17the whole sanctions issue in many many programs and i've explained why i believe the russians are
16:23confident that they can ride any sanctions storm further sanctions storm out so i'm not sure why the
16:36western powers believe that they are in a position to walk away from negotiations i'm not sure what
16:45the western powers believe that the western powers believe that they are going to achieve by telling ukraine to
16:52simply walk away from as i said the ultimatum that the russians are going to hand down on monday i suspect
17:04that there is still a great deal of denial and confusion and inability to face reality in the west at this time
17:15but as i said i think that that probably is what is going to happen anyway thereafter after the russian
17:25memorandum has been rejected as it will be after the russian ultimatum has been rejected as it will be
17:34the russians will press home their military advantage which is tilting further and further
17:41in their favor every single day and we will see the war pressed home and well by the end of the year
17:52probably we will see ukraine in deep existential crisis and the western powers facing extremely
17:59difficult decisions about what they're going to do anyway that that it seems to me is the course uh the
18:06the most likely course of events over the last couple of weeks now of course it is possible it is just
18:12possible that things might take a different turn it might be the case that the russians
18:18are going to take present more moderate proposals in istanbul than i expect i see no indication of this
18:26in any comment or statement that any russian official has made i have no sense that that is the case
18:37but you never know it may be that something unexpected like that might happen it could be
18:44that the west does manage somehow to pull some rabbits out of the hat which i cannot see uh julian
18:52repka had built site and as i said previously couldn't see it either um that they can find some
19:00means to alter the dynamics on the battlefields they haven't been able to for three years but maybe they
19:09can change them now in some way maybe there'll be a decision finally to send troops to ukraine to
19:16take on the russians that will be a complete disaster by the way um i don't know or maybe the
19:21sanctions will be more effective than i expect or believe though again i don't expect or believe it
19:29so it could be that something different happens over the next couple of months but for the record i
19:36think by far the most likely outcome is as i said that the russians will present their memorandum to the
19:42ukrainians that memorandum is essentially an ultimatum the ukrainians will
19:51they won't be able to deny this time that they're rejecting it they will reject it they will walk
19:57away and the war will continue and the west will be left with nothing very much that it can realistically
20:04do that it seems to me is by far the most likely result of what is going to happen so anyway let's wait and
20:15and see now there have been a number of other things that have been going on in the conflict and not
20:24just the conflict but affecting the various parties which perhaps do give a insight of where things are
20:31going firstly china has been making certain moves there are reports that china is now placing export
20:40restrictions on matic bro mavic drones apparently it's not only refusing to supply these to ukraine
20:50that has been true for some time but i've seen reports that they're now restricting exports of mavic drones
20:56to the west as well now that might be important because the mavic drones have been played a major role
21:03in developing ukraine's own drone arsenal many of the drones that the ukrainians have been launching
21:13and modifying and preparing undoubtedly with western assistance have been heavily modified map chinese
21:23mavic drones so for a certain period at least the um absence of mavic drones or the shortage of mavic drones
21:35will may affect the ukrainian drone offensive the drone offensive which as i've discussed in recent
21:44programs has in fact already actually failed just to say um i suspect that the russians pointed out
21:55to the chinese that mavic drones were facilitating the export of chinese mavic drones was facilitating the
22:05joint uh western ukrainian drone offensive against moscow the chinese would not want to be involved in
22:14anything like that and that was what probably precipitated the chinese decision to restrict
22:20exports of mavic drones assuming assuming that these reports are true the other report which is true
22:30because it is coming from the united states itself is about the chinese american trade negotiations
22:38the u.s treasury secretary scott besant has said that the trade negotiations between china
22:44and the united states and the united states are currently stalled the chinese are not making concessions
22:49to the americans i never imagined for a moment that they would the 90-day timetable is ticking away
22:59the united states is under intense pressure and scott besant is talking about the necessity of a telephone
23:10conversation between xi jinping and donald trump in order to break the deadlock
23:16that looks to me and i have to say this as if china is also quite apart from china's own position on the
23:24trade talks which of course we don't know very much about because these trade talks are being conducted
23:29in private but it could be that the chinese are also responding to these threats of further sanctions
23:43secondary sanctions that are being made by the united states by lindsey graham's bone crunching sanctions
23:54against russia which as i pointed out are not really sanctions against russia at all
24:00they are a threat to impose 500 tariffs on countries that import russian oil with china of course being
24:12the most important one so it could be that the chinese are telling the americans look whilst this threat
24:20of 500 tariffs remains we are not really interested in conducting trade talks because why would we want
24:32to it could very well be that if we came to some kind of an agreement with you or what we thought was
24:41an agreement with you congress and the president of the united states might suddenly turn around and sign
24:49into law some other some some sanctions bill some purported sanctions bill which not only restores
25:00all the tariffs on us but raises them even higher to 500 percent and there is no possible sense in that case
25:14in us wasting our time and negotiating with you about trade whilst this threat exists
25:25so that could be what the chinese are saying in private the chinese might be pointing out that it makes
25:34absolutely no logical sense whatsoever for the united states to impose 500 tariffs on china
25:44because of something that some other country namely russia is doing in some completely different part of the
25:51world namely ukraine and europe and well anyway we would see it'd be interesting to know how the american
26:00negotiators are responding to all of that so i think that donald trump absolutely does want some kind of
26:09tariff agreement with china and um it could also be that the chinese
26:19in making these points to the americans are also driving home to the americans how few cards both in the
26:28trade talks and in the ukraine negotiations the united states actually has to play now on the question
26:37of trade and indeed on donald trump's entire position domestically at the moment it must be said that
26:47things have not been going fully his way over the last couple of weeks on the one hand he does seem to
26:53be close to getting his budget plan passed by congress uh his big beautiful bill um it is one which is
27:03likely by the way to increase the u.s budget deficit even further at least that seems to be the larger
27:11consensus i expect that it's true but anyway that bill does seem to be getting through congress
27:20against that he's had some problems with the judiciary about his tariff policy a federal judge
27:28suspended his tariffs i understand that a re an appeal court has now reversed temporarily
27:36that restriction by the um federal judge there will no doubt be further proceedings in the appeal
27:44court court and probably will all end up in the supreme court of the united states now i should say that i
27:51think trump will probably win ultimately these legal battles with the federal judiciary but i'm not
28:01absolutely certain about this because though i'm familiar with the law which trump is using in order to impose
28:14his tariffs it is nonetheless the case that this is a revenue raising
28:20policy at least according to him and the power to raise revenue
28:29under the constitution is vested in congress so though i think as i said his tariff policy
28:39will probably ultimately survive the various legal challenges i'm not myself convinced that it is at
28:48this moment in time a done thing and i suspect that there is more uncertainty within the administration
28:56on this issue than um trump himself and his officials want to acknowledge so there is this residual doubt
29:07the second is that trump has lost a key ally or someone who at one time looked like a key ally um elon musk
29:21was at the head of doge in the weeks after donald trump became president of the united states doge started
29:31very very very strongly it exposed all kinds of problems with federal overspending um it played a key
29:40role in the dismantling of usaid but the bureaucracy started to combine against it members of the cabinet
29:54became increasingly critical of musk uh shareholders in trump's companies began to respond badly to uh musk's
30:06involvement in um doge and musk has now stepped down it's just been an announcement apparently that he's
30:17stepped down from his leadership of doge and to be frank without him there providing doge with the drive
30:29that he gave it i suspect that doge has run its course it's just scratched the surface of federal spending but
30:39it doesn't seem to me as if in the end it is actually in terms of fundamentals financial and economic
30:48fundamentals achieved very much and my own sense is that musk himself has found the whole experience
30:57very bruising and he's rather angry about it and i don't think he's going to be a firm ally of donald trump
31:06to the extent that he was in the first weeks of trump's presidency so again to the extent that doge
31:19and musk and the other people around musk formed a powerful group supporting the president in his
31:29domestic policy politics um that appears to be melting away now i'm going to come back briefly to
31:38lindsey graham and the sanctions bill against russia i'm going to suggest and i've been thinking a lot
31:44about this sanctions bill because as i said already i doesn't seem to me as a sanctions bill that it makes
31:51any real sense at all and i wonder whether the real purpose of this sanctions bill is to provide an
32:01impeachment threat to trump if he doesn't toe the line the establishment line on ukraine after all
32:12lindsey graham is claiming truthfully or not that he has the backing of 81 senators
32:23which is of course an overwhelming majority of senators in the senate we've now had legal challenges
32:32some of which have been successful um against trump at least in the short term
32:39there's uh stories about being appearing in parts of the media about what might happen if donald trump
32:48simply ignores supreme court judgments something by the way he has never done
32:54i wonder whether lindsey graham and his supporters in the senate on using this
33:03bill that they've put together to say to donald trump look we back you at the moment we support you as
33:12president of the united states we're massively impressed by the way in which you came back
33:18to win the presidency the second time but don't take us for granted there's 81 of us in the senate
33:28if you deviate too far from policy including ukraine policy we are in a position if we choose to make
33:39sure that you are not president for very long so i wonder whether there isn't some element of that in all
33:47of this to repeat again a point i've made already in spite of all of these moves it still seems to me that
33:55trump's overall position remains extremely strong he did win a second term he is
34:07so far in full control uh of his electoral base which appears to continue to support him um there's been
34:16some queries and statements of concern but i absolutely do not get the sense that trump's
34:24position is broken or anything like that but there is now some softness around the edges
34:36and that might explain some of the strange maneuvers that we have seen certainly it is very strange
34:44how we have gone from a position two weeks ago after trump's conversation with putin in which trump said
34:52came out of that conversation and said that the russians are not interested in a ceasefire let's
34:57forget about that let's see about getting negotiations between the russians and the ukrainians going
35:04to a position today when the americans are again talking about a ceasefire and seem to see the only purpose
35:13of the ceasefire of the ceasefire of the ceasefire or of the negotiations as bringing us to the point of a ceasefire
35:22so anyway there we are so this is where i think we have reached at the present time now let me
35:29say however that the fist in these negotiations the leverage is entirely on the russian side
35:44and i when i mean by leverage it's the russians who are in a position to make whatever ultimatum they
35:53present to the ukrainians on monday they're in a position to make that ultimatum effective because
36:00as trump has essentially admitted as you starting to see increasingly admitted in parts of the media in
36:12the west particularly the military parts of the media the media that specializes on military matters
36:22such as the reports by the royal united services institute in britain the reports that are appearing
36:29in large sections of the media in the united states that is specifically oriented towards military matters
36:38and it is very extensive anyway it is the russians who are in the driving seat in the war and who are
36:46winning and gaining ground and doing so every day so if the negotiations in istanbul are russia's version of the velvet glove
37:04the velvet glove absolutely comes with a mailed fist and that mailed fist is what is happening
37:14on the battlefronts now again time constraints limit what the detail of what i can say about what is
37:25actually going on on the battlefronts but the last 24 hours since i did my program um have it seems to me
37:36taken a massive decisive further turn on the battlefronts now redovka today um is has just published an article
37:46about the fighting in chasse of yard um it is now i think largely acknowledged in fact almost entirely
37:55acknowledged that the russians have indeed captured the central fortified positions in chasse of yard
38:03there are only a few outline areas left and redovka today is reporting that the russians that the 98th
38:13guards airborne division the force the division that has fought the battle for chasse of yard
38:24and which has been the main force in this area that the russians have deployed ever since the
38:30uh wagner organization was pulled out um in may 2023 anyway the 98th guards airborne division according
38:40to redovka is now beginning its final assault on the remaining ukrainian positions in the um westernmost
38:50suburbs of chasse of yard and redovka is writing as if the russians expect that the whole of chasse of yard
38:59will pass under their control within the next couple of days um when i mean the next couple of days
39:06i mean i don't mean weeks or a week or so um apparently there's lift little left now to capture
39:16central chasse of yard is under russian control the important village of stupochki is under russian
39:22control the russians control a large belt of territory to the north of chasse of yard which provides them
39:29with strategic depth in this area redovka says that ukrainian reinforcements which have been sent to hold
39:39positions in the konstantinovka area have been deployed to the south not to the chasse of yard area
39:50because that the situation is so critical in these other places the chasse of yard is being given less
39:57priority so that there are relatively few ukrainian troops left defending chasse of yard anyway one way
40:06or the other it does now look as if this battle for chasse of yard and by the way the larger battle
40:12for the whole bachmut conurbation of which chasse of yard is ultimately a part that that battle is about
40:20to end and all of this has happened as the territory south of konstantinovka in which i said that some
40:31ukrainian troops appeared to have been caught in a cauldron that this area has now passed entirely
40:39under russian control it is not clear what happened to the ukrainian troops who were there whether they
40:46escaped whether uh they were captured whether they were killed there's no reports about this but all of
40:53the major mapping projects appear to confirm that this area south of konstantinovka has now passed entirely
41:02under russian control and the russians continue to advance around konstantinovka and of course if
41:10when chasse of yard is fully brought under russian control then the russians will have the high ground
41:19ground relative to konstantinovka and the ability of the ukrainians to defend konstantinovka will no
41:29doubt start to be limited and the russians have been advancing in all sorts of other places as well
41:39and the most dramatic advances appear to be taking place around pokrovsk the russians have made taken
41:46strong positions to the southwest of pokrovsk i believe that they are actually entrenched in the
41:54southern suburbs of pokrovsk but perhaps the most alarming development for the ukrainians is that the
42:02russians are pushing north east of pokrovsk locations which just a few weeks ago back in march
42:15i don't think anybody would have expected them to advance so fast in this area anyway i don't think
42:22it's the case any longer that you can speak of pokrovsk being taken in some kind of semi-circle or
42:29anything like that or pincers i think that outright encirclement of pokrovsk is now becoming a real
42:38possibility and our old friend andrei marochko has now also been talking about the situation around
42:45pokrovsk he has said that ukrainian reserves around pokrovsk have been almost entirely defeated he's
42:55perhaps exaggerating but he does look as if the russians as i said are pushing north from malinivka
43:03capturing other places north east of pokrovsk they're coming very close to controlling all the
43:11supply lines their drones are active all around the pokrovsk area the speed of the russian advances
43:20in this area at least appears to be measured by kilometers a day rather than the hundreds of meters
43:28that some people are saying in fact my general sense if i have to be frank right across the battle
43:35fronts and i'm not even going to discuss what's going on in the south donetsk area towards the
43:40dnieper by the way or in zaporozhya region where there was have been important russian advances
43:47my own overall sense is not not only are the russians advancing right across the battlefronts but they
43:54are advancing against disintegrating ukrainian resistance right across the battlefronts once upon a time
44:05if the russians advanced and captured a position the ukrainians would immediately counter-attack
44:13there would then be in counter battle it might last several days or even weeks eventually the russians
44:19would prevail and would consolidate and then they would move on and the pattern would repeat itself
44:26now as far as i can see the russians capture places ukrainian resistance is
44:31so light that they're not able to launch counter-attacks and the russians therefore are able to move on
44:42and advance and capture other places still this was the pattern in the summer of 2024
44:52in the enormous russian advance that took place west of avdevka towards pakrovsk i remember noticing it
45:01there that the russians would be able to take one settlement and then move on to the next settlement
45:08ukrainian resistance would be very disorganized and didn't seem to be able to hold them back but it's now
45:14happening not just in one sector but right across the front lines and there is also there are also
45:23reports that the russians are doing the same thing in the sumi and kharkov areas regions that the russians
45:33have now crossed the border in other areas into kharkov region that they seem to be intent on consolidating
45:41control of a large territory in kharkov region linking up their um forces in volchansk which have now
45:51essentially captured northern well have captured apparently northern volchansk with uk uh russian
45:58forces in the area of kupyansk and again i don't get the sense of very strong resistance from this
46:07in this area from the ukrainians either and in suvi region the russian advance appears to be if
46:17anything faster still the ukrainians are holding out still in the fortified village of yunakovka but
46:27there are reports that this village is about to fall under russian control as well and well there's supposed
46:35to be a forest between yunakovka and the city of sumi and there's been much speculation that the
46:43ukrainians could establish strong fortified positions there except that the russians are now advancing into
46:50other areas of sumi region as well and it looks to me i mean from what i can tell of the map and to
46:58be clear i'm not a good person at reading maps but it looks to me as if they could probably bypass
47:03this forest if they needed to and um yesterday there were reports that the russians have captured
47:11the village of i believe it's called it's an important village near liman and in the siversk area
47:22it looks to me as if siversk is now hanging by a thread just saying and that the russians could be
47:31soon in a position to start and advance towards liman as well and of course if liman is captured
47:39apparently that is also high ground relative to slaviansk and other places so a military crisis
47:48right across the front lines um the russians have established complete drone dominance
47:54and the skies every night are filled with russian drones there was a major russian strike by the way
48:05on ukrainian positions on the black sea so it's a absolutely critical indeed disastrous military
48:15situation and it seems to me that all the attention that's been given to the diplomacy the negotiations
48:24is taking away attention from this um i read an article in the french newspaper which spoke about how the
48:33ukrainian troops are exhausted demoralized that they feel that the situation is becoming hopeless
48:41one would have thought that what is going on on the battlefields in what is after all the war
48:49is perhaps more important than what is going on in the negotiating table in istanbul
48:55especially when the positions of these two parties the russians and the ukrainians is so far apart
49:03it could be this is perhaps something to say that everybody the russians the ukrainians the americans
49:12the europeans all agree in for their own different reasons on one thing which is let's keep the
49:19attention away from the growing disaster on the battlefronts let's keep on all the focus on what goes on
49:28in a room in the domba bache palace in istanbul let's all worry too much about the fact that chas of
49:36yara is about to fall and konstantivna is about to fall and pakrovsk is about to fall and that the
49:43ukrainian army is disintegrating and that attempts to enlist more troops into the ukrainian army have been
49:51a complete failure let's not talk or discuss or comment about any of that because we don't want
49:59people to start doing reckless and extreme things like launching missile strikes on moscow
50:08let's keep them for the time being at least talking talking about negotiations in istanbul
50:18which i'm going nowhere well maybe i'm being altogether too cynical here and i suspect i am
50:24i'm sure that nobody in any of the western capitals or in moscow is actually thinking in this way
50:33certainly zelensky who continues to show no sign of any interest in negotiations
50:41he continues to demand more and more military assistance from the united states he's made
50:49further comments saying that the united states has a duty to defend ukraine
50:55even if it perhaps feels itself unwilling to do so which is an extraordinary statement by the way
51:06again pointing to the extreme sense of entitlement that the ukrainians appear to have they're unwilling
51:12to negotiate they're unwilling to make concessions they're unwilling to do anything they but they do
51:18demand they insist that they be given everything that they want and that has been the story with them
51:27well since 2014 when the maidan coup seizure of power revolution call it whatever you will took place
51:39anyway there we are this is where i'm going to finish today's program be interesting tomorrow to find out
51:47whether we got any more news about the negotiations on monday and it'd be interesting to see also where
51:54the further developments on the military fronts are for the rest i can't myself see the trajectory either
52:03of the negotiations or of the war changing and i suspect that over the summer it will be mostly a discussion
52:14these programs will be mostly a discussion of military developments leading to a crisis situation
52:24perhaps in the autumn when ukraine's imminent defeat can no longer be concealed from western politicians
52:39or from the western public and then we will probably see a huge huge crisis
52:49crisis and debate about what if anything the west should do well that's my program for today be more
52:58from me soon let me remind you again you can find all our programs on our various platforms locals rumble and
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