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00:00It's game number one, Rafael Marchand for Philadelphia
00:03with the bases juiced in the home half of the eighth,
00:06plunked by a pitch, scores the game-winning run for Philadelphia.
00:10They take the opening game of a doubleheader split,
00:13but then because of a great performance out of Chris Sale
00:16and an uncharacteristically poor performance out of Zach Wheeler
00:19in that second game, the Braves avoid a sweep
00:22in both the doubleheader and the series and win the finale 9-3.
00:27Yeah, the backup catcher, Rafael Marchand,
00:29also had that two-run home run early in the game,
00:31so three RBI included the winning RBI in that game,
00:33and a game that saw the Phillies up 2-0, 4-2,
00:36and eventually tied at 4-4.
00:37Oh, no, there's that bullpen, and it was real shaky
00:39into the ninth inning, but they picked up that victory,
00:42and again, the shocking thing was that game being a win
00:44by the Phillies, not.
00:45The second game that with Zach Wheeler, you go up against Chris Sale,
00:48you think it's probably going to be lower scoring
00:49and still give the advantage to the Philadelphia Phillies.
00:51He got cracked right off the bat there yesterday,
00:53so a big win for the Atlanta Braves as they return home.
00:55The Phillies, I believe, play the Milwaukee Brewers at home today,
00:58but a split in that game yesterday for the doubleheader
01:01of those two games, but the Phillies won the series here,
01:04pushing the Braves a little bit farther down that ladder.
01:06And a pretty good outing, of course, in that second game
01:09for Chris Sale, and when I say pretty good, I mean really good.
01:12Six innings of shutout baseball, only allowing two base knocks,
01:16and struck out eight.
01:17Chris Sale, DRS, now the fastest pitcher in MLB history
01:21by innings to record 2,500 career strikeouts.
01:25So the Braves get a much-needed win.
01:27So let's quickly look at the updated NLE standings
01:30and the updated NLE odds.
01:33The Philadelphia Phillies in that top spot,
01:35not just the best record in the division,
01:37but the best record overall at 36-20 in the NL.
01:40And now, after winning this midweek set against Atlanta,
01:44a stronger favorite to win the divisional crown at minus 140.
01:48They're nine and a half games up over the Braves, DRS,
01:51but probably more importantly, closest competition,
01:54the New York Mets, 34 and 22.
01:56The Amazons, like many teams, off on a Thursday around MLB.
02:00A two-game difference there between the Phillies in the top spot
02:04and the Mets trailing behind.
02:07Yeah, and also, you're taking a look at, you know,
02:09the rest of the season, how it goes.
02:10The Phillies by far have the better pitching staff
02:12than all of those teams, including the New York Mets
02:14and the Atlanta Braves.
02:15The one interesting part yesterday that we sort of glossed over
02:17game number one, A.J. Smith-Schalver was on the mound.
02:20He gets hit by a comeback liner off of his calf,
02:24but that wasn't the issue.
02:25He left the game because he said it hurt a pop in his forearm
02:27and or elbow, which is never a good sign.
02:30Immediately placed on the IL.
02:31And that's one of those good young pitchers
02:33that can groove it up there, 98, 99 miles an hour
02:35to go along with Schwellenbach
02:36and also obviously Spencer Strider.
02:38You can't afford to lose good pitchers
02:40throughout the summer months here.
02:41And if that's something of an extended absence,
02:44that's going to hurt the Atlanta Braves here.
02:46So we'll see if we get some information back on him.
02:47Sooner than later, but that's never a good sign
02:49where a pitcher has to leave the game early.
02:51Atlanta still remains sub 500, 26 and 29,
02:55three games below 500, plus 750.
02:57You see the number there to win the NL East.
03:00Donnie, the story for Atlanta is probably not a divisional crown,
03:03but just making the expanded NL postseason,
03:06entering this series against Philadelphia.
03:08The price on Atlanta to still make the playoffs,
03:10being below 500 after the 0-7 start
03:13and what that means in the history of qualifying for the postseason
03:17in Major League Baseball.
03:18It was minus 118 for the Braves.
03:21More favored to make the playoffs than miss.
03:23Now it's been flipped to make the postseason as minus 104,
03:27to miss out on the playoffs for the Braves,
03:30minus 118.
03:31A little bit more juice for Atlanta
03:33to not be a playoff team here in 2025.
03:37Donnie, if I ask you right here, right now,
03:39at the end of May with the Braves firmly on Fork Watch,
03:43does Atlanta make it to the NL postseason?
03:46What's your answer?
03:47I think there's a chance they can do that.
03:49Fork Watch in the NL East, yeah,
03:51it's probably going to be the Phillies and or the Mets here
03:52because they have to have a massive comeback
03:54and crazy things would have to happen.
03:56But when you're talking about them jumping teams,
03:58all right, the Diamondbacks, the Reds, the Brewers,
04:00the Giants, the Cardinals, you know where I'm going with that?
04:02It's like, all right, they're not great teams
04:04and they're not nine and a half games back
04:06to make the wild card at this point.
04:08They're too good an organization, have too much talent
04:10just to say, well, we're going to play under 500 baseball
04:12from June 1st all the way through the end of September.
04:15I don't think that's going to happen.
04:16They're going to be above 500, which will put them in the mix.
04:19I'm not shutting the door on the playoffs,
04:21but I am essentially shutting the door
04:22on them with a chance to win the division.