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  • 5/29/2025
In a dramatic shakeup of the world economy, China has begun canceling trade in US dollars, signaling a massive shift in global financial dynamics. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ’ฑ This bold maneuver threatens the dominance of the dollar in international markets and could potentially disrupt a $40 trillion market. As Beijing pushes for greater control and influence, experts warn this could accelerate a new era of economic rivalry and reshape the global order. ๐Ÿฆโš”๏ธ

What does this mean for the future of trade, currency stability, and geopolitical power? Stay tuned as we break down the unfolding showdown. ๐Ÿ“‰๐ŸŒ

#ChinaEconomy #USDDominance #GlobalTrade #EconomicPowerShift #ChinaTrade #CurrencyWar #WorldEconomy #FinancialMarkets #ChinaUSD #GlobalFinance #TradeWars #DollarDecline #Geopolitics #EconomicRivalry #ChinaPowerPlay #GlobalMarkets #CurrencyShift #EconomicImpact #TradeDynamics #WorldAffairs

Transcript
00:00This week you may have seen multiple reports saying China is no longer buying U.S. dollars
00:05or better yet, the Chinese government told its banks to cancel all dollar-denominated
00:11trades.
00:12Today we're going to discuss, without panicking, what's actually going on and why it matters.
00:19This is one of my main goals here on YouTube, as you know, to discuss trends and recent
00:24events using reliable sources in a way that helps you understand what's going on and what
00:30to expect moving forward.
00:32In a world where currencies are more than just numbers on a screen, where every fluctuation
00:37echoes through economies, boardrooms, and family tables, China is drawing a very clear
00:44line in the sand, and in a very consistent manner, it makes it very clear that it's very
00:51much unwilling to serve the interests of other actors.
00:55As pressure mounts on its currency, the yuan, China's central bank has stepped in.
01:01Behind the scenes, a quiet storm is indeed brewing, one where the People's Bank of China
01:07is taking steps to have a better handle on the yuan, even as global trade battles and
01:14global trade tensions escalate.
01:16So let's unpack the forces here at play, and what happens next may actually reshape the
01:24future of global finance.
01:26Of course, it began with trade.
01:28Tensions between the United States and China escalated to a tariff war that feels less like
01:36negotiations and more like economic trench warfare, if you will.
01:40Massive tariffs, some as high as 145%, have, of course, rattled China's export sector.
01:49It had to reorient itself towards other markets, and it impacted the United States in a very
01:55negative way.
01:56And markets have been anything but quiet.
01:59There's been extreme volatility.
02:01The yuan has been falling down 1.3% in just a few weeks.
02:05Of course, the message was very clear.
02:07Global investors are starting to lose faith.
02:11Speculators were circling.
02:13But truth be told, global investors have been losing faith in the US dollar, too, for years.
02:19As I mentioned previously in a recent video, the value of the US dollar compared to a basket
02:25of currencies have been on a downward spiral.
02:29It has been on a downward spiral.
02:31The dollar has lost nearly 6% of its value since January of this year.
02:36So the trade war initiated by President Trump serves no one, as we can clearly tell by now.
02:43But unlike previous downturns, the People's Bank of China isn't actually letting market
02:48forces do the worst this time.
02:51Rather than announce sweeping policies on national TVs or in national news outlets, the People's
02:58Bank of China opted for what it calls window guidance.
03:03Its signature style of quiet, yet extremely potent influence.
03:08According to Bloomberg, state-owned banks were instructed to ease up on US dollar purchases
03:14using their own funds.
03:17They were not told to stop making those purchases completely or to cancel existing transactions.
03:24That is not the case here at all.
03:26Banks were instructed to decrease the number of those transactions.
03:31And not only that, they are now tasked with scrutinizing dollar purchases made by their
03:38clients too.
03:39And of course, that is a very subtle yet powerful message.
03:44Speculative trading is not going to be tolerated in this environment.
03:48Now, this may be a temporary move.
03:51This is not something that is set in stone for years to come.
03:54So this is a policy change that may be reversed at any given point in time when geopolitical
04:00tensions change or when both parties, when the United States and China, adjust to new realities
04:09otherwise.
04:10And of course, on the trading floor, the action was quite swift.
04:14China's big banks began selling dollars and buying yuan to effectively prop up its value.
04:20This isn't just about numbers, of course.
04:23Some professionals in finance and in economics consider this to be a full-on intervention,
04:29which it definitely is.
04:31It is a government intervention, which, let's be honest, happens in the United States too.
04:36Most recently, one president says that the Fed is actually slow to react and must cut rates.
04:44Remember, it happened several weeks ago.
04:46What is the aim of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, stepping in?
04:51Well, the top goals here are to curb the speculation, to stabilize sentiment, and most importantly,
05:00to avoid panic.
05:02Now, you might ask, why not just let the yuan fall to boost exports?
05:07Because that would serve China's exporters.
05:10And that would, of course, be a great logical question to ask here.
05:15After all, a weaker yuan could actually make Chinese goods cheaper on global markets and,
05:21therefore, more attractive abroad.
05:24Well, in my opinion, the answer lies in confidence.
05:27I think confidence is the key word here.
05:30A sharp depreciation might help in the short term, sure, and it would certainly serve as
05:36a catalyst for Chinese goods internationally.
05:39But it could also trigger capital flight, capital outflow, and it could actually shake global
05:46trust in the Chinese economy.
05:49By the way, let's quickly check the numbers.
05:52China's nominal GDP is estimated to be around $19.2 trillion in 2025, making it the second largest
06:02economy in the world after the United States.
06:06China's GDP, when measured by purchasing power parity, is estimated to be $40.7 trillion,
06:15placing it as the world's largest second-to-none economy.
06:20Bloomberg reports, the central bank has made a conscious decision.
06:25No sharp devaluation.
06:27Instead, modest and controlled movement is acceptable.
06:32The aim is to achieve a degree of balance, supporting exports while keeping financial markets
06:38stable.
06:39This is a very, very wise move.
06:42In the words of one policy advisor, a sharp depreciation will not happen, but a modest one
06:48will help.
06:50And where depreciation won't help, subsidies, tax rebates, and market diversification will
06:56also be handy.
06:58But there's another side to this story, and this is something that I want to draw your
07:02attention to.
07:03While defending the yuan at home, China is also pushing quite hard for its use abroad.
07:10This month, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, raised the required share of yuan
07:16in cross-border trade transactions from 25% to 40%.
07:21Again, it's not mandatory, and I want to emphasize this.
07:24It is not something that is mandatory.
07:27China doesn't technically order anyone do anything, but noncompliance does affect banks'
07:34regulatory score and their ability to grow.
07:37So it does encourage certain behavior, certain market behavior via its guidance.
07:43Why does this matter?
07:44Well, because every transaction in yuan actually does chip away at the dollar's dominance in
07:51one way or another.
07:52It is a long process, of course.
07:54With Washington ramping up tariffs, and, you know, we only have a 90-day pause in this,
08:00so we have yet to see what transpires with respect to the U.S.-China trade war, China sees
08:06opportunity here, not just to defend its currency as it should, but also to alleviate it globally.
08:13As of January, about 30% of China's goods trade was settled in yuan, and that number is climbing.
08:21It has been on the rise.
08:23Discounts for exporters and streamlined settlement services make switching even more attractive.
08:30What is the message to the world here?
08:33The yuan isn't just a Chinese currency anymore.
08:35It is a global one in waiting, and while China may not pursue to overthrow the U.S. dollar,
08:42it does pursue a far more equal and safe for the Global South financial framework.
08:49And we can clearly see that it is acting in a very wise and very measured manner.
08:55All of this is happening as the global financial system undergoes quiet seismic shifts.
09:01The U.S. dollar has long been the foundation of international trade,
09:05but if China continues to succeed in deepening yuan-based trade,
09:11we could see the beginning of a serious shift, too.
09:14That doesn't mean the dollar is going anywhere anytime soon.
09:19As I pointed out just last week, it is a long process.
09:22The dollar is not dead, not yet, but the balance of power has begun to tilt.
09:29For businesses, this could, of course, mean new currency risks.
09:33For banks, a race to integrate yuan-denominated systems, which they have already started doing.
09:40Many Global South banks are diversifying quite quickly.
09:45And for governments, this means, effectively, this is a reminder that the currency you trust today
09:52might not be the only game in town tomorrow.
09:56And at the very center of this all is China quietly nudging the levers of global finance without saying a word.
10:06It is acting, and it is definitely eyeing a very long-term strategy.
10:12So what's next?
10:13We may not see headlines screaming currency war anytime soon, of course,
10:18but the battle is indeed underway, measured in percentages and policies and meetings behind closed doors.
10:28The People's Bank of China is playing the long game, as I just pointed out,
10:32defending its currency, safeguarding market stability,
10:36and laying the groundwork, if you will, for a more yuan-centric financial world,
10:43something that the global majority is very much ready to embrace.
10:48This isn't just a financial story, it is a geopolitical one, too.
10:51So stay tuned for more updates here on my channel and on my sub stack.
10:56You will find the links in the video description below.
10:59I would love to see you on my sub stack.
11:01Thank you very much for watching.
11:03Remember to show your support.
11:05It goes a long way.
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11:07It really means a lot to me.
11:09And subscribe to my sub stack at worldaffairsandcontext.com.
11:14Enjoy the rest of your day, and I will see you back here tomorrow.
11:17Bye for now.

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