Poland to vote in razor-tight presidential election

FRANCE 24 English

Poland votes on Sunday in a hotly contested presidential run-off that will pit the pro-EU Warsaw mayor against a nationalist historian in a tight race that could extend the political deadlock in the NATO member nation. Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling centrists, and Karol Nawrocki, a political novice supported by the opposition Law and Justice party, are running neck-and-neck in opinion polls. We speak to Radosław Markowski, Professor of Political Science at the Polish Academy of Sciences.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00This is Apropos.

00:04Well, they're polling so close that analysts say the outcome is impossible to predict.

00:09A liberal pro-European mayor is facing off against a staunch nationalist conservative

00:14in Poland's run-off presidential election this Sunday,

00:18leaving voters with a stark ideological choice.

00:21As our correspondent, Clifford Craig reports,

00:24surveys suggest that if only younger voters had been allowed to cast a ballot in the first round,

00:29neither of those candidates would have made it through to the second.

00:34If there are still some posters of Adrian Zandberg visible in this small Western Polish town,

00:40it's thanks to Bartosz Kornacki, who campaigned tirelessly for the left-wing candidate.

00:47He says he was fighting a losing battle with fans of the far-right's Sławomir Mensen,

00:52an ultra-liberal economist whom Bartosz used to support.

00:55He convinced me with this dream that I would get rich if only I worked hard,

01:01but I got a reality check when I lost my first job and was broke.

01:05I basically got zero help from the state,

01:07and if Mensen had been in power, it would have been even worse.

01:13Poland's youth are frustrated, he says,

01:15not to be benefiting more from the country's remarkable economic growth.

01:18We are now the world's 21st biggest economy.

01:23We could afford to have better working conditions,

01:25but we don't see the same policies over here as we see in other EU countries.

01:30With property prices here rising twice as fast as wages,

01:34Bartosz was attracted by Zandberg's promise to build affordable housing.

01:38I have a decent salary around the national average,

01:41yet I'm still renting and spending more than a third of my income on rent.

01:45Among under-30s, the leftist candidate came in second,

01:51with the far-right Mensen in the lead.

01:53Both benefited from an anti-establishment mood among frustrated youth.

01:59I voted for Zandberg.

02:01We're fed up of both the main parties.

02:03They're all liars.

02:05Yeah, not that's fair.

02:07Far-right and far-left often coexist within the same couple here,

02:11though it's more often the other way around.

02:13Mensen wants to punish women for having abortions.

02:17I think his supporters don't know what they're actually voting for.

02:21They just see on TikTok how he's got his own bar and brewery.

02:25These young women said they would vote for Traskovsky in the second round

02:28as the pro-EU and pro-Ukraine candidate.

02:32But others here told me they mistrusted both Brussels and Kiev

02:35and would vote either for the nationalist Navrotsky or for no one at all.

02:39For more on what's at stake, we're joined now by Radislav Markovsky,

02:45Professor of Political Science at the Polish Academy of Sciences.

02:48Thanks so much, Professor, for being with us this evening.

02:52So those anti-establishment younger voters that were featured in that report,

02:57have they become an important voting bloc heading into Sunday's ballot?

03:00And where do you think they're likely to turn?

03:05They are important and they turned recently much more actively than,

03:11you know, some 10 or 15 years ago.

03:14Unfortunately, however, the youngest group, meaning 1830,

03:21currently in Poland are only half of the real numbers

03:25that were in place 20 or 25 years ago.

03:29So they are active, they have their preferences,

03:32but they are not as numerous as my age group.

03:37And if we talk about different age groups,

03:39then is that kind of anti-establishment mood that they were expressing,

03:43is that limited then to younger voters?

03:45Or are we seeing that reflected right across the electorate?

03:49Well, you know, we would need a lot of time to explain the details of that.

03:57But let me maybe say something.

03:59The important thing in this election is that, you know,

04:03over the past year and a half,

04:05Poland has been trying to restore the constitutional order

04:08and the rule of law, which were violated during the eight years from 2015 to 23.

04:14So the current elections are primarily about this,

04:18whether Poland will fully return to the family of civilized countries of liberal democracy or not.

04:25And young people in particular are very much interested in that.

04:30One should remember that the Polish president, unlike the French,

04:34has limited prerogatives.

04:36Poland is a parliamentary cabinet democracy,

04:39and executive power lies with the government and the prime minister.

04:42However, the president can either help that democracy realize its goals

04:48or hinder it, possessing certain veto powers and other obstructionist tools.

04:54And if you look at the supporters of the two candidates,

04:58and also of the parties that are behind them,

05:01it is clear that Rafał Czaszewski, the pro-European,

05:06supportive of European integration, multilateralism,

05:10tolerance of diversity person,

05:12a clear supporter of Ukraine in its war against Putin,

05:17has much more support of the younger generation

05:22than Karol Nawrotsky, who represents fundamentally different options,

05:28clearly anti-European, supportive of politics of hostility towards diversity,

05:34both ethnic, national and cultural,

05:37and also uncritical pro-Trump stance.

05:40And in a way, recently it turned out also an anti-Ukrainian

05:44and anti-European approach,

05:47including the defense integration of European Union.

05:51So the youngsters are mainly on the side

05:54of the progressive liberal cosmopolitan candidate,

05:57but obviously they had their first sincere voting preference

06:04with those ultra-leftist or ultra-rightist candidates

06:11who did not make it to the second round.

06:15And if Nawrotsky is successful on Sunday,

06:18what would you expect there in terms of how disruptive he might be

06:22towards Donald Tusk?

06:23Would it be more so than his predecessor has been?

06:27And also, how much power does the president actually have in Poland?

06:30Well, you know, these are the people who are in line with peace,

06:40that is, the party that has violated the basic principles of the Polish Constitution

06:46and has alienated most of our allies in the European Union.

06:50And they're absolutely uncritically pro-American, pro-US,

06:56and in particular, pro-Trumpist.

06:58So, yes, they will be, if elected, apart from the moral problems

07:07and all kinds of CV problems that we have with this candidate,

07:14he will definitely be an obstructive force against Tusk government.

07:21But again, as I mentioned at the beginning,

07:26his powers are limited to destruction.

07:30He has no positive power to make things happen,

07:35to accomplish certain policies,

07:37unless he collaborates with the government.

07:40And you mentioned Donald Trump there.

07:42He has, of course, thrown his weight behind the nationalist candidate

07:45and he sent his Homeland Security Secretary to Poland,

07:50Kristi Noem, sent to a meeting of the Conservative Pressure Group,

07:53the CPAC, where she offered a strong endorsement.

07:57We might just take a listen to a little bit of what she had to say.

08:02If you had elected a leader that will work with President Donald J. Trump,

08:08the Polish people will have an ally strong

08:11that will ensure that you will be able to fight off enemies

08:15that do not share your values.

08:18You will have strong borders and protect your communities

08:21and keep them safe

08:23and ensure that your citizens are respected every single day.

08:27You will continue to have a U.S. presence here,

08:30a military presence, Fort Trump,

08:34that we can work together for the security of both of our nations.

08:38Yeah, Radislav, Donald Trump dangling the prospect also

08:42of closer military ties if the nationalist candidate does become president.

08:46Is that having any kind of influence over voters in Poland?

08:51It might have, but my advice would be to the lady

08:55that she first of all looks into her president, namely,

08:58you know, a president which three days ago

09:02miraculously discovered that maybe there is something wrong

09:06with Vladimir Putin, whom he admires so much.

09:11So, you know, I'm coming from a country

09:13in which a rank-and-file secondary school pupil

09:18knows that there is something wrong with Vladimir Putin

09:21and this kind of advisers by President Trump,

09:25who actually supports precisely all those forces in Europe,

09:30Orbán, Salvini, the Spanish Vox, not to mention more,

09:34who are supportive or totally dependent on Russia and Kremlin.

09:40So, you know, I mean, it might play a role for some,

09:44but those people who are better sophisticated

09:47in international politics would have,

09:52yeah, I mean, doubts whether this makes sense.

09:55Americans are here anyway, and I don't think the choice

10:00of a president one way or another would either enhance

10:05this presence or not.

10:06I don't think so.

10:08And finally, Professor, we're hearing that the outcome

10:11of this election could have implications for Poland's relations

10:14with the EU, with Ukraine.

10:16Would you agree?

10:16Well, definitely, as I've said at the beginning,

10:22I mean, the foreign policy is run by the government

10:25and by prime minister and minister of foreign affairs,

10:29but definitely it could jeopardize some initiatives.

10:33For instance, Karol Nawrotsky is at odds

10:37and he doesn't really want to get into the boosting

10:42of the so-called Weimar Triangle between Paris, Berlin and Warsaw,

10:47which is so important for Poland.

10:49And also they have this strange kind of initiatives,

10:52which sound pretty infantile,

10:55that, you know, we should establish some kind of trimare,

10:59the coalitions.

11:00Instead of joining with major forces in the European Union,

11:05we should establish, which is supported by Trump and America,

11:10we should establish closer links with Georgia, Moldova, Lithuania

11:16and the like.

11:18With all due respect to these countries,

11:20we have good relationships with them,

11:22but it cannot be at the expense

11:24of the European Union relationships, for sure.

11:27Okay, Professor, we'll have to leave it there for now.

11:29Thanks so much for being with us, though.

11:30That is Radislav Markowski from the Polish Academy of Sciences.

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